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Class AAA - regional upsets muddle team picture;
Matt Kealy, Kiera Carlstrom favored.
Class AA - Bobby Lockhart aiming to be first in
Virginia to win 4 straight state titles, and Alan Webb's course
record is also in his sights; Jamestown boys, Jefferson Forest girls
heavily favored.
Class A - Brentsville girls favored to repeat;
Page Co boys face Brentsville challenge
Top Times in regions
by Brandon Miles
publisher of MileStat,
THE web site for Virginia
[DyeStat Editor's Note: If there is more
on AA, that's understandable because Brandon runs in AA.]
Class AAA
Going in the Group AAA State Meet, there is much uncertainty on
who will be the state champion on boy the boys and girls squads
after major upsets occurring in last week's regional meets. The
top ranked girls team, James Robinson, went down in the Northern
Region Meet to West Springfield. On the boys side, top ranked Midlothian
lost the Central Region title and the #2 ranked squad, Thomas Jefferson,
experienced the same fate in the Northern Region as they took second
to West Springfield. Will these teams avenge their upsets? Or will
the underdogs continue their momentum into the state meet onto state
titles.
Ocean Lakes senior Matt Keally will be the heavy favorite in the
boys race after going the entire season undefeated. He has set course
records this year at the William & Mary Invitational, Georgetown
Prep Invitational, and Eastern Regional Meet (Newport News Park).
His biggest challengers will be Central Region champion Phil Gaeta
of Oakton and Thomas Dale junior Alex Tatu, the Central Region Champion.
Oakton senior Keira Carlstrom has distanced herself as the top
runner in the state of Virginia, but Lake Braddock's Kelly Swain,
C.D. Hylton's Jemissa Hess, and North Stafford's Kristyn Shiring
will give chase nonetheless.
AAA predictions
Whether you think they are impartial or partial, here are my predictions
for the Group AA State Meet.
BOYS TEAMS
1. West Springfield
2. Thomas Jefferson
3. Maggie Walker
4. Midlothian
5. Albemarle
6. Woodbridge
7. Herndon
8. Hermitage
9. Oakton
10. Douglas Freeman
11. Colonial Forge
12. E.C. Glass
13. Western Branch
14. Ocean Lakes
15. Indian River
16. Warwick
BOYS INDIVIDUALS
1. Matt Keally (Ocean Lakes)
2. Phil Gaeta (Oakton)
3. Alex Tatu (Thomas Dale)
4. Christo Landry (Thomas Jefferson)
5. John Piersol (Maggie Walker)
6. Rasheed Thompson (Herndon)
7. Mike Porter (Colonial Forge)
8. Jeff Day (West Springfield)
9. Mike Lyng (Woodbridge)
10. Travis Lambert (Albemarle)
11. Brandon King (Western Branch)
12. Richard Smith (South Lakes)
13. Graham Kearney (Douglas Freeman)
14. Anthony D'Amato (Midlothian)
15. Steven Walters (Green Run)
Just missed all-state...
16. Mike Stoop (Bayside)
17. Hari Mix (Albemarle)
18. Greg Sweatte (Indian River)
19. Robert Longoria (Lee)
20. Billy Bylund (Langley)
GIRLS TEAMS
1. West Springfield
2. James River
3. James Robinson
4. Lake Braddock
5. Woodbridge
6. Stonewall Jackson
7. Thomas Jefferson
8. Ocean Lakes
9. Douglas Freeman
10. Kellam
11. Brooke Point
12. Cox
13. Midlothian
14. Manchester
15. Colonial Forge
16. Western Branch
GIRLS INDIVIDUALS
1. Keira Carlstrom (Oakton)
2. Jemissa Hess (C.D. Hylton)
3. Kelly Swain (Lake Braddock)
4. Kristyn Shiring (North Stafford)
5. Kristin Hart (Herndon)
6. Dacia Barr (Centreville)
7. Jennifer Boyd (Hickory)
8. Tiffany Cross (Atlee)
9. Megan Isaacs (Menchville)
10. Joanna Rodgers (James Robinson)
11. Morgan Phelan (Hayfield)
12. Sam Ference (James Robinson)
13. Caroline Bellis (South Lakes)
14. Moriah O'Brien (Osbourn Park)
15. Mo Hagen (West Springfield)
Just missed all-state...
