- Dec 1 - Nov 11 - Nov 4 - Initial Analysis -
Dec 1 update
SteveU’s Predicted Qualifiers (last ranking)
1. Michael Coe CA (9)
2. Matthew Tebo NM (7)
3. Diego Mercado CA (1)
4. A.J. Acosta CA (2)
5. Jeffrey Helmer WA (8)
6. Ben Sitler CA (3)
7. Issac Stoutenburgh OR (4)
8. Danny Mercado CA (6)
Predicted FL West qualifiers at NTN
1. Kenny Klotz OR
2. Michael Cybulski CA
Not running FL West: Kenny Klotz OR (with Central Catholic teammates at NTN), Michael Cybulski CA (with Royal teammates at NTN), Adam McDonald UT (with Mountain View teammates at NTN), Robert Cosby WA (with Joel Ferris teammates at NTN), Taylor Nepon WA (with Mead teammates at NTN).
Ten to Watch (Random Order): Mikel Thomas CA, Nathan Sellers CA, German Fernandez CA, Riley Booker CA, Jake Matthews CA, Marlon Patterson CA, Jerhoemee Murray OR, Joe Parker NV, Dustin Martin NM, Weston Jones AZ
Honorable Mention: Max O’Donoghue-McDonald WA, Patrick Milloy CA, Michael Chinchar WA, Joe Churchill WA, Dan Geib NV, Matt Frerker WA, Omar De Los Santos AZ, Tolan Thornton AZ, Jared Rohatinsky UT, Dak Riek WA, Gary Lorance WA, Nick Atwood WA, Sawyer Bosch ID, Lima Licivalter ID, Nolan Real Bird MT, Elliot Welder MT, Jeremy Kamaka'ala HI, James Bogner AZ, Simon Gilna NM, Ryan McNiff NM, Craig Curley AZ, Zach Gussin WA, Chad Hall CA.
12/1 Season Rankings (last ranking)
(based on season performance)
1. Diego Mercado CA (1)
2. A.J. Acosta CA (2)
3. Kenny Klotz OR (5)
4. Michael Coe CA (9)
5. Matthew Tebo NM (7)
6. Ben Sitler CA (3)
7. Issac Stoutenburgh OR (4)
8. Jeffrey Helmer WA (8)
9. Danny Mercado CA (6)
10. Michael Cybulski CA (10)
FL West Race Breakdown:
What seemed a few weeks ago to be a fairly easy race to pick, at least at the top, has grown some dramatic plotlines. Does the fastest-of-the-day CIF state meet time for Michael Coe mean he is suddenly the man to beat? Can Diego Mercado recover from his fall, and lost potential Cali. D1 title, last week to win on his favorite course? Will AJ Acosta show the form that won him Stanford early in the season and avenge his loss at Mt. SAC? Or was the fast Border War win that NM’s Matt Tebo picked up two weeks ago indicative of Shadrack Kiptoo-type talent that could claim the title?
And this is all without Kenny Klotz OR, who is racing NTN in his home state this weekend and would probably be my pick right now to win here … if he was here.
The perception is that the contenders-to-win list has at least doubled from what it was several weeks ago. But, as is always the case in an FL region meet, there will be some who are just running to qualify.
So, noting the rising stock of the new adds to the top list, I’m picking Coe and Tebo to take 1-2. Coe, in winning D3 at state last week posted the fastest time of the day with 15:04, beating the formidable Ben Sitler by 25 seconds. Starting with his D3 Boys Sweeps win at Mt. SAC in 14:50, he has had a string of races that indicate a solid upswing. Is he definitely better than Diego or AJ? No, but given all the circumstances, he’s a good choice to win.
Tebo, the only non-senior of the four, was 16th here last year and ran 9:04 in the spring. He has ruled NM, but lacked competition this fall. But after the 15:16 at Border War, beating Kiptoo’s course record by five seconds at more than 5,000 feet, he can’t be taken as anything less than a threat to win here and place high at nationals.
