New Jersey Meet of Champions Preview
by Conrad Haber
11/15/99 -- This past weekend, Holmdel park proved to be the true test, the measuring
stick, for all of the runners in NJ. As the course has done in previous
years, it made some runners seem immortal, while making others feel
the sting of a season that has slipped away. The morning of the State
Group Meet, there was slight chill, the air was crisp, and you could feel
the tension mounting all around as anxious runners anticipated their
races.
But this atmosphere will be nothing in comparison to what lies ahead at
the State Meet of Champions. There is not a meet on the XC calendar
that carries with it more importance than the MOC (for short), for at this
race you can prove to anyone in the state that you mean business, by
having a really great performance. By the same token, if one does not
perform up to standard at this meet he will be looked upon in
a lesser light from that point forward in the running community. This
amount of extreme drama sets the stage for what always transpires into a
great day of racing, for some thrive under the pressure, while others
crumble to pieces.
THE TEAM CHAMPIONS
Who will win the team competition? Well, unless you have been living
under a rock, you know that the team champion will be CBA. They are
ranked nationally, and for good cause. On the incredibly challenging
Holmdel course, CBA's top 4 packed it together within 1 sec of each
other, running in the 16:28-16:29 range. With this front 4 CBA managed
to win the Parochial A division with a score of 17. So with this in
mind, let us consider the rest of the field that will be competing for
2nd, for it seems that CBA will sit atop the pedestal of greatness for
another year, culminating years of dominance in the Meet of Champions.
The next best squad looks to be Cherokee, the Group IV team champion, who
was in the same positon last year, as they finished 2nd to CBA. With the
resurgence of an inspired Joe Halin, who clocked a blistering 16:09 at
the Group Meet and the rise of new comer Marc Pelerin, the Cherokee Chiefs
are poised to capture another 2nd place overall finish. They still
maintain a tight pack behind their top 2 runners and with Steve Shacklee
at the helm behind the Cherokee Machine, you know that they will not
flounder at the state meet of champions. Shacklee has one of the best
reputations in the state for molding young runners into champions and he
will once again succeed.
As for the third place position, that spot looks
to be secured by Paul VI, who finished 2nd to CBA in the parochial A
divison. They lack a lead runner, which will hurt them a bit in the old
point pocket book, but they have a tight pack that spreads 14 seconds from
1st to 5th. With a pack of this caliber they should easily be able to
attain a 3rd place finish, but their lack of a lead runner will cost them
second. As for the rest, Washington Twp, who placed 2nd in the Group IV
divison, looks to finish 4th behind the trio of Brian Skelly, Mark Weems
and Adam Driscoll. They have been lacking a 5th man all season and the
State Group Meet only magnified this short coming. But with a solid
performance from their 5th man at the Meet of Champions, say a time in and
around 17:15, they might have a shot at 3rd, knocking off rival Paul VI.
On the ropes for a possible 3rd or 4th place finish are Red Bank Regional,
the Goup III winner and Old Bridge the Goup IV 3rd place finisher. Red
Bank regional gets the nod, as they should be helped out by the possible 1
point they could recieve from there star runner Walton Kinsgbury, not to
mention the fact that they have a top three that rivals Washington
Township, having 2 and 3 runners that ran in the 16:28 and the 16:40
range. The team predictions going 6 deep are:
1. CBA
2. Cherokee
3. Paul VI
4. Washington Township
5. Red Bank Regional
6. Old Bridge
INDIVIDUAL
The individual race is going to be the showcase event of the day, as there
are no real definate favorites to win. There are 3 runners who are in
direct contention for the title, Brian Kerwin from CBA, Walton Kingsbury
from Red Bank and Joe Halin from Cherokee. But there are also some other
runners who pose a major threat to the crown, Mark Baunach, Nick
Pellegrino, Mike Myers, Jeff Dichiara and Brian Skelly.
Brian Kerwin is the the favorite, if there is one, amidst all these great
runners. He has posted some incredible times this year, especially his
performance at the Manhattan invitational. But Kingsbury and Halin are no
slackers. Halin, although pretty much unheard of all season due to back
problems, has stepped back into his role as a top runner in NJ with his
16:09 performance, that led to the Group IV individual crown. A time of
this caliber is usually seen and associated with names such as Nate Miller
and Jon Fasulo, so Joe Halin is in good company. He is looking strong,
tough and now he has his thirst back for a win. He is going to be tough to
beat especially when you know that Steve Shacklee is preparing him for the
race, Shacklee will surely devise a race plan that will help Halin in his
quest for the title. Kingsbury, has run great all year and with his 16:11
performance at the Group Meet, he looks able to put forth another great
race at the Meet of Champions. Kingsbury who is a real tough competitor,
has had the advantage of running Holmdel park numerous times in the
regular season. Not to be forgotten in our discussion, however, is his
superior track speed. Last year he clocked 4:17 in the mile, the fastest
mile PR of any of the competitors running at the Meet of Champions. If
anyone is near him in the last 800 meters, they won't be at the finish
line.
But what about the Dark Horses? Brain Skelly, when in top shape is known
to be a tough competitor, as, for example, when he finished 3rd in last
year's Group IV race behind Nate Miller and Jon Fasulo in a time of 16:18.
If he is properly prepared for the race that day, he can surely go out and
be a top contendor for the individual title. As for the other runners,
Mark Banach, Mike Meyers, Jeff Dichiara and Nick Pelegrino all have
outside shots, but are probably going to be overshadowed by the better
runners that they have faced all season long.
The race looks to play out as such: there will be an early pace setter,
possibly Myers, Skelly, Halin or Kerwin, but a pack will break off from
the masses at around the first mile mark with Kerwin, Kingsbury, Halin and
Pellegrino. They will stay within about 5 sec of each other through the
bowl, where, apon exiting the bowl, Kerwin and Halin will seperate from
the lead pack, leaving Pellegrino and Kinsgsbury to duke it out. Kerwin
will then take a surge at around the tennis courts and gain some
seperation from Halin. Halin will close up the gap, but, with the energy
spent on that surge, he will be a little flat for the final straightaway.
This is where Kerwin will pull away, finshing about 4 or 5 seconds faster.
The top 10 finsihers:
1. Brian Kerwin
2. Joe Halin
3. Walton Kingsubry
4. Nick Pelegrino
5. Brian Skelly
6. Mark Baunach
7. Jeff Dichiara
8. Mike Myers
9. John Rodriguez
10. Pat Slattery
A side note, all of these runner should be sub-16:30 with the top 3 under
16:15, with possibly a low 16-high 15 performance by Halin and Kerwin.