16. Beth Fahey (Forest Park)
17. Jamie Manner (West Potomac)
18. Kristin Milot (Stonewall Jackson)
19. Dana Thomas (Stonewall Jackson)
20. Amanda Boswell (Princess Anne)
Class AA
WARRENTON, VA -- Going into the VHSL Group AA State Meet this Saturday
on November 10th, the Jefferson Forest girls and Jamestown boys
are heavy favorites to win as they have gone undefeated all year
against Group AA competition as well as bringing national rankings
with them into the state meet.
The Jefferson Forest girls' squad has become a dynasty in Group
AA over the past couple of years. Since 1998, the team has won five
cross country and track state titles. They are coming off of their
best year ever last year where they were the first team in VHSL
history to win all three state titles in concession, winning the
cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track state meet. The backbone
of the Lady Cavaliers has been their outstanding and very deep distance
squad. Their cross country team returned all of their top runners
from last year's squad and have proven never to be as so dominant
as they have crushed the competition wherever they have went. The
squad has ran in eight major races this year and have won all of
them by large margins with victories at the Run For The Hills Invitational
(TN), Mid Atlantic Classic (MD), Blue Demon Invitational, William
& Mary Invitational, Albemarle Invitational, Running With The
Wolves Invitational, Seminole District Meet, and Region III Meet.
They've been able to relish in their amazing success this year especially
after receiving a pre-season national ranking and improving on it
as the season has progress as they find themselves ranked 7th in
the entire nation. They've been led by senior Shannon Saunders,
the defending Group AA individual champion, all season. Saunders
had a battle with bronchitis mid-season, but seems to have overcome
that and is running strong presently after winning both the Seminole
and Region III titles. At the Region III Meet, she ran one of her
better times, clocking a 18:45 5K. Backing up Saunders is a group
of all-state caliber runners with sister Kristen, Jennifer Templeton,
Carla Sitterly, and Cate Jackson. Kristin Saunders has been solid
as the Lady Cavaliers' #2 runner, beating most teams' #1 runner
and staying in relatively close distance to sister Shannon. Templeton
makes up for an incredible top three as all three runners could
be the top runners on any other squad. At last year's outdoor track
state meet, the three runners took the first three places in the
girls' 3200 meter run helping leading the squad to a state title.
The same thing could very well happen in this year's cross country
state meet. Sitterly and Jackson round out the formidable Jefferson
Forest attack as both runners will be on the bubble of earning all-state
individual honors.
It is especially amazing when thinking about Jefferson Forest's
complete dominance in Group AA when considering the large number
of very talented squads in Group AA this year that could be called
state champs any other year. It will be dogfight for those squads
as they try to make it into the top three and onto the podium. Standing
out from the rest of the squads chasing after Jefferson Forest looks
to be Turner Ashby after winning the very competitive Region II
Meet. The squad is led by Rachel Haley and have three other runners
who clocked under 20:37 on the state course last weekend with Mary
Zwanzig, Natalie Pierce, and Betsy Kain. However, they will need
their #5 runner to close the gap, if they expect to have any shot
at challenging Jefferson Forest.
After Jefferson Forest, Region II Meet may take the next four places
with state ranked squads such as Turner Ashby, Rockbridge, Western
Albemarle, and Loudoun Valley. Rockbridge has been rather quiet
this year, but has turned it on as of late as the surprised the
Western Albemarle and Loudoun Valley squads in taking second at
the Region II Meet. Western Albemarle and Loudoun Valley will be
looking to return the favor at the state meet and have hopes of
placing in the top three.
Outside of Region II, there are a few other teams that could make
some noise with Christiansburg and Blacksburg from Region III and
the Region I champions, Jamestown.