And if he continues to improve into the future, who knows, Tebo (not to be confused with TiVo or Tae Bo) could acquire that single name recognition that Pele, Shaq, and Madonna have enjoyed (Can you imagine a stadium full of people shouting “TE-BO! TE-BO! TE-BO!”)
I digress. Anyway, Mercado, who had such a wonderful race at Mt. SAC, has kept a low profile since, doing only what it took to advance to state. But an entanglement that led to a fall led to a DNF and he was seen icing a hamstring after the race. Word on the boards is that he’s ok and will be at or near full strength Saturday, back on “his” course, but we’ll see.
Meanwhile, Acosta was very impressive winning Stanford early in the year, but has not put anything out there to raise eyebrows since. The first sign that he might not be at peak form was when he lost Mt. SAC by 16 seconds to Mercado. Then he advanced through leagues and sections with average (for him) performances before winning D1 state last week in 15:15. Good, but not great (for him). Still, AJ could be directing everything toward one big bang at Balboa. Until I see otherwise, I won’t remove that notion from possibility.
Anyone else breaking into that top four doesn’t look too likely, but the choice is for two more Californians and two more northwest runners to crack the top eight.
Ben Sitler CA, wasn’t dynamite (in place, etc.) at state last week, but he’s been very solid all season otherwise and should earn a spot if he’s healthy. Diego’s brother, Danny Mercado, didn’t run well after his brother went down last week, either, but who can forget the way he ran almost beating AJ at Mt. SAC and shadowing his twin in most races since? The talent is there and (especially) if Diego qualifies Saturday, his brother is a very good bet to do so, too.
My other two picks are Issac Stoutenburgh OR and Jeff Helmer WA, neither of whom ran great at Border Clash, but have otherwise been superlative all year. Their mutual peak seemed to be at Jim Danner, where Issac won, Helmer was third, and Klotz was sandwiched in-between, all between 15:03-15:05. Klotz’s stock has since surpassed both; he beat Stoutenburgh at OR state by 21 seconds. Issac was third behind Klotz and Jerhoemee Murray at Border Clash. Helmer was further back in sixth.
Still, both Issac and Jeff have had the season to back up their selections and I think they’ll rise to the occasion. Those who performed better at Border Clash lack the backup performances to establish a trend. Any of the second 10 could surprise, though.
NTN Breakdown for Potential West Qualifiers:
The story on the two West qualifiers from NTN to Foot Locker Nationals can be summed up in four words: Kenny Klotz. Michael Cybulski.
With his races at OR state and Border Clash, Klotz has strongly confirmed not only his status as the top runner in the northwest, but that of being potentially the top runner in the West and a serious contender for the title of Foot Locker National Champion. After the narrow early-season loss at Danner, he decisively won state then overcame an early fall to take the battle against the state to the north.
At NTN, Klotz should battle NC’s Jack Bolas for first overall.
Cybulski has had a season somewhat tainted by injury, but his race at the CIF state meet last weekend (3rd in D1) confirmed he’s getting into top form. He should be no worse than a clear second among West runners if he at least matches that. Also, given that he was among those that expressed outrage on DyeStat Track Talk when it looked like NTN and Foot Locker might not reach a deal, he now has to walk the walk.
Robert Cosby WA, fourth at Border Clash, is probably the next best choice.
