The Internet Home of Track & Field


June 14-16, 2007 Greensboro NC

DyeStat on-site coverage

steveu's predictions - Girls

by Steve Underwood, DyeStat news editor

Girls Distances

The Buzz:  Fairly high.  The most deserved buzz by far here should be around junior Chanelle Price, who is without peer in the 2-lapper and continuing to make her way toward fellow Pennsylvanian Kim Gallagher’s HSR.  She may not get it this year, but could cut a few more ticks off.  The mile, on the other hand, could have been a 4-way showdown with sub-4:40 1600 runners Danielle Tauro (06 champ), Christine Babcock, Alex Kosinski, and Jordan Hasay.  But Tauro’s just doing relays, Babcock and Hasay are simply not competing here (Babcock reported not at all again in the postseason), and Kosinski is out with injury.  Still, Ohio rivals Emily Infeld and Stephanie Morgan, and freshman star Cory McGee MS lead several sub-4:50 types.

The deuce will still be without Hasay, but we’ve got the Ashley Higginson-Ashley Brasovan matchup, with is equally deserving of titles like “The Battle of the Ashleys” or “The Battle of the Indoor Champs” (the former, NSIC; the latter, NIN).  Higginson also has at least an outside shot at Marie Lawrence’s USR 6:35 from last year in the steeple.  The 5k doesn’t quite have the quality that they do on the boys side.

What 2 Watch 4:  Pace is key for Price in the 800.  If she can hit 61.0-61.5, her chances are best to break 2:03.  It will be tough on her own, but she’s used to that and she’ll be pretty fresh.  Or … maybe she won’t be on her own.  As a 2:06 runner, Dominique Jackson could hang for quite a while, if she’s up to a pretty brutal pace.  Same with Sarah Cocco CO, who is reportedly going to go for an extremely fast time.

Even without that big four, the mile should be fascinating.  McGee may be the most talented, but needs to run a smart pace.  Infeld and Morgan have both recently hacked off 5-6 seconds to move into ultra-elite territory.  Samantha McMillan UT came down from altitude to beat Morgan at Penn and is a smart racer.  Emily Reese GA has been off the radar since her early May state meet, but was regaining strength as she ran a 4:47/10:16 double.  If she’s kept improving, look out.  In any case, 4:40-42 is not a stretch for a winning time.

Higginson has much better miling speed than Brasovan, but the latter was very impressive the way she closed out NIN the last 1200.  Brasovan can’t let it come to a short kick.

Record Possibilities:  Price should get the 2:04.55 meet record, but a shot at the USR is realistically a year away.  The other distance meet and national records are going to be pretty tough. 

The Predictions: 

2-Mile:  1. Ashley Higginson NJ, 2. Ashley Brasovan FL, 3. Marissa Treece MI.  Winning time:  10:12.0

Mile:  1. Emily Infeld OH, 2. Stephanie Morgan OH, 3. Cory McGee MS.  Winning time:  4:40.5

800:  1. Chanelle Price PA, 2. Dominque Jackson CA, 3. Sarah Cocco CO.  Winning time;  2:03.5

5k:  1. Alex Gits MN, 2. Lara Crofford PA, 3. Nicole Traynor NJ.  Winning time:  17:25.0

2k Steeple:  1. Ashley Higginson NJ, 2. Shelby Greany NY, 3. Catherine White VA.  Winning time:  6:44.0

1 Mile Walk:  1. Jenna Monahan NY, 2. Katie Williams NY, 3. Chelsea Conway NY.  Winning time:  6:59.0

Girls Distance Relays

The Buzz:  Huge.  Records could be smashed like infamous 1979 Disco Demolition Night at Comiskey Park during these events, thanks to the girls of Cal Coast TC (Corona Del Mar CA), Hammer TC (Southern Regional NJ), and Blazin Raiders (Eleanor Roosevelt MD).  Corona has depth in the mile that rivals any team in US history and could shatter the USR in the 4x1 Mile.  In the DMR, defending NON champ Corona will do battle with NIN champ Roosevelt and Penn champ Southern Regional.  Roosevelt is said to be at their best and shooting for victories and/or records in everything from 4x400 to DMR, while Southern Regional’s big two of 2006 NON mile champ Danielle Tauro and super soph Jillian Smith seem to be regaining top form.  Roosevelt just missed the USR in its thrilling victory at Penn and will run a similar lineup with a chance at that mark.

What 2 Watch 4:  In the DMR, while the big three teams are close on all of their legs, it would greatly behoove Southern Regional to get a significant lead on Smith’s 1200 leg and keep anchor Tauro close enough to do her thing at the end.  Corona and ER need to stay close enough so their middle legs can gain a lead, which is especially true for ER, though anchor Marika Walker is very good.  Corona anchor Shelby Buckley’s 1600 best for the year is just 4 ticks behind Tauro, so they will be in good shape even with a modest lead.