Like her squad, Shannon Saunders should be the odds-on favorite
to win the individual title especially after her 18:41 at the Region
III Meet. However, other regional champions may make a push to challenge
Saunders if she has an off-day. Loudoun Valley's Jessica Fanning
has been running real well as of late as it was very evident at
the Region II Meet at Great Meadows where she won in a time of 19:07
and beat some of the best Group AA has to offer. Other runners who
look to be in the mix are Lee's Natalie Creech, James Wood's Kristin
Novara, Stonebridge's Chelsea Henderson, Turner Ashby's Rachel Haley,
and Massaponax's Stacy Potter.
The Jamestown boys head into the state meet as the heavy favorites,
despite question marks after the Region I Meet. It was a lackluster
performance to say the least as they got subpar races from their
runners and their top runner, Bryce Ruiz, collapsed with 200 yards
left in the race. The team still managed to win the Region I title,
but not to their own approval. Before their dismal regional meet,
the Eagles were flying high as they had strong team performances
all season long. Last month, the squad cracked into the national
rankings as the #10 ranked team in the South region. Their best
team effort so far was at the William Tennent where they beat some
of the best in the state in PA to win the meet with a team average
of 15:39 on the three mile course for their top five. Ruiz leads
the way for the Eagles as he is a definite top five finisher for
the squad. Teammates Jonna Reinhardt and Tony Davila will be trying
to join Ruiz in earning all-state honors. Reinhardt and Davila have
already went under 15:30 for 3 miles and under 16:20 for a 5K. If
the squad can run up to par and anywhere close to their performance
at William Tennent, they should be state champions.
The biggest threat to the Eagles will be James Wood, the Region
II champions. James Wood has encountered much success this season
after moving down from Group AA. The squad had an impressive 1:08
time spread in between their #1 runner Nick Kelchner and #5 runner
Lenny Sweet at the regional meet. However this pack will have to
move up if they hope to upset Jamestown with Ruiz already well ahead
of James Wood's #1 and Reinhardt and Davila clipping at Kelchner's
heels.
It seems definite that the battle for second and first will come
to down to Jamestown and James Wood, but after that it's up for
grabs for teams to earn that last medaling position of third. Rockbridge
County, Marion, Sherando, Loudoun County, and Lafayette will all
be in contention for third place.
What wasn't expected was last year's state champions, Western Albemarle,
not being able to advance out of their own region. Due to injury
and illness, the Warriors finished a disheartening 7th at the Region
II Meet. So a chance for a three peat by the squad has suddenly
went down the tubes.
The boys' individual race will be loaded. John Handley senior
Bobby Lockhart will be looking to become the first person in VHSL
history to win the state cross country title all four years of high
school as he has won it in his freshmen, sophomore, and junior years.
Lockhart has been unbeatable also long and will look to remain with
that status all year as he will be vying to win a national championship
in December. At last week's Region II Meet, Lockhart clocked a 15:13
on the state course. With that said, Lockhart will have an excellent
shot at breaking Alan Webb's course record of 15:03 set last year.
Group AA will be looking to prove themselves superior to Group
AAA in the class scoring as they did last year with great runners
such as Marion's Fleet Hower, Jamestown's Bryce Ruiz, Rockbridge's
John Crews, and Louisa's Daniel Kane.
Hower has had a remarkable season after coming back from a stress
fracture which forced him to sit out the entire outdoor track season.
Everywhere he has ran it seems as though he is setting another course
record. So many records broken, that it's hard to keep track. He
capped off a year of record breaking performances before heading
into the state meet as he shattered the Sugar Hollow Park three
mile course record of 14:40 with a stellar time of 14:26. The record
in which he broke was 21 years old and it was held jointly by Frankie
Nunn of Virginia High (3 first place finishes in Virginia State
Cross Country; 1 Kinney Shoes Final) and Greg Hoofnagle of Marion
Senior (2 first place finishes in Virginia State Cross Country;
2 Kinney Shoes/Footlocker Finals). With breaking such a prestigous
record, Hower may now flirt with the idea of going after Lockhart.