Nov 4 update
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Diego Mercado CA (2)
2. A.J. Acosta CA (1)
3. Ben Sitler CA (HM)
4. Issac Stoutenburgh OR (3)
5. Kenny Klotz OR (4)
6. Danny Mercado CA (HM)
7. Matthew Tebo NM (7)
8. Jeffrey Helmer WA (6)
9. Michael Coe CA (HM)
10. Michael Cybulski CA (5)
11. Patrick Milloy CA (9)
12. Riley Booker CA (10)
13. Adam McDonald UT (HM)
14. Taylor Nepon WA (NR)
15. Zach Gussin WA (NR)
HM: Jake Matthews CA, Dustin Martin NM, Michael Chinchar WA, Joe Churchill WA, Mikel Thomas CA, Dan Geib NV, Nathan Sellers CA, Marlon Patterson CA, Matt Frerker WA, Omar De Los Santos AZ, Max O’Donoghue-McDonald WA, Tolan Thornton AZ, Jared Rohatinsky UT, Dak Riek WA, Gary Lorance WA, Nick Atwood WA, Sawyer Bosch ID, Lima Licivalter ID, Nolan Real Bird MT, Elliot Welder MT
Analysis:
Obviously, Mt. SAC has been the news here the past two weeks. Beyond the top nationally ranked guys, Michael Coe CA did himself justice with his fine 14:50 to win one of the earlier races. Some other shiftings in the rankings (and additions with the expansion to 15) also took place.
Except for HI and CA, the state meet season will be complete after this weekend. Championships in NM, NV, AZ, OR, and WA are all on tap tomorrow. Admittedly, my assessments of OR and WA to date have been largely limited to the trio from that great Jim Danner meet – Stoutenburgh, Klotz, and Helmer. Now the rest of the competition from the states that brought us Pre and Lindgren will have a chance to show me where I’ve been neglectful. Of course, the BorderClash a few weeks down the road will be another titanic showdown.
I don’t have any results showing where Matt Tebo has competed against any ranked runners this fall in NM, but he’s been dominant in that state and will be a heavy favorite at state Saturday. As the 6th returnee from FL West and a 9:04 runner, you’d better expect he’ll be right in the mix in December.
I’m also looking for some contenders to step up tomorrow at the AZ and NV state meets. NV standouts Joseph Parker and Dan Geib have struggled with injuries and may not be ready to fulfill the potential they showed last year. As for AZ, well that’s the state that brought you Kenny Cormier last year and join me in raising your hands if you saw HIM coming last year at this point. I didn’t think so … okay, you, but you’re FROM Arizona!
Anyway …
The state meet in UT went down shortly after my first analysis and the big name to remember from there is Adam McDonald. With a 15:34, he cruised the fastest time of the day by 22 seconds and should be at least a contender for those last qualifying spots.
Initial Analysis
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. A.J. Acosta CA (No. 1 nationally)
2. Diego Mercado CA (No. 5 nationally)
3. Issac Stoutenburgh OR (No. 7 nationally)
4. Kenny Klotz OR (No. 8 nationally)
5. Michael Cybulski CA (No. 10 nationally)
6. Jeffrey Helmer WA
7. Matthew Tebo NM
8. Mikel Thomas CA
9. Patrick Milloy CA
10. Riley Booker CA
HM: Ben Sitler CA, Danny Mercado CA, Michael Coe CA, Dan Geib NV, Marlon Patterson CA, Matt Frerker WA, Max O’Donoghue-McDonald, Tolan Thornton AZ, Jared Rohatinsky UT
Analysis:
Four of the top eight from FL West return from last year and, barring disaster, three look to be locks to return to San Diego. A.J. Acosta actually is the top national returnee from 2004 and has done nothing to dispute his rank, with his 15:13 Stanford win the shining testament. Similarly, Mercado and Klotz have been mostly outstanding since last fall, but Booker has not really backed up his creds. Mercado set a CR 14:13 for 3M at the Woodbridge course and only Acosta was faster than him at Stanford.
The big add to the list of returnees is Stoutenburgh, just 76th last year, obviously not indicative of what he can do. His Jim Danner win over Klotz and Helmer puts him squarely on the national contender list. There’s also the junior, Cybulski, who was last spring’s track revelation as a soph, winning the state 3200, and his Clovis win last week confirmed his contender status.
Another CA junior, Thomas, is the top returnee from last year’s sophomores. Tebo, the No. 6 returnee and also an 11th-grader, has been tearing up NM this fall and could move up. After that, the contender list broadens considerably. More Californians – Danny Mercado and Ben Sitler – are poised to break into the group if Malloy or Booker should falter.
