- Nov 11 - Nov 4 - Oct 27 - Initial Analysis -
Nov 4 - Boys National
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form, with rank 2 weeks ago)
1. AJ Acosta, CA (1)
2. Craig Miller PA (4)
3. Diego Mercado CA (5)
4. Sandy Roberts NC (2)
5. Mohamud Ige CO (3)
6. Jack Bolas NC (9)
7. Michael Eaton KY (HM)
8. Justin Harbor, FL (6)
9. Ben Sitler CA (NR)
10. Issac Stoutenburgh, OR (7)
11. Kenny Klotz, OR (8)
12. Brock Hagerman IN (NR)
13. Ben Massam NJ (NR)
14. Sintayehu Taye ME (HM)
15. Danny Mercado CA (NR)
HM: Mike Cybulski CA (10), Ayalew Taye MA, Daniel Roberts CO, Matthew Tebo NM, Jeff Helmer WA, Riley Booker CA, Matt Dettman IL, Steve Duplinsky (MD)
Analysis
The Californians and Carolinians are crowding the top of my second set of Foot Locker rankings, but it could also be a swimmer/miler from PA who takes the national title when it is all said and done.
With my top two, A.J. Acosta CA and Sandy Roberts NC suffering mild upsets in the last two weeks, the top of the rankings has been squeezed together a bit. Their conquerors, Diego Mercado (over A.J. at Mt. SAC) and Jack Bolas (over Sandy in a regional meet last Saturday), respectively, haven’t quite unseated them, however.
I’m still giving A.J. the benefit of the doubt at Balboa Park, basically his home course, but Diego seems to own Mt. SAC right now (see the FL West rankings!). As for Roberts, my gut feeling is that he may have had a bad day, but Bolas is improving, too. Thus, you can see their order on top. For the Californians, the “The Road to State,” as they call it at DyeStatCal, has just begun. For Roberts and Bolas, it’s here. We’ll check back with them after Saturday.
Meanwhile, look who’s at No. 2: PA’s unbeaten Craig Miller will run his final race as a harrier in his home state at the PIAA champs Saturday, but our Northeast Editor Don Rich (also penntrackxc.com) says he may only run as hard as needed to win. However, his fast steady performances all year, along with the maturity that’s grown from his spring campaign (4:07 mile) to now, have convinced me he’s right there for the national title with the guys I just mentioned.
We’ve got some newcomers to the rankings, of course (as yours truly continues to try and figure out what’s going on and make sense of it!). Before we close the book on Mt. SAC, you can see two more whose ranking was the beneficiary of their performance on the hills and switchbacks were Californians Ben Sitler (individual sweepstakes winner over Issac Stoutenburgh) and Danny Mercado (almost beat A.J., too).
Then there’s No. 7 Michael Eaton. The Kentucky standout ran a nation-leading 14:36 October 26 at the Warren County/City meet that we’re told is legit … and why not? It’s his fourth clocking at 15:06 or better this year. While Michael hasn’t had comp in or out of the Bluegrass State this fall, and didn’t run that great at FL Nationals last year after a fine FL South race, he certainly seems ready now. We’ll see at FL South or Mideast Meet of Champions in Ohio, if he goes. Craig Miller, for one, is reportedly headed to MMOC, too. What a matchup THAT would be!
My expanded rankings also includes Brock Hagerman (IN state champ), Ben Massam (unbeaten in NJ) and Sintayehu Taye (the MA soph phenom).
Notes: Don’t forget Mohamud Ige. He won the CO state meet last weekend in 15:39, after winning his region the week before. He wasn’t overwhelming in either, though earlier in October he blazed a 15:01 in a city meet … Justin Harbor FL has breezed to conference and district wins since his Manhattan triumph; regionals and states the next two weeks for him … Kenny Klotz and Issac Stoutenburgh will face off in the OR state meet Saturday.