Jamestown senior Bryce reason has also had a very impressive season.
Ruiz had the fastest time out of any Virginian in winning the small
school race at Great American in 15:40. He finished second to Matt
Keally, the favorite in the Group AAA race, at the William &
Mary Invitational, exceeding his previous course record with a time
of 15:00 on the 3.05 mile course. The following weekend, Ruiz found
his biggest highlight of the season where he broke the William Tennent
Invitational 3 mile course record set by Dan Coval, a Foot Locker
Northeast Regional Champion and Foot Locker All-American in 1999,
with his time of 14:47. Ruiz suffered a setback at last week's Region
I Meet however. He was trying to shatter the course record of 16:17
at the Loriella Park 5K course and was on pace to break 15:30 with
200 yards to go, but at that point his nervous system shut down
on him due to a lack of potassium and carbohydrates and he collapsed.
A scary moment for Ruiz and his team as he had to be transported
to a nearby hospital via ambulance. Many will be anxious to see
how Ruiz recovers from a very physical draining and traumatic experience.
Despite being the returning Group AA runnerup, Rockbridge junior
John Crews, has gone through this season very quietly and unnoticed
by many. Nonetheless, he showed all signs that he is ready to remain
in second behind Lockhart after taking runnerup honors to Lockhart
at the Region II Meet with a time of 15:47. One of Crew's best performances
of the year was a clocking a 15:11 5K at the Golden Eagle Invitational.
Louisa County's Daniel Kane has had a strong year, which included
becoming only the second person ever to break 16 on the Woodberry
Forest 5K course in winning this year's Woodberry Forest Invitational.
He is in elite company there as only Alan Webb has broken 16 on
that course before.
After those five, there will be a huge pack of runners vying for
those remaining ten spots to earn all-state honors. Region I champion
Guy Alton, Matt Gutridge of Caroline, and Ryan Foster of Sherando
will be looking to separate themselves from this pack.
As we all know, upsets are prone to happen and this year will be
no exception.
----
AA predictions
Whether you think they are impartial or partial, here are my predictions
for the Group AA State Meet.
BOYS TEAMS
1. Jamestown - If this squad can get all of their top five running
well at once, they may possibly have be the top team in the state
regardless of class. By far the best top three in the state with
Ruiz, Davila, and Reinhardt all likely to earn all-state honors.
Ruiz should do no worse than 4th in the race. Davila and Reinhardt
should be in the top 15. Miles and Cooke round out a strong top
five as the two runners should be somewhere around the top 25. Entire
top 5 should be under 17 on the state course. And for insurance,
their #7 and #8 should be well under 18. The team will be fired
up to run after losing last year's state meet by two points.
2. James Wood - While they have a tighter pack than Jamestown,
the pack is too far back. Top runner, Nick Kelchner will have his
work cut out for him just trying to beat Jamestown's #2 and #3.
Jamestown's #4 and #5 should be that far away from James Wood's
#2. #5 runner ran a 17:48 on state course last week. James Wood
can't have that happening at states if they have any shot knocking
off James Wood. Any other year, might be the top team in AA. Not
this year.
3. Marion - They looked horrible earlier in the season at the Run
For The Hills Invitational where Jamestown almost beat them by 100
points in just a small invitational, but it looks as though coach
Gene Walker has his troops ready now after easily winning the Region
IV Meet. They quite possibly have the best front runner out of all
the teams in contention with Fleet Hower. He will make up for a
considerable amount of point difference on the other squads who
may have stronger depth, but not as good of a front runner. Don't
forget these are mountain boys, Great Meadows rolling hills are
like pancakes to them. They caught everyone off guard last year
finishing 3rd, yet still teams outside of Southwest Virginia are
taking them lightly. I wouldn't, keep an eye out for this squad.
4. Rockbridge - Didn't think John Crews had a team behind him did
you? Well he does and it's a pretty good one. They crushed previously
ranked Fort Defiance in consecutive weeks and then had a strong
second place finish at the Region II Meet. They put their entire
top 5 under 17:54 on the state course last week. They will need
a big race from #2 runner Will Williams to help solidify a third
place finish.
