SAN DIEGO 12/12/02 -- So, we are finally near the last race of the cross country season. For the 64 finalists and many others, December 14 has been circled on their calendars since the start of summer training runs or even longer. Except for state meets for those with a good team, this day is the goal of the entire season.

Who will win? We won't say, but we will give the analysis. If it were a horse race, this is the Racing Form. We have classified runners as Top Seed, Dangerous, and Could Surprise. This is not to disparage those who aren't mentioned. They are all champions or they wouldn't be here.

To make your own analysis, see the Gallery of Finalists, which has past performances on all 64 finalists.

Boys - Girls - Extra Tidbits |

Boys

Top Seed
Morning line favorite

Stevens Point WI sr Chris Solinsky - in a class by himself on paper - close 3rd last year, highest ranking returnee, and obviously better this year - Undefeated with better times on same courses - regional win in 14:48 in near zero degree wind chill over frozen mud was only 13 seconds slower than Dathan Ritzenhein's senior year in 2000 - gave Nef Araia his first loss of the season.

Dangerous
A good argument could be made for any of these to win.

Lawrence North Indianapolis IN sr Nef Araia - ran with Solinsky for more than 2 miles in the Midwest regional. Didn't cover his move at the end, but could have been content to qualify and save himself for San Diego. Undefeated before the regional.

St. Xavier Louisville KY sr Bobby Curtis - looks like a man on a mission to make up for last year's disappointing 21st place finish. Like last year, he comes in with great times in Kentucky, plus an intersectional win over Missouri's Adam Perkins on a day when he fell down and still won. Lots of big race wins, mostly at the mile.

Klamath Falls OR sr Lauren Jespersen - 1-2 with Rupp in the greatest Oregon cross country final anyone remembers. Watch for Jespersen if it is close in the stretch. Let Rupp get a big lead in Oregon state meet, but almost caught him. Beat Rupp at BorderClash and finished side by side with him in West region, where both appeared to be saving themselves for San Diego. Second highest returning finalist (12th last year).

Redding CA sr Tim Nelson -- Broke old course record finishing second to Jespersen in only two losses before West regional. Content to qualify in regional, where he overcame some mid-race indifference by kicking from 9th to 4th in the last 800 meters. Has trained for this race since finishing 20th last year.

Central Catholic Portland OR jr Galen Rupp - undefeated until BorderClash, lightly raced, and pointing all season for this race. Coached by former world champion Alberto Salazar.

Could Surprise
top contenders for All-American medal (top 15)

Tallahassee FL jr Ryan Deak - smallest runner in the field, but runs bigger than his stature - holds national freshman record for the indoor 3200 - fastest of day at Florida state meet.

Mt. Tabor NC sr Matt Debole - second straight trip to finals - second in region to Curtis - big race experience - Penn Relays mile champion last April (4:09.73).

JFK East Fishkill NY jr Hakon Devries - New York state public school champion - only 1 second behind Fennell in Northeast region.

Pearl River NY sr Brendan Fennell NY - Northeast region champion, finalist 2 years ago as a soph. Gave up basketball to concentrate on running this year. Prevailed in a frantic stretch run with lead changes in Northeast region. Put his name high on Van Cortlandt Park all time list with win in the mud at the Manhattan Invitational.

Vanguard Ocala FL sr Steve Hassen - powerfully built runner who has been improving late in the season with Foot Locker in mind - like Deak, appeared to be running to qualify at Charlotte.

Conard CT jr Ahmed Haji - dominated Connecticut and New England championships - unbeaten before regional.

Gillette WY sr Andrew Jones -- What is a 2:05, 4:33, 10:06 distance runner doing in the Foot Locker national finals? After his startling third in last week's West regional, the converted soccer player said he isn't very good until the race gets longer. Other observors say the talent was always there but not necessarily the dedication. Apparently he had a change of heart this fall. He was undefeated, winning the Wyoming championship and the Wyoming-Montana Border War before coming down from the real mountains to Mt. SAC. He improved 53 places there from his 56th place finish last year.

Edwardsville IL sr Stephen Pifer - Illinois champion - third in 2002 Golden West mile (4:11.29).

Etiwanda CA sr Mike Poe - closed season with 5 straight wins, including slow West regional when everyone seemed to be watching each other - leg strength served him well at Mt. SAC and could do the same on Balboa's hills - comes one of the shortest distances (117 miles) to get to Balboa Park.

Weber Ogden UT Steve Shepherd - second in West region - second to Curtis at Arcadia mile last April (4:10.18).

Hudson OH sr Wesley Smith - Ohio Division 1 champion, 9:03 2-miler at AOC Raleigh last June, has two sub-15 minute 5K's this season. Finished behind Araia by 15 seconds three times.

Girls

This is a race with fascinating possibilities.

Top Seed
Morning line favorites

• Flathead Kalispell MT sophomore Zoe Nelson
• Bromfield Harvard MA senior Ari Lambie
• Aurora CO senior Megan Kaltenbach
• Saratoga Springs NY freshman Nicole Blood

Two of these -- Nelson and Lambie -- are undefeated and untested. Are they too good for everyone else or will the competition of national finals bring them back to the pack? If the former, which is better? Although younger, Nelson has the experience of running in the finals last year. Zoe broke course records on every course she ran until the regional at Mt. SAC last Saturday, and she is running 30 seconds or more faster than her own times last year. Lambie has run against better competition in New England, and if it is close at the end, her 2:08 800 meter speed argues in her favor. But Nelson may have closing punch too if she needs it. No one in Montana can forget Zoe in last year's state meet. The freshman battled 3-time state champion Heidi Lane stride for stride and dropped her with a last surge at the finish. Nelson has been bothered by a side ache in her last two races.