Initial Analysis - Boys National
steveu's favorites
(based on credentials and current form)
1. A.J. Acosta, CA
2. Sandy Roberts, NC
3. Justin Harbor, FL
4. Craig Miller, PA
5. Diego Mercado, CA
6. Issac Stoutenburgh, OR
7. Kenny Klotz, OR
8. Mohamud Ige, CO
9. Jack Bolas, NC
10. Mike Cybulski, CA
HM: Tayes, Tebo, Eaton, Helmer, Miller
Bios
A.J. Acosta, 2006, (West) El Camino H.S., Oceanside CA
2005 CC: 1st Stanford 15:13, 1st Mt. Carmel (2.95M) 14:40
2005 Track: 4:10.08y ? USATF Distance Carnival, 6th NON 4:12.46y, 6th Arcadia 9:05.18y
2004 CC: 9th FLN 15:38, 5th FLW 15:50
Sandy Roberts, 2006, (South) Broughton H.S., Raleigh NC
2005 CC: 1st Great American ROC 15:03, 1st Wendy’s 15:03
2005 Track: 6th NON 8:59.23y, 4th Arcadia 9:03.44y, 4:08.7y 1st Under the Stars,
2004 CC: 16th FLN 15:50, 9th FLS 15:06
Justin Harbor, 2006, (South) Flagler Palm Coast H.S., Palm Coast FL
2005 CC: 1st flrunners.com 15:27,
2005 Track: 3:54.07 ? Boston HP, 4:12.13 1st Fla. Region, 8:24.19 Boston HP, 15th NON 9:14.26y
2004 CC: 40th FLN 17:09, 3rd FLS 14:57
Craig Miller, 2006, (Northeast) Manheim Twp. H.S., Lancaster PA
2005 CC:
2005 Track: 2nd NON 4:07.19y, 9:10.78 1st District
2004 CC: 15th FLN 15:46, 8th FLNE 15:43,
Diego Mercado, 2006, (West) West Covina H.S., West Covina CA
2005 CC: 2nd Stanford 15:19,
2005 Track: 4:14.71 7th SS Masters (?), 4:14.79 4th Sou. Section, 8:37.08 (3k) 3rd Pasadena, 9:04.84 2nd SS Masters, 11th Arcadia 9:09.75y.