In the 4x1, Corona is going to have to push on their own, in all likelihood, but they have some room to work.  Their 4 sub-5 runners, added together, come out to around 19:42, which would be 14 seconds ahead of the US record.  Roosevelt, in the 4x800, will also likely have to push hard by themselves at the end.

Record Possibilities:  Barring disaster, Corona will have the new USR in the 4xMile, hands down.  The other two relays have excellent US record opportunities.

The Predictions: 

4x 1Mile:  1. Corona Del Mar CA, 2. Colts Neck NJ, 3. Kinetic RC (Saratoga NY).  Winning time:  19:45.0

Distance Medley:  1. Southern Regional NJ, 2. Corona Del Mar CA, 3. Eleanor Roosevelt TD.  Winning time:  11:31.0

4x800:  1. Eleanor Roosevelt MD, 2. Pope John XXIII NJ, 3. Warwick Valley NY.  Winning time:  8:52.5

Girls Sprints/Hurdles

The Buzz:  The short sprints and hurdles are not quite what they could have been, if we’d had a healthy Bianca Knight, Jeneba Tarmoh, Vashti Thomas, Teona Rodgers, and a few other stars.  The splendid Class of 07 from last year has had its ups and downs.  Still, a showdown between US#1 Tiffany Townsend TX and defending champ Gabby Mayo in the 100 entices.  Jackie Coward TN vs. April Williams TX is a pretty good matchup in the 100H and the 400H is deep and fast.  As far as an individual performance, the best could be Jessica Beard OH in the 400.

What 2 Watch 4:  It was about this time last year when Gabby got her groove and ran the races at NON and USATF that won her the DyeStat MVP honors.  So the fact that she hasn’t really opened eyes this year may not mean any more than the fact that she was something of an underdog here last year.  Townsend bridged the gap between her awesome state meet runs with a Great Southwest double, but didn’t resolve the question as to whether she’s still in 11.21/22.84 shape.  If she isn’t, Mayo and others like NIN 60 champ Victoria Jordan TX and Brittany Long GA will be more closely in the mix.  Long should also be Townsend’s best competition in a weaker 200 field.

In the 400, Beard brings to mind the amazing form of indoor US-record holder Francena McCorory.  Can she summon the same type of magic for an outdoor record shot?  Fellow Ohioan Meshawn Graham is the only one within a second of Beard.

In the 100H, April Williams seems to be regaining the form she had last summer, which could mean a barnburner with Coward.  Both are great technicians.  Coward has better speed, though neither is a great spinter, and Williams has more power.  Although it’s not as high-powered as the boys version, the 400H field is very good and deep, with US#1 Ryann Krais PA the favorite.  A big question is whether or not Dalilah Muhammad NY and defending champ Leslie Njoku NJ can return to form.

Record Possibilities:  The meet records in the 100/200 (11.39/23.03) aren’t out of reach at all, but the US records (11.11/22.11) are probably so, based on recent form.  As great as Beard is, she’s probably not at Richards’ 50.69 level yet, but should break her own meet mark of 52.04.  The US records for the 100H and 400H (12.95/55.20) are probably out of reach this weekend (Coward should challenge the 100H next year), but the 100H meet mark of 13.38 should go.

The Predictions: 

100:  1. Tiffany Townsend TX, 2. Gabby Mayo NC, 3. Brittany Long GA.  Winning time:  11.33

200:  1. Tiffany Townsend TX, 2. Brittany Long GA, 3. Aaereon Payne OH.  Winning time:  23.15

400:  1. Jessica Beard OH, 2. Meshawn Graham OH, 3. Nadonnia Rodriques NY.  Winning time:  51.33.

110H:  1. Jackie Coward TN, 2. April Williams TX, 3. Bianca Blair TN.  Winning time:  13.24.

400H:  1. Ryann Krais PA, 2. Jackie Coward TN, 3. Takecia Jameson MD.  Winning time:  57.95

Girls Sprint Relays

The Buzz:  Not a big year for buzz in the 4 x 1s, 2s, and 4s.  The race is there for the taking in the 4x2 for Dallas Gold (Timberview TX) and 4x4 for Eleanor Roosevelt MD.  They are both US#1s with decisive distance on the fields, but not quite in record range.  The 4x1 doesn’t have quite that quality.

The long sprint medley, on the other hand, will be deep and strong, with Southern Regional and Eleanor Roosevelt prefacing their DMR battle.  Here, though, Eleanor Roosevelt probably has too much speed.  Oak Ridge FL, with Odekia Bent on the anchor, and Benjamin Cardozo NY, which includes Dalilah Muhammad and Lindsay Rowe, should also make things interesting.  Uniondale NY and Oak Ridge FL lead the short sprint medley.

