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NXN Finals
12/6/08 - Portland Meadows, Portland OR

Girls Championship
Team Preview

Experience rules when it comes to conquering NXN

Preview by SteveU, senior editor, DyeStat | ESPN RISE

So what does it take for a team to win at Nike Cross Nationals, to travel across the country and compete in what are frequently adverse conditions, to face a bunch of other nearly equally talented teams, most of which you’ve never competed against? 

If it was simply raw talent, then the outcome of these races would be easy to predict.

But here at Portland Meadows – at once a cold, blustery, muddy (usually) quagmire of a meet and also a boiling cauldron of talent – experience matters most.  Experience rules.  If you’re used to running in this stuff, if you’re used to running here, if you’re used to running in what annually sets new standards for the deepest field in any XC meet ever, well, then maybe you have a chance.  Experience matters more here than in any other meet a prep distance runner will compete in.

So how will this principal affect the girls championship race?  Teams like US#2 Saugus CA (Saugus XC), #4 Fort Collins CO (Fort Collins XC), and #5 Collins Hill GA (Suwanee XC) don’t run in the typical NXN conditions at all during the year, but all competed here in 2007 with many from their current casts and should be ready to step up.  This will be the third straight year for US#6 Tatnall (Wilmington XC) with previous finishes that were solid (12th in 2006) and mediocre (20th in 2007), but their team is better and more hard-boiled than ever and should be ready to break out. 

US#3 Geneva IL (Geneva XC) – now they are a first-time team here and will have to be very focused and ready to overcome adversity if they want to live up to their ranking.

But then there’s the Stotans.  The girls of US#1 Fayetteville-Manlius (Manlius XC).

Experience?  Maybe it’s too general a word to describe what this club has here.  This club has owned NXN.  They are who you think of first now when you think of this meet.  Two years ago, they won by 50 points; last year by 88.

Molly Malone, MacKenzie Carter, Kathryn Buchan and Courtney Chapman have been part of both championship teams … and are back again.  Hannah Luber was on last year’s champions.  Chapman has emerged as a dominant #1, one of the top 10-12 girls in the country at her best.  At NXN NY, Malone, Carter, Luber, and senior “newcomer” Meaghan Anklin finished within two seconds of each other (photo at right, by John Nepolitan from NXN NY) with Chapman – who was actually ill and having an “off” day – 13 seconds ahead.  Chapman should be at full strength Saturday and if Fay-Man can put four together that close behind her, or even close to that close, they could score ridiculously low. 

It would be tough to beat the score of 51 put up by Saratoga NY (Kinetic) in 2004.  After all, that team had the amazing quartet of Nicole Blood, Lindsay Ferguson, Hannah Davidson, and Caitlin Lane.  But while you got the sense that Kinetic was a team of stars, with Fay-Man, you’ve just got one sickeningly deep “team.”  Other than Chapman, they don’t really blow you away as individuals.  But together … watch out.

There’s a sense that for any other team to have a chance of winning, they would have to have a “best-ever day” and for at least two Manlius girls to have serious off days.

Otherwise, look for Manlius to win by at least 50 again. 

It’s not that there aren’t some other very deserving teams out there, capable of winning national titles in any other scenario. 

Saugus has had a stretch of dominance in California that rivals Fay-Man’s in many ways and took a turn (3 weeks) as US#1 in The Harrier ranking.  They rewrote the record book again at both Mt. SAC in October and CIF last weekend, with team times of 88:18 (17:40 per girl for 2.94M) and 90:06 (18:01 per girl for 5K).

Most importantly, last fall they were here in Portland, finishing 2nd and putting to rest the notion that fair-weather California teams couldn’t come here and do well.  They lost some firepower from that team (three girls), especially senior Katie Dunn, but Kaylin Mahoney (right, John Dye photo from Mt. SAC) is maturing into a leader, on and off the course, for Saugus and they have had improvement from runners like Brianna Jauregui and Amber Murakami, as well as newcomers filling in.

With their experience from Portland last year, and with that potential of good weather Saturday, Fay-Man must take them very, very seriously.

The other key contenders:

  • Tatnall DE – It’s hard not to like Tatnall right now.  Theyput an exclamation point on their season with their decisive 27-point win at NXN SE over a very good Collins Hill team.  That followed a 15-point whitewash of the field in its state meet.  Does this year seem different to Coach Patrick Castagno?  “It does feel different,” he said.  “The kids are more focused about doing well and I think we’ll know how to handle things in Portland better.”
In Cary, the DE dynasty ran aggressively; at the mile mark there was a wall of Tatnall – Juliet Bottorff, Kaitlin Buenaga, and Haley Pierce – ahead of eventual 1-2 Amanda Winslow and Madeline Morgan.  Each of the trio faded somewhat, but not nearly enough to give anyone else a chance.  “They punched us in the mouth that first mile,” said Collins Hill coach Andrew Hudson, “and we never really recovered.”