2004 CC: 20th FLN 15:55, 3rd FLW 15:46
Issac Stoutenburgh, 2006, Crater Central Point H.S., OR
2005 CC: 1st Jim Danner 15:03, 1st NW Classic 15:30,
2005 Track: 9th USATF Jr. 3:53.99, 8:30.74 5th OR 4A State,
2004 CC:
Kenny Klotz, 2006, (West) Central Catholic H.S., Beaverton OR
2005 CC: 2nd Jim Danner 15:03,
2005 Track: 3:53.77 1st Jesuit Twilight, 12th NON 4:15.75y, 8:21.24 2nd 4AState, 9th Arcadia 9:08.09.
2004 CC: 24th FLN 16:03, 6th FLW
Mohamud Ige, 2006, (Midwest) Denver South H.S., Denver CO
2005 CC: 2nd Great American ROC 15:13,
2005 Track: 3rd GWI 9:03.54, 4:11.97 ? Music City,
2004 CC: 13th FLN 15:44,
Jack Bolas, 2006, (South) Chapel Hill H.S., Chapel Hill NC
2005 CC: 3rd Great American ROC 15:20,
2005 Track: 4:08.23 1st 4A State, 4th NON 4:10.48y, 2m?
2004 CC: 31st FLN 16:21, 5th FLS 15:01
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- Nov 11 -- Nov 4 - Oct 27 - Initial Analysis -
Nov 4 - Girls National
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Aislinn Ryan NY (1)
2. Marie Lawrence NV (2)
3. Elizabeth Yetzer MN (3)
4. Keara Sammons CO (4)
5. Megan O’Reilly WA (HM)
6. Jordan Hasay CA (HM)
7. Ashley Brasovan FL (6)
8. Kauren Tarver CA (5)
9. Annie St. Geme CA (7)
10. Brittany Sedberry NJ (NR)
11. Danielle Tauro NJ (NR)
12. Betsy Bies SD (HM)
12. Nicole Blood NY (8)
13. Cassie Hintz ME (9)
14. Aurora Scott VA (10)
15. Kate Niehaus SC (HM)
HM: Kari Hardt AZ, Emily Borsare GA, Amanda Griggs NY, Katy Andrews CA, Shannon Murakami CA, Lauren Saylor CA, Kevyn Murphy CA, Merideth Snow MO, Bria Wetsch MN, Dani Parry CO, Katie Vanatta CO, Allison Eckert SD, Krista Eckert SD, Jenny Morgan MI, Kelly Parrish FL, Caitlin Lane NY, Hannah Davidson NY, Lindsay Ferguson NY
Analysis:
Guys, don’t take this the wrong way, but I just don’t know if you can compare with the girls when it comes to generating pre-Foot Locker excitement.
I just shake my head when I look at the list of girls that I’m trying to work with this year. Maybe it’s the fact that last year’s 1-2 are returning better than ever. Or it could be that there’s so many great seniors (Aislinn Ryan NY, Liz Yetzer MN, Keara Sammons CO, Annie St. Geme CA, Nicole Blood NY, etc., etc.) this year AND incredible freshmen like Jordan Hasay CA, Ashley Brasovan FL, Aurora Scott VA, and Briana Jackucewicz NJ.
Or maybe it’s that I think I’ve made a great top 15 … and then I look at who’s NOT on the list – Emily Borsare GA (16:59 5k), Lauren Saylor CA (3rd returnee), Amanda Griggs (16:53 3M), Kelly Parrish FL (10:22y), Merideth Snow (17:29 5k), and on and on – and I just want to cry. I’m sorry, girls, but everyone ahead of you is also a 17s 5k runner and/or has fantastic credentials. Who would you take off? But yes, some of you will probably surprise me by finishing in the top ten at San Diego (although I really won’t be surprised).
I could write forever about what these girls have done recently, but there’s a few high points we HAVE to hit … of girls who have moved way up in the rankings.
Last time I talked about Keara’s great competitive record, always being in the mix, but she hadn’t won a big one. Well, now she has. Last Saturday, she took down the great 5-A field in CO, including Danielle Parry, Ellie Rastall, Meredith MacGregor, and Katie Follett, and also bested Katie Vanatta for best time of all classes. Now it’s on to Kenosha and a showdown with Yetzer.
I “only” gave Megan O’Reilly an HM on my last list, but after her killer 17:01 at her WA region meet adding to her other fast times this year, I have to give the comebacking senior a solid top ten ranking.
“Air Jordan” Hasay proved her mettle at Mt. SAC, but if you were looking for more proof, she blitzed a 17:22 at her county championships. That was 2:10 ahead of second place and would have been 15th of 148 runners in the boys race. Yikes.
Then there’s the Jersey girls, who are building momentum toward what may be the greatest All-Group meet in state history. With past FL finalist Brittany Sedberry returning to form and Danielle Tauro tearing it up with sub-18 wins the past two weeks, I’ve revised my top ten for them, too.
But aside from the somewhat known quantities, those girls who are returning from San Diego last year, do I really know if O’Reilly and the Jersey girls are better than Borsare, Niehaus, Snow, Griggs, and others? No, I don’t. When you have great times for girls that have just run against their state, or just have one or two key results, it’s hard to compare. I feel good about my first four, but after that, it’s a crapshoot, at least until more results come in.
Is girls’ cross-country better, and deeper, than ever? It sure seems like it. More on these girls and others in my region reports later tonight.
