To begin, it is obvious that most of the traditional powers will maintain their status at or near the top, and a few new and promising programs will continue to evolve on the national scene. Top boys teams and traditional powers, which will make an impact in 2000 include Mountain View (UT), Kingwood (TX), The Woodlands, (TX), Mead (WA), and York (IL). Established programs that will challenge this front pack include Rockford (MI), Poly (CA), Gloucester (MA), Flathead (MT), and Novi (MI). Upstart teams to watch include Atlantic (FL), Western Albemarle (VA), Robinson (VA), North Mecklenburg (NC), Clovis (CA), Cherokee (NJ), Klamath Union (OR), St. Anthony's (NY), Eureka (CA), and St. Xavier (OH).

The top ranked teams included Christian Brothers Academy (NJ), Mountain View (UT), The Woodlands (TX), and York (IL). York's dominance in its state meet earned the top ranking by most experts. They were led by Donald Sage, the fastest US miler in over 30 years, and placed another four runners in the top 10, resulting in an incredibly low score of 24 points.

Unfortunately, there was a lack of match-ups among York, Mountain View, and Christian Brothers

In 2000, we are not going to see a team like York, and it may be years before another dominant power emerges on that level. We will see teams that clearly lack a powerful front one-two punch, but are filled with depth, and others that have excellent one-two punches, but lack the depth of York. Enough said, just who are the contenders or the pretenders?

First, we will look at top teams with excellent upfront runners, mainly Rockford, MI; Atlantic, FL; North Mecklenburg, NC; Flathead, MT; and Mountain View, UT.

The best front-runner leading a fairly deep squad is no mystery, Dathan Ritzenhein (left) and his Rockford, Michigan team. However, Rockford loses two of its top five in Andy Martin and Seth Folkertsma, both top 20 finishers in their state meet and sub 4:20 milers. Yet, with Ritz up front and two other sub 4:20 milers, Brian Smith and Kyle Fujimoko, Rockford could go undefeated in 2000. Yet, the school will need a new star or two to make their mark as the nation's best. However, Novi, MI could be a stumbling block for Rockford, as it has been the past two years. They return their top four runners from last year's Michigan state championship team, and will be lead by Chris Toloff, a 4:10.7 miler. He will be backed up by 9:14 two miler Tim Moore, as well as Mark Avenius and Eric Wale.

The best one-two punch is John and Sean Jefferson from Atlantic Community of Delray Beach, Florida. Not many teams will put two runners ahead of this twin duo. In 1999, both were Foot Locker finalists, and John ran an outdoor mile in 4:10 and Sean achieved a 9:13 two-mile best. They are followed by solid third man Kenny Schappert, who ran a 4:23 mile and Josh Randall, an outstanding freshman last school year, who ran a first year mile in 4:28. Fifth man, Alfredo Felix, a 9:58 two miler should be within striking distance of most other fifth men. However, this program, faced with the brutal humidity of South Florida, follows a track season orientation and may save their best running until the early spring track season.

Another leading front-runner is Stephen Haas of North Mecklenburg, NC, a 9:11 two miler, 4:14.5 miler and 10^th place finisher at FootLocker Nationals. He is supported by two quality runners, Kalib Wilkenson and Jeff Gossling, both of whom have run under 9:30 and 4:30.

Look for Atlantic and North Mecklenburg to win their state championships, but in a large national class meet, their 4^th and 5th men may not be able to close the gap.

Flathead, (MT) has been one of the best programs in the nation in recent years and has produced a series of sub 9:20 two milers. This season, they will be led by David Vidal (15:31 5K, 1st MT state, 36th FL West, 4:14 M) and have excellent upfront depth with Seth Watkins (59th FL West, 4th MT state, 9:28 2M) and Kurt Michels (8th MT state), both sub 16:00. In 2000, the school will move clearly into the national spotlight, as the team returns 5 of its top 7 from the 1999 Montana State Championship team and will run Great American. The school has won 4 state titles in the 90's and placed no lower than 3rd place in their state meet in each of the last 10 years. Often overlooked due to its remote location and lack of big time team competitions, Flathead has excelled as well as any other team in recent years. Coach Paul Jorgensen has received sufficient notice to be ranked #3 nationally in 1998, and #9 in 1999.

Mountain View (UT) is the nation's top program over the past seven years having been ranked in the top five nationally for 7 straight years, including #1 in 1998. The 1999 Utah 5A State Champions return their top two runners from last year's nationally ranked #2 squad in Dustin Bybee (4:14.41, 9:19.42) and Chandler Goodwin (4:18, 9:21), and a host of supporting runners. Bybee is the 3rd fastest returning runner from the powerful west region and Goodwin was state XC runner-up to Golden Harper with a 15:44. The team is rounded out by three more runners who have run under 4:29. This team may be as good as any and will make a solid claim for the nation's top ranking in 2000.

The other top contenders have somewhat different profiles because each lost a key and leading front-man to graduation, but have deep teams that will perform at a national level. This group includes the Woodlands (TX), Klamath Union (OR), Gloucestor (MA), and York (IL).

