New Jersey Group IV Predictions

a column by Conrad Haber

(Conrad Haber is a journalism student at University of Maryland Baltimore County, but his heart belongs to South Jersey.  This is his first column for DyeStat.

11/10/99 -- The time of year is upon us again, the leaves are falling, the wind
carries a slight chill, and state cross country competition is
gearing up for one of the biggest meets on the calendar, the State Group
Championships. Every year this meet tends to carry with it massive
amounts of competition and excitement, and this year proves to be no
different. As in most recent years, the most exciting race looks to be
the men's Group IV race since the #2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18 and
20 top ranked teams in the state will face off.

MENS GROUP IV

This years Group IV race, as with many past years, looks to be dominated
by South Jersey.  The team races and the individual races
look to be tight, but as usual, there are clear favorites among the sea of
competitors that will toe the line.

The team contest for the Group championship is between 3 schools, Cherokee
ranked #2 in the state, Washington Twp #4 and Old
Bridge  #5. Although Wash. Twp defeated Cherokee in
the early season Shore Coaches Invitational, a repeat victory will be a
little more difficult to attain. This is not the same Cherokee squad that
raced at Shore Coaches. With the addition of front runner Joe Halin,
Cherokee no longer has to worry about lost points from lack of a lead
runner, not to mention that Halin has the chorus behind him. With a top 5
finish expected of Halin, and the strength of the Cherokee pack, which has
changed through about every meet this season due to their depth, 
I would have to finger them the champions. Twp has a legitimate shot but they 
have to get their act together. Bryan Skelly would have
to win, and Mark Weems and Adam Driscoll would have to come in right
behind Joe Halin. Then they would have to pray that their 4th and 5th men
come together, since they have not been running well as of late. In the
Olympic Conference meet their 5th man really hurt them with a lack luster
performance. Township needs their 4th and 5th men to run with the
Cherokee pack to come out on top. But do not count out Old Bridge for a
2nd place finish. If for any reason Twp's 4th or 5th men have really off
days, and Old Bridge is on, they could sneak in there -- not likely, but 
possible.

The predicted finish of top 4 squads (I mention 4 cause there is an at
large bid given in the State Group Meet for the State Meet of Champions,
and this year that squad will be from Goup IV)

1.Cherokee
2.Washington Township
3.Old Bridge
4.Eastern or Windsor-Plainsboro

The Individual race is between 5 guys, Nick
Pellegrino, Bryan Skelly, Joe Halin, Mike Myers and Adam Ambros. The
latter 4 have faced each other all season since they are all part of South
Jersey's dominant conference, the Olympic Conference. However, at the
conference meet a week ago, Eastern and Mike Myers ducked the race. Was
it out of a fear of loss, I do not know, but it was not the right thing to
do. Rumors that were flying around that day were that his coaches and
himself felt that he had nothing to prove to anyone since he had beaten
the entire field at the SJ sectional meet the weekend before. That sounds
a bit too over confident, being that at the Conference meet Bryan Skelly
won in 15:36, 16 seconds off of Murad Campbell's course record.  So as most
people felt at that meet, Myers would have come in second. 

But that is behind us, and now Myers has to produce at the state meet, but he won't.
He will be lucky to come in third. Skelly had an off race at the section
meet but came back on track at Conferences. The race for the top
individual should be between him and Nick Pellegrino from Marlboro.
Pellegrino has the advantage of having run the challenging Holmdel Park
course many times this year, but Bryan Skelly always goes to the State
meets ready to play, and this year looks to be no different.
Pellegrino has run the 3rd fastest time at Holmdel this year at 16:24, but
Skelly has run faster than that last year running in the the sub 16:20
range. The race is shaping up to be a tough one, but I think Skelly will
come out on top, pulling away from Pellegrino right before the Tennis
courts after the bowl, about 2 1/2 miles in. The predicted order of finish

1. Bryan Skelly
2. Nick Pellegrino
3. Mike Meyers
4. Joe Halin
5. Adam Ambros

All of these runners will be sub 16:30 and look for Skelly and Pellegrino
to be under 16:20 if they decide to take it out hammering, which they
probably will since that is their style.

Other runnners to watch would be the two top freshman from SJ Dan Deichert
of Eastern and Ron Lacovara for Highland. Both have clocked in the
16:30's at Gloucester county college and have been running great all
season, they look to be the future of xcountry in SJ.

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