Initial Analysis - Girls National
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Aislinn Ryan NY
2. Marie Lawrence NV
3. Elizabeth Yetzer MN
4. Keara Sammons CO
5. Kauren Tarver CA
6. Ashley Brasovan FL
7. Annie St. Geme CA
8. Nicole Blood NY
9. Cassie Hintz ME
10. Aurora Scott VA
HM: Lauren Saylor CA, Megan O’Reilly WA, Jordan Hasay CA, Merideth Snow MO, Bria Wetsch MN, Betsy Bies SD, Dani Parry CO, Katie Vanatta CO, Allison Eckert SD, Jenny Morgan MI, Kate Niehaus SC, Kelly Parrish FL
Analysis
In girls cross-country, it’s much more common to have more girls in the top 5-10 returning from the previous year’s FL Nationals and this year is no exception. It’s not every year, however, that the previous year’s stars are doing so well the next year, but that’s certainly the case in 2005.
Defending champ Aislinn Ryan has blazed the eastern half of the country and left it in ruins, winning the year’s biggest meets so far – Great American ROC and Manhattan – by huge margins with fast times. She has also dominated several smaller meets. After her somewhat surprising win in 2004, then having a very good but not mind-blowing track campaign, she’s come back better than ever this fall and is without a doubt the girl to beat.
Marie Lawrence, the pick of many to win last fall, chose to go the junior meet route rather than NON or GWI, and didn’t truly stun in track. But big wins at Stanford and Clovis have confirmed that she’s probably at least as good as last year and certainly ready to contend for the top prize after finishing second the last two years. Completing this year’s “Big Three” from the middle of the country is Elizabeth Yetzer, who rose from a back qualifier from FLMW to 7th in the country, then the queen of the track in the 2-mile last spring. She hasn’t had the chance to run quite the national competition the others have, but she did beat a few big names at the Roy Griak meet and has otherwise been dominating the 4k scene in Minnesota.
After that trio, things are much more challenging to sort out. While there’s 19 more returnees from San Diego, there’s at least that many non-qualifiers or newcomers who will be battling them for spots.
To wit: Keara Sammons is the No. 4 returnee, but has had a tough time fending off Dani Parry, Katie Follett and others from her own state. The California trio of Lauren Saylor, Kauren Tarver, and Alma Escobar have all had their moments, but face challenges from the likes of rising star Anne St. Geme and freshman Jordan Hasay for state honors.
Two Michigan returnees, Rebekah Smeltzer and Molly Waterhouse could be joined or replaced by Jenny Morgan, Erin LaFave, or Eileen Creutz, among others. Kelly Parrish has had freshman Ashley Brasovan to contend with in Florida. Betsy Bies, understudy to NTN champ Ramsey Kavan last year at Yankton SD, has exploded into prominence and challenged the Eckert sisters for Dakota dominance.
Then there’s the drama that is Saratoga. Last November, eyes popped as four ’Togans crossed the line in the first eight of the FLNE region meet. Were they the best team ever? The next week at NTN, they dominated, but the performances weren’t quite as impressive. The next week, attempting the difficult triple crown, they had mutually mediocre races in San Diego, with FLNE champ Nicole Blood just 21st. Then last spring, as everyone knows, Blood and Caitlin Lane left the team to train on their own. This fall, after looking good, but not great in races like Manhattan, Saratoga has fallen out of the national top spot. As for Blood and Lane, running in open/collegiate races here and there? Again, good but not great. For example, Blood ran the collegiate 5k at Great American. Her time of 17:43 ranked seventh. Has anyone benefited from this split?
So the task is how to sort it all out. You have to give the rising stars their due, but you can’t ignore experience. So Sammons, Miss Consistency, is fourth. Tarver (and this could change this weekend) is fifth, with Mt. SAC staring her and her Cali rivals in the face.
Then it’s two potential newcomers, Brasovan and St. Geme, next. With each additional triumph, they earn the chance to move up. Blood, with seemingly a lifetime of triumphs, is still eighth – and no one should doubt she could return to top form.
Finally, it’s Cassie Hintz, the Maine distance whiz who was 2nd to Ryan at Great American, and Aurora Scott, who beat Blood in the university race. They, too, have plenty of chances to rise on the list.