Klamath Union is best known for producing Ian Dobson who has moved to Stanford. In 1999, the team upset longtime Oregon powerhouse Bend, and ranked # 8 nationally by Harrier Cross Country Report. The team will be lead by two of the nation's most promising young runners, Jacob Gomez who, finished 8th in the Oregon Championships, as a sophomore, and Lauren Jesperson, who finished 10th as a freshman. Marnee Mason-Johnson, a former Footlocker finalist, coaches the team.

Gloucester (MA) is one of the most dominant programs in the Northeast. Last year, they ran away with the Massachusetts State Championships winning by 23 points with a score of 47. They lost All-American Tristan Colangelo to Princeton University and Shawn Milne, however they will return the rest of their top 7. The 2000 team will include senior, Josh Palazolla (4:16.84, 9:18.34) and Sean Murphy. Palazola is the fifth fastest returnee in the Northeast, and Murphy was a member of the 1999 Harrier All-Sophomore Team. Rounding out the top five will be super sophomore, Joey Brancolcone, senior, Eric Smith, and junior, Thomas Ross.

York loses its top three runners and four of their top seven from 1999, but this program is solid and deep. The team will be led by Adam Roche and Pete Stasiulis. While they will have three more runners with sub 16:00 5K ability, with sub 4:29 miles, they will not come close to replacing their top three runners, who averaged close to 9:00 flat in the two mile, and under 4:10 in the mile. But in a somewhat down year for all top teams, York will return to the hunt, especially if another top team stumbles along the way.

Any XC report can never leave out Kingwood High School, which has just recently taken a back seat to the local rival, The Woodlands. This was the nation's second best team in the 1990's. Kingwood has been ranked in the top 25 almost every year over the past decade, including four rankings in the top five, and two #1 national rankings. Ranked #17 nationally in 1999, the team won seven state titles between 1988 and 1998 before falling to 3rd place in the 1999 state meet, losing two of their top five runners to injuries. The team will be lead by Senior Tyler McCollum (15:41 5K, 4:19 mile).

The best team in the 1990's was Mead, from Spokane, WA. Mead won nine consecutive state titles in the 90's, produced five Footlocker Finalists and five All-Americans, and was ranked #1 twice and in the top five, four other times. The 2000 team will see the emergence of another powerhouse team as the '99 squad had four sophomores that regularly ran in the top seven. The 2000 team will be lead by Senior Chris Fayant (15:48 5K), who, last fall, took 4th in the Washington State meet.

Other highly regarded teams from 1999--including Bend (OR), Staples-Motley (MN), Don Lugo (CA), and Christian Brothers Academy (NJ)--were hit hard by graduations and will not return to the hunt for a top five national ranking.

That should leave Mountain View, The Woodlands, Rockford, Novi, Klamath Falls, Gloucestor, York, and Flathead as true contenders and Atlantic, as an outside dark horse. One notable exception could be Poly, from Long Beach, CA, which had nationally ranked teams in 1997 and 1998. At first blush, this team is still young with two juniors, Oscar Mendez (15:08 3M, 16th. CA state) and Bryan Durham(15:29 3M) and sophomore, Kevin Brulois (15:48 3M) making up the top three, all of which should run under 16:00 in a 5K. But, word from the west is that Ozzie Pena, a sub 9:10 two miler as a Soph in 1998, has joined Coach George Wright at Poly. After a lackluster track season last spring, Pena, along with one or more teammates, reportedly have moved to Poly,. If Pena returns to his incredible potential, Poly may catch the rest of the nation sleeping.

Finally, The Woodlands and Coach Dan Green ranked nationally #4 in 1999 by Harrier Cross Country Report have not lost a race since the 1998 Texas State Championships. While the Woodland's lost top runner, Chris Emme, to Stanford, they return the deepest team in the nation, including Seniors, Luis Bordes (4^th Texas state, 9:20 2M, 4:26 M), Chris Esselborn (15th TX state, 9:18 2M), Brian Periman (26th TX state, 9:34 2M, 4:23 M) and Robert Dunphy (26th TX state, 9:16 2M, and 4:18 M). This team is deep and will benefit from the addition of a very talented group of incoming freshman who show real star potential. Woodlands has their eyes on a #1 national ranking in 2000, and will face Mountain View, Mead, Flathead, Poly, Atlantic, Klamath Union, Mead and North Mecklenburg at Charlotte's Great American in September. This team is going to be as good as any and may be the best in the nation, especially if they receive a surprise from last year's junior high ranks and each of their front-runners take a step forward.

SUMMARY

In terms of overall depth, the nation's top two regions will be the Midwest and West. Rockford will have the top program consisting of both boys' and girls' teams. The top boys will include Stephen Haas, Ryan Hall, Erik Heinonen, Dathan Ritzenhein, Bobby Lockhart, Seth Pilkington, Nick Schneider, Chris Toloff, and Alan Webb.  The top boys' teams will include Flathead, Klamath Union, Mountain View, Novi, the Woodlands, Rockford and York.