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1998 XC

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1998 Foot Locker Championship

John Molvar's Finals Analysis

3-man race looms in boys, but Powell Stands Tall

From: Patrick Hoffman [[email protected]]
Sent: Tuesday, December 08, 1998 4:20 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Final Footlocker Preview - from John Molvar

I have to say that John’s been doing a great job on his previews, and deserves a lot of credit. The best site for High School running is of course http://www.dyestat.com/ which has been posting all of John’s reviews.

I will forward any comments.

Patrick E. Hoffman

Cross Country, Track and Running Analysis http://www.cs.uml.edu/~phoffman/xc.html

 

Footlocker Final Preview

It looks like it will be a 3 man race between Andy Powell, George Torres and Josh Rohantinsky.

Powell comes in with track times far superior to the rest of the field and he proved in his last 3 races that he finally is also a great HS XC runner. He annihilated the field at the Northeast Region meet, and cruised in only 4 seconds slower than the Ab Mohamed ran last year. Mohamed is of course the only 2 time Footlocker Final winner.

Torres is probably the most experienced HS XC runner ever, making his unprecedented 4th trip to the final and he is a veteran of the World Junior XC Championships. He has never "had an off day" in a big XC race which is something his competitors should be wary of.

Upstart Rohantinsky made a miraculous recovery from an anemic condition that left him staggering across the line in only 6th in his own state meet, to have an easy win in the Footlocker West Region. He reportedly passed the 3 mile mark on the Mt SAC course in a time that has only been bettered by runners who have run 2 miles in 8.36, 8.44 and 8.46 and 2 others who were Footlocker Final champions. Hold on before you declare him the easy winner of this race. If the time claimed was accurate at 3 miles that means it took him 47 seconds to run the last 200 which is very slow jogging. Something doesn’t add up, but it was still a great comeback win by a solid margin over some excellent runners.

Look for Powell to take the field out in 4.25-4.30 on the pancake flat Disney course. Look for Torres to be right on Powell’s shoulder with Rohantinsky back a bit. I am sure that a handful of other runners will also be up there at this point but most of them will do it at their own risk and a couple of them will pay dearly.

The last time Powell competed with Torres it was in the playful atmosphere of a grade school soccer game in suburban Chicago. This time they will not be "playing" a "game". This time it will be a serious competition to determine who is the best HS XC runner in the country.

Look for Powell to hit 2 miles in 9.15-9.20. At this point Powell will likely be running alone and the race could already be over. Torres hasn’t been pressed all season until now and he will have to decide in the second mile whether or not he will go for the win at any cost or run for second. I suspect that since he already finished second last year and this is his last chance, there is no question that he will go for the win.

It is very difficult to beat Powell at his own game which is to run hard for the first two thirds of a race and then try to desperately hang on. Mohamed tried it 3 times on the track last year against Powell and all 3 times both runners faded, but Powell always faded the least and won. Frank Sanchez tried it in a 2 mile last Spring and the result was the same. This factor combined with the flat course favors Powell over Torres.

Look for a winning time that is almost 1 minute faster than Mohamed ran last year on the water inundated course. That first 4.25 mile will feel very fast for Torres who has a mile best not much faster than that, but it will feel comfortable for Powell who has run 4.05 (3.46 1500). Rohantinsky can only win if he doesn’t bite on the hard early pace and Powell and Torres both fade dramatically. It could happen, but don’t mortgage your house on it.

After the top 3, I am looking for a tight battle between Michigan teammates Jason Hartmann and Dathan Ritzenheim and New Englanders Sanchez and Louie Luchini. Hartmann had an undefeated record smashing season until he ran into Torres at Midwest Region meet. His training partner Ritzenheim, who is only a soph, is getting closer and closer to Hartmann and could eclipse him on Saturday. Wilkins has had his way in the South, but just like last year he will face major opposition for the first and last time in the Final. He was 23rd last year and should move way up this year. Good luck to all and have a great race.

1 Andy Powell, MA (20FF,8.59,4.05,1.53,51) Stanford

2 George Torres, IL (2FF,19.12,4.22) Colorado

3 *Josh Rohantinsky, UT (27FF,,9.11,4.23)

4 **Dathan Ritzenhein, MI (4.25,9.33)

5 Jason Hartmann, MI(4.14,9.14,1.55)

6 Frank Sanchez, MA (9.07)

7 Louie Luchini, ME (11FF,9.08,4.18)

8 Brad Wilkins, NC (23FF,4.12,9.18,1.58)

9 Jed Barta, ID (14.58 5K,4.13,9.21)

10 Adam Tenforde WA (4.15,9.13) Stanford

11 Dana Carne, NE (15.00 5000,4.17,9.31)

12 John Fawcett, TX(9.13,4.20)

13 Ed Torres, IL (6FF,9.12,4.21) Colorado

14 Tommy Bonn, TX (4.14,9.25)

15 Brian Godsey, OH (9.20)

16 Joe Barnes, OH (13FF,9.20)

17 Dave Christian, KY (4.17,9.19,1.58)

18 Celedonio Rodriquez, CA (9.43)

19 Nick Magnum, NC (9.25,4.25)

20 Neil Hanson, MN (4.18,1.56) Minnesota

21 Nate Miller, NJ (4.22,9.33)

22 *Josh Spiker, CA (9.21)

23 Tom Parlapian, PA (9.07,4.23)

24 *Aaron Emery, NY (9.21,4.27)

25 Dan Tebbano, NY (4.22,9.30)

26 *Jake Flynn, MI (9.44)

27 *Ian Dobson, OR (9.33)

28 Alex L’Heurvux, FL (9.37,4.24)

29 Juan Reyes, AZ (9.22)

30 Brett Winegar MT (9.33,4.22)

31 Jon Fasulo, NJ (9.24,4.28)

32 Josh Baker, NC (26FF,4.26,9.40)

33 Eddie Acosta, FL (9.46)

John Molvar

[email protected]

via Pat Hoffman

 

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