5. Lafayette - They gave Jamestown a scare at the Region I Meet
coming within 10 points of upsetting the top team, although Jamestown
couldn't have won any uglier. They have a good mixture of experience
and youth. Their top runner, senior Jimmy Kohlman ran an impressive
regional meet taking third behind Guy Alton and Matt Gutridge. Other
seniors, Preston Wall (an all-state runner last year) and Scott
Tiernan (outdoor 800m runner-up) have the talent along with a strong
sophomore class providing depth. An under-achieving group that could
move up a few places if they run up to their capabilities
6. Jefferson Forest - A good squad overshadowed by their girls'
squads, could surprise a few as they have a strong pack of five
under 18 for a 5K.
7. Sherando - Although they have strong top two with Ryan Foster
and Erik Fullmer, their #4 and #5 are too far back to put them in
any serious contention.
8. Loudoun County - Like Sherando, their #4 and #5 leave them out
of contention. Senior David Bolton will try and lead his team by
earning all-state honors once again.
9. Tabb - Had a pretty good showing at the Region I Meet as they
had almost the entire top 5 around 18 on the hard Loriella Park
5K course.
10. York - Have shown that they can still compete despite the graduation
of Allen Carr. Keith Percic, Trent Williams, and Tim Falvey make
up for a formidable top 3.
11. Christiansburg - Troy Meyer and Justin Hatch are the top 1-2
combo out of Southwest Virginia, but that's about far as it goes
with the Christiansburg squad.
12. Blacksburg - No true front runner, #5 too far back.
13. Abingdon - Tommy Antennuci only real bright spot on this squad.
14. Amherst County - Top two runners Jacob Wright and Casey Grey
are decent, nothing after that.
15. Magna Vista - Wouldn't be here if they were any other region.
16. Tazewell - Ditto above.
BOYS INDIVIDUALS
1. Bobby Lockhart (John Handley) - Lockhart will become the first
person in VHSL history to win the state title all 4 years. Will
get Webb's record of 15:03 if weather is friendly.
2. Fleet Hower (Marion) - Despite losing by a 12 second margin
to Bryce Ruiz earlier in the season, Hower has consistently improved
over the year and broken course records where ever he goes. Most
recently at the Sugar Hollow Park 3 mile course in Bristol where
he broke a 21 year old course that was held by two Kinney/Foot Locker
Finalist in running a 14:26. He may go after Lockhart and make Lockhart
work for his 4th in a row.
3. Bryce Ruiz (Jamestown) - Looks to be recovered physically from
his collapse last week, but will it affect him mentally in the race.
Look for him to be more conservative and hold back this week and
run rather for his team, rather for himself. Save the individual
glory for Foot Locker South.
4. John Crews (Rockbridge) - Crews' strength is hills, but hills
ar also the strength of the fore mentioned runners. He will have
to rely on his kick then to outduel Hower and Ruiz.
5. Daniel Kane (Louisa) - While his races have not been bad this
year, they have not been spectacular. Would have expected him to
be closer with Ruiz at William & Mary and much closer to Crews
last week at the Region II Meet. Maybe he is just holding back for
the big one.
6. Guy Alton (New Kent) - Ran a strong race to win the Region I
Meet. A 16:35 at Loriella Park would indicate Alton will be well
under to 16:30 on the Great Meadows course.
7. Ryan Foster (Sherando) - Has a great advantage on running this
course very often during the year. He will know where to make his
moves on the course to the other runners who only run here once
a year.
8. Matt Gutridge (Caroline) - Will be looking for revenge against
Alton after taking second at the Region I Meet.
9. Nick Kelchner (James Wood) - Will be trying to muster his squad
together to pull off the upset on Jamestown.
10. Jonna Reinhardt (Jamestown) - Despite losing his shoe in the
first 400 meters of the Region I Meet and putting himself in dead
last at that point, Reinhardt made up losts of ground to take 5th
in the race. Look for only Ruiz, Alton, and Gutridge to finish ahead
of him out of that region this go around.