What 2 Watch 4:  It’s not easy to keep up with, but try to watch who does what for Eleanor Roosevelt and how they distribute their energy over the meet in trying to claim 4 big relay titles. 

Record Possibilities:  The best shot may be Eleanor Roosevelt in the sprint medley, but none of the meet or US marks will go down easily here this year.

The Predictions: 

4x100:  1. Timberview TX, 2. Acorn TC/Berkeley CA, 3. Therrell GA.  Winning time:  46.25.

4x200:  1. Timberview TX, 2. Collinwood OH, 3. Miami Northwestern FL.  Winning time:  1:36.75.

4x400:  1. Eleanor Roosevelt MD, 2. Miami Northwestern FL, 3. Uniondale NY.  Winning Time:  3:40.5

1600 Sprint Medley:  1. Eleanor Roosevelt MD, 2. Southern Regional NJ, 3. Oak Ridge FL

800 Sprint Medley:  1. Uniondale NY, 2. Oak Ridge FL, 3. Dragon Elite (East Orange) NJ.  Winning time:  1:42.5

Girls Throws

The Buzz:  Not bad.  How far can they move up the all time list and can any records be broken?  That’s basically what it comes down to for defending champ Kamorean Hayes NC in the shot and Emily Pendleton OH in the discus.  Pendleton, who could get pushed if Kylie Spurgeon OK is really ready to throw, is just 5 feet from the national mark.  Hayes, from her indoor best of 52-08, is just over two feet out.  Pendleton probably has the better chance, having reportedly thrown over 190 in practice many times.

What 2 Watch 4:  Pendleton needs a breakout throw at least back in the 180s.  She’s really consistent in the high 160s recently, but is trying to put it back together to surpass that PR of 183-03 from earlier in the year.  Spurgeon is the only other one over 170.  With 22 at 44 or better, the shot field is deep.  The real battle will likely be for second, with at least seven with a realistic shot at it.  In the jav, none of the top 5 in the country are here, giving defending champ Karlee McQuillen PA, who has not been able to PR this year, a stronger chance to repeat.  Allison Horner GA has the top 3 marks on the hammer list; her toughest competition is six feet back.

Record Possibilities:  With a good day, Pendleton will get the meet mark of 175-09 and have a shot at Suzy Powell’s US mark of 188-04.  Hayes may break through to the 53s, but the 54s where the meet and USR live will be tough.

The Predictions: 

Shot Put:  1. Kamorean Hayes NC, 2. Karen Shump PA, 3. Danica Haight IA.  Winning mark:  53-02

Discus:  1. Emily Pendleton OH, 2. Kylie Spurgeon OK, 3. Mary Angell MI.  Winning mark:  185-07

Javelin:  1. Karlee McQuillen PA, 2. Tara Karin, 3. Meghan Austin AL.  Winning mark:  155-06

Hammer:  .1. Allison Horner GA, 2. Victoria Flowers RI, 3. Patrice Gates GA.  Winning mark:  176-06.

Girls Jumps

The Buzz:  Moderate.  Fans won’t have the chance to watch record-holders like Tori Anthony in the PV or Ke’Nyia Richardson in the TJ from the Golden State, but what they can look forward to is the top two high jumpers in the country battling it out and another great dual between the #2 and #4 vaulters. 

What 2 Watch 4:
  Soph US record-holder Shade Weygandt TX and Rachel Laurent LA are developing a great rivalry, with Laurent winning NIN and Weygandt taking the Great Southwest title.  Neither is quite in 14-foot territory, but 13-06 to 13-09 is a strong possibility.  Victoria Lucas and Brittani Carter went 1-2 in Texas at 6-01 and 6-00.  They will meet up again for the first time since then.  And don’t count out last year’s USATF Junior Champ, Patience Coleman NC, who was over 6-00 multiple times last year.

The long jump looked like a battle of mid-high 19-footers until this week when 20-03 performer and defending champ Arantxa King added her name to the fray.  King won’t be doing the TJ, so 5 40-footers, led by Stephanie McIntyre NJ, will battle it out.  Look for Gaby Baiter to rise up for the mild upset.

Record Possibilities:
  All of the national records look pretty safe, but the meet PV record is just 13-02.50, which should go down.  Amy Acuff’s MR 6-02 HJ could go, too, if the Texas girls get going.

The Predictions:

High Jump:  1. Brittani Carter TX, 2. Victoria Lucas TX, 3. Patience Coleman NC.  Winning mark:  6-00.50

Pole Vault:  1. Shade Weygandt TX, 2. Rachel Laurent LA, 3. Stephanie Foreman AR.  Winning mark:  13-08

Long Jump:  1. Arantxa King MA, 2. Shakia Forbes VA, 3. Audra Frimpong OH.  Winning mark:  20-02

Triple Jump:  1. Gabriella Baiter NY, 2. Rachel Butler VA, 3. Stephanie McIntyre NJ

NIN home page