Tatnall may want to temper that aggression just a wee bit, given the magnitude of the competition, but long-time leader Bottorff has company on her team now and this trio and their 4-5 should help this school finally get a top-5 or better spot.
  • Fort Collins CO – They were 7th in their first NXN foray and will be hoping to improve on that mark.  They lost one graduate from the 07 team, and have not last year’s top returnee Lisa Reyna due to illness/injury, but that didn’t keep them from a dominant year that had them ranked #1 in the SW most of the year.  At state, while their Miranda Benzel-led team won 5A, the day ended with their having the 2nd best set of results overall, with Classical Academy’s overpowering 3A win taking the cake.  But at NXN SW, they were a decisive winner with 61 points to Classical’s 105, securing their spot as a top-five contender.
  • Collins Hill GA – The fairly decisive loss to Tatnall at NXN SE was a mild setback, but this team will bounce back and compete hard for the podium this weekend.  The Great American champs, which also won their 6A state meet with a ridiculously low 19 points, are led by sisters Amanda and Vicky Winslow, and Nicky Akande.  They were 19th in their first trip here last year, but expect the benefit of experience – there’s that word again – and maturity to help boost them at least 10 spots in the standings.
  • Geneva IL – Led by Kelly Whitley and Sarah Heuer, this team has had a stunning year, with its record margin of victory at IL State the big highlight.  They were favored at NXN MW and won by a moderate margin … but they didn’t quite show their power at the front.  Now with three weeks having passed, Geneva is in a situation of not being race-sharp, and not being familiar with the course and NXN – all the while trying to show they’re one of the top three teams in the country.  It would probably enhance the Illinois power’s chances if their top two pushed to stay within shouting distance of the leaders, while their other runners really packed together.

And a few more things to watch:

  • MASS-ive TeamworkNewton South MA (Newton Centre XC) and Lincoln-Sudbury MA (Mercury XC), the Massachusetts powerhouses that may be the top teams in the Northeast quarter of the country after Fay-Man, have the best girls state rivalry in the sport right now.  They take turns beating up on each other, but NS had a streak of 3 or 4 wins between the teams this fall (in the same league, etc.) before L-S came up the winner at NXN NE.  Neither team features a really outstanding front-runner, but strong, fast pack-running.  NS was ranked US#7 before NXN NE and L-S #15, but the reality is a lot closer.  A top eight finish for either or both teams – maybe higher – would be reasonable, but the group that keeps its spread tightest will get the edge.
  • Local Power – Close to home is a good thing in a meet like this and, in the case of US#8 Jesuit HS (Crusader Harriers) of Portland, it’s a very good thing.  Jesuit has been 16th, 18th, and 12th in three previous NXNs (every year but 05), but this year’s group is really good.  They won NXN NW by 63, the 6A state meet by 72, and the pre-nats meet on this course by 74.  They’ve combined the youthful talent of the likes of soph state champ Annamarie Maag with the veteran leadership of sr Noelle Van Rysselberghe
  • The (Not So) Evil Empire (State) – If you think that with none of the other New York powers ranked in the last Top 10, that there’s going to only be one team from that state finishing that high, you’re very likely mistaken.  Saratoga (Kinetic RC), 2nd in NXN NY last weekend, won the first NXN and has had two other top-three finishes.  Burnt Hills (Burnt Hills XC), which picked up an at-large bid, was fifth in its first NXN in 2007.  Neither of these teams has top ten love in the US team rankings right now, but it would not be surprising at all if that changes Saturday.
  • Indirect Impact – The one pocket of the country that has the reason for the most displeasure with how the at-large selection process worked this year is central Indiana.  The US#10 Carmel girls swept through the Hoosier State all year, but then were 3rd behind Geneva and Rocky River Magnificat OH (Blue Streaks XC) at NXN MW.  In the Harrier Top 25 published after that, Carmel was still US#10 behind #9 Magnificat and #3 Geneva, but didn’t get to join the party in Portland because of a lack of at-large points.  Strong finishes by the two Midwest teams that did make it would indirectly boost the view of the Indiana power.

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