Bios
1. Aislinn Ryan, 2006, (NE) Warwick Valley H.S., Bellvale NY
2005 CC: 1st Eastern States 14:04 (2.5M), 1st Great American ROC 17:06, 1st Paul Short 17:03, 1st Purple Wave 16:55
2005 Track: 2nd NON 10:20.02y, 9:39.5 (3k) 1st Section, 9:44.2 1st State, 4:28.99 (1500) 2nd State
2004 CC: 1st FLN 17:31, 2nd FLNE 17:47
2. Marie Lawrence, 2007, (W) West Reno H.S. Reno NV
2005 CC: 1st Stanford 17:26, 1st Clovis 17:19, 1st Elko 18:04
2005 Track: 1st U.S. Jr. 9:44.85 (3k), 2nd Golden West 4:48.32y
2004 CC: 2nd FLN 17:39, 1st FLW 17:56
3. Elizabeth Yetzer, 2006, (MW) Lakeville North H.S., Lakeville MN
2005 CC: 1st Griak 17:45, 2nd Lakeville 14:04, 1st Victoria Lions 13:39
2005 Track: 1st NON 10:15.73, 4th NON 4:43.12
2004 CC: 7th FLN 18:04, 8th FLMW 18:18
4. Keara Sammons, 2006, (MW) Smoky Hill H.S. Centennial CO
2005 CC: 3rd Great American ROC 17:37, 2nd Centerra 18:39, 2nd Liberty Bell 17:51
2005 Track: 3rd Golden West 10:27.91, 5th Arcadia 10:36.13y,
2004 CC: 11th FLN 18:20, 6th FLMW 18:16, 5th NTN 18:24
5. Kauren Tarver, 2008, (W) Serrano H.S., Wrightwood CA
2005 CC: 1st Woodbridge (3M) 16:37
2005 Track: 4:54.33 2nd SS Masters
2004 CC: 16th FLN 18:28, 6th FLW 18:27
6. Ashley Brasovan, 2009, (S) Wellington HS, Wellington FL
2005 CC: 1st Great American Seed. 17:33, 1st flrunners.com 17:07, 1st Holy Trinity 17:37
2005 Track: 5:04.55 (1500), 10:41.13 (3k)
2004 CC: DNC
7. Anne St. Geme, 2006, (W) Corona del Mar CA
2005 CC: 16:55 1st Orange Co. (3M), 2nd Clovis 17:24, 3rd Stanford (D1) 17:59
2005 Track: 3rd Golden West 4:51.00, 3rd Arcadia 4:55.19y, 1st State 4:50.40.
2004 CC: DNC FLW
8. Nicole Blood, 2006, (NE) Gansevoort NY
2005 CC: 3rd Dartmouth (Coll.) 19:23, 15th Great American (Univ.) 17:43
2005 Track: 9:29.44 (3k) Boston HP, 7th NON 10:32.72y, 4:26.34 1st NJ Int., 4:48.8y 1st Warwick
2004 CC: 1st FLNE 17:41, 21st FLN 18:34, 3rd NTN 18:20
9. Cassie Hintz, 2006, (NE) Old Town H.S., Stillwater ME
2005 CC: 2nd Great American ROC 17:35
2005 Track: 10:46.98 4th Loucks, 16:45.94i (5k) Terrier, 34:36.81 (10k) 5th Penn Relays
2004 CC: 15th FLNE 18:47
10. Aurora Scott, 2008, (S) Oaktree Academy, Chesapeake VA
2005 CC: 13th Great American Univ. ROC 17:36, 17:32 Norfolk St. 1st, 16:47 (3M) 1st Fork Union
2005 Track: 1st (Freshmen) NON 4:54.08y, 4:32.1 (1500) 3rd JO Int., 9:45.32 (3k) USATF Reg., 10:50.83 1st State
2004 CC: 26th FLN 18:51, 7th FLS 17:43
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