Kaltenbach was unbeatable on the track from February to June, with the fastest mile in the country and the second fastest 2 mile as she won from Arcadia to Penn Relays to Golden West to AOC Raleigh, along with a record-setting 4-gold performance in the Colorado state outdoor championships. But she has had her disappointments in cross country, despite winning four straight Colorado titles. At Great American the last 2 years and at Foot Locker finals last year, she went in as one of the favorites and finished far behind. She has the strength and speed to run any kind of race. This could be her time.

Blood has been in the national limelight for 3 years with the US#1 Saratoga team, but this is her first Foot Locker (New York allows middle schoolers to run varsity, but Foot Locker requires seeded runners to be in high school). She has posted brilliant times this year and won the Great American against a big cast of nationally ranked runners. Throw out her two losses -- at the New York state public school championship when she took a wrong turn and stopped after going a mile out of her way, and at the Northeast regional when she was nursing a cold and did not try to cover Lambie's mid-race move. Blood is almost impossible to beat in a stretch fight, as Molly Huddle found out in the Loucks mile last May and Harper found out at Great American.

Dangerous
A good argument could be made for any of these to win.

Laguna Creek CA jr Rachel Bryan - If Rachel wakes up feeling bad Saturday, watch out. - three biggest races have come when she was ailing from flu or asthma: 3rd in West region last Saturday, 1st and fastest of day at Mt. SAC Invitational in October, and 2nd in California outdoor state meet 3200 last June (10:36.32).

Granite Bay jr Caitlin Chock - fastest of the day in the talent-rich California state meet - undefeated until the West regional.

Orem UT sr Amber Harper - ran side by side with Blood at Great American and finished only inches behind. Highest ranking returning finalist (9th last year). Lots of big race experience.

Mountain View UT jr Heidi Magill -- last year's US#1 800 meter runner (2:06.34 at Arcadia) is showing great range. She is a 54-second one lapper, a 4:57 miler in her only attempt, and now she qualifies for Foot Locker finals with an 800 meter kick that brought her to second in the West region. Heidi's focus is still on the 800, where she is shooting for 2:02 this year and the national record (2:00.07) next year.

Could Surprise
top contenders for All-American medal (top 15)

Rockford MI jr Nikki Bohnsack - making it back to the finals (she was 25th last year) was an upset after a swimming injury in August - Nikki lives on a lake and broke her hip when she jumped in the water and hit a rock - after 8 week layoff, she returned in mid season and successfully defended her Michigan Division 1 crown - may not be at full speed yet.

Candia NH soph Chantelle Dron - home schooled runner burned up the open circuit with the Lynx Elite team and was a strong fourth in Northeast region - won Nike Indoor Classic freshman mile last March (5:00.22) - ran strong 1500 (4:30.92) finishing 6th as a high school freshman in the USA Junior Nationals at Stanford last June.

Lamar Arlington TX jr Rachael Forish - surprise winner of the South region after being 10th in her state meet - her Texas regional win over Mackenzie Edwards and Monique Ortega was a better indicator than her state meet.

Gunn Palo Alto sr Ruth Graham - shook off 40th place finish in California state meet to run a strong 5th in West regional - has Hawaii rooting for her because she won the Iolani Invitational, which has had its last three champions go on to win Foot Locker nationals: Victoria Chang, Sara Bei, and Amber Trotter.

Carmel IN jr Katie Harrington - Don't sneak up on her in the stretch. Katie was ready to settle for second in the Indiana state meet when someone tried to pass her. She responded with a big kick that carried her all the way past the leader for the win. With that confidence booster under her belt, she ran a strong 4th in the Midwest region.

Spring Valley Columbia SC freshman Kate Niehaus - her 17:53 5K broke the South Carolina state meet record as a freshman.

Minster OH jr Sunni Olding - Ohio Division 3 champion was undefeated in small school competition.

Killingly CT Meghan Owen - multiple Connecticut champion returns to finals (30th as a soph in 2000) - always close in big meets (top 4 at Golden West, NSIC, AOC Raleigh, and Millrose Games).

Lakewood OH sr Michelle Sikes - second trip to finals (22nd last year) - 3rd in Midwest region - 3rd in very strong Ohio Division 1 state meet.

Ishpeming MI jr Amber Smith - second trip to finals - close second to Megan Kaltenbach in Midwest region.

Red Bank NJ sr Katy Trotter - running without her twin sister Amanda (11th in Northeast region) for the first time in a long while - strong 3rd in Northeast region behind Lambie and Blood.

Extra Tidbits

Redemption Daily Double -- Bobby Curtis and Nicole Blood. Both lost a big race with a wrong turn, Curtis at Great American and Blood at the New York state public schools championship.

Off year for South region girls? - Rachael Forish's winning time would have placed 11th last year.