11. Troy Meyer (Christiansburg) - Seems to be running strong after
being setback earlier in the year due to shin splints. He always
runs well in November. This year will be no different.
12. Tony Davila (Jamestown) - Will be looking to shake off a poor
regional race with smarter pacing to help solidify Jamestown's title
hopes with 3 runners all-state.
13. Jimmy Kohlman (Lafayette) - Pulled out a strong Region I race
taking third, will look to continue that momentum into states.
14. Jordan Bowman (Fort Defiance - Will be running without his
squad for the first time this year, but shouldn't effect him as
he has run consistent all year.
15. Erik Fullmer (Sherando) - Part two of the talented junior duo
from Sherando with Foster.
Just missed all-state...
16. Cameron Cox (New Kent) - Ran an incredible regional race, shown
he runs much better at hills and thus will be up there at the state
race.
17. David Bolton (Loudoun County) - Shows how strong this year's
field is as an all-state runner of last year might not make it back
to the podium.
18. Peter Burch (Western Albemarle) - The only survivor from the
Western Albemarle team debacle at the Region II Meet. While the
team won't be able to get on the podium this year, Burch will do
his best to represent the team and reach it as an individual.
19. CW Moran (Potomac Falls) - Strong race at Region II Meet. Wasn't
too far behind Fullmer, thus isn't too far out of all-state contention.
20. Justin Hatch (Christiansburg) - The young talented sophomore
will get his shot at all-state.
GIRLS TEAMS
1. Jefferson Forest
2. Turner Ashby
3. Western Albemarle
4. Rockbridge County
5. Christiansburg
6. Loudoun Valley
7. Jamestown
8. Blacksburg
9. Massaponax
10. Chancellor
11. Grafton
12. Marion
13. Amherst County
14. Abingdon
15. Carroll County
16. Dan River
GIRLS INDIVIDUALS
1. Shannon Saunders (Jefferson Forest)
2. Jessica Fanning (Loudoun Valley)
3. Kristin Saunders (Jefferson Forest)
4. Kristen Novara (James Wood)
5. Chelsea Henderson (Stonebridge)
6. Rachel Haley (Turner Ashby)
7. Natalie Creech (Lee)
8. Katie Endres (Potomac Falls
9. Stacy Potter (Massapoanx)
10. Jennifer Templeton (Jefferson Forest)
11. Sara Bowman (Fauquier)
12. Delaney Moje (Western Albemarle)
13. Tasmin Fanning (Loudoun Valley)
14. Eileen Wicker (New Kent)
15. Lauren Cook (Christiansburg)
Just missed all-state...
16. Ann Lee Cole (Nottoway)
17. Meredith Cleveland (Potomac Falls)
18. Carly Sitterly (Jefferson Forest)
19. Beth Mahalak (Chancellor)
20. Erin Mearns (Jamestown)
Class A
WARRENTON, VA -- Last year's Group A state team champions, Page
County boys and Brentsville girls have returned to this year's state
meet as the top team once again. The Brentsville girls look to be
challenged by no one, while the Brentsville boys pose a serious
threat to Page County as they have a #5 runner that is a little
bit ahead of Page County's #5, which could be a deciding factor
in the team score.
The boys individual race looks to come down between Page County
sophomore Todd Somers and Patrick Henry senior Michael Buchanan.
Somers times have dropped all year as he hit a new PR last week,
running a 16:28 at the Region B Meet. Buchanan, the defending champion,
suffered an early setback in the season with a quadricep injury,
but has recovered nicely and will look to make sure the title stays
with him.
In the girls race, George Mason junior Annie Maynard has really
come on as of late and emerged as the top runner in her classification.
Maynard has beat the best Group A has to offer in Region B, the
most competitive region in Group A. At the Region II Meet, she beat
defending champion, Mindy Peele of Brentsville by a 26 second margin.
DyeStat Virginia
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