Much more will be known after this weekend’s Mt. SAC race in California.
Top 15 Returnees
1. (3rd) Diego Mercado CA 15:46
2. (5th) A.J. Acosta, CA 15:50
3. (6th) Kenny Klotz OR 15:52
4. (7th) Riley Booker CA 15:53
5. (10th) Mikel Thomas CA 16:07
6. (16th) Matthew Tebo NM 16:21
7. (18th) Patrick Milloy CA 16:25
8. (20th) Jeffrey Helmer WA 16:25
9. (23rd) Paul Burke WY 16:26
10. (26th) Joseph Parker NV 16:30
11. (29th) Daniel Mercado CA 16:35
12. (32nd) Dan Geib NV 16:36
13. (33rd) Elliot Welder MT 16:37
14. (34th) Simon Gilna NM 16:37
15. (35th) Nathan Romero NM 16:37
Contender Bios
1. A.J. Acosta, 2006, El Camino H.S., Oceanside CA
2005 CC: 1st Stanford 15:13, 1st Mt. Carmel (2.95M) 14:40
2005 Track: 4:10.08y USATF Distance Carnival, 6th NON 4:12.46y, 6th Arcadia 9:05.18y
2004 CC: 9th FLN 15:38, 5th FLW 15:50
2. Diego Mercado, 2006, West Covina H.S., West Covina CA
2005 CC: 2nd Stanford 15:19, 1st Woodbridge (3M) 14:13
2005 Track: 4:14.71 7th SS Masters, 4:14.79 4th Sou. Section, 9:04.84 2nd SS Masters, 11th Arcadia 9:09.75y, 14:25.89 (5k) 3rd US Jr.
2004 CC: 20th FLN 15:55, 3rd FLW 15:46
3. Issac Stoutenburgh, 2006, Crater Central Point H.S., Central Point, OR
2005 CC: 1st Jim Danner 15:03, 1st NW Classic 15:30
2005 Track: 9th USATF Jr. 3:53.99, 8:30.74 5th OR 4A State
2004 CC: 80th FLW
4. Kenny Klotz, 2006, Central Catholic H.S., Beaverton OR
2005 CC: 2nd Jim Danner 15:03, 3rd Woodbridge 14:32 (3M)
2005 Track: 3:53.77 1st Jesuit Twilight (1500), 12th NON 4:15.75y, 8:21.24 2nd 4AState (3k), 9th Arcadia 9:08.09y
2004 CC: 24th FLN 16:03, 6th FLW 15:52
5. Michael Cybulski, 2007, Royal HS, CA
2005 CC: 1st Clovis 15:20, 5th Stanford (3rd American) 15:31
2005 Track: 1st CIF 9:02.57, Arcadia 9:13.44y
2004 CC: DNC FLW
6. Jeffrey Helmer, 2006, Jackson HS, Snohomish WA
2005 CC: 3rd Jim Danner 15:04
2005 Track: 9:02.7 1st Bellevue Inv
2004 CC: 20th FLW 16:25
7. Matthew Tebo, 2007, Eldorado HS, Albuquerque NM
2005 CC: 15:21 1st Albu. City, 15:37 1st Albu. Acad.
2005 Track: 4th GWI 9:04.93
2004 CC: 16th FLW 16:21
8. Mikel Thomas, 2007, Clovis HS, CA
2005 CC: 2nd Clovis 15:22
2005 Track: 11th CIF 9:21.64
2004 CC: 10th FLW 16:07
9. Patrick Milloy, 2006, Murrieta Valley HS, CA
2005 CC: 4th Woodbridge 14:35 (3M), 1st Inland Empire 14:52 (3M)
2005 Track: 9:07.95 6th SS Masters, Arcadia 9:13.68y
2004 CC: 18th FLW 16:25
10. Riley Booker, 2006, University City H.S., San Diego CA
2005 CC: Griak, 8th Woodbridge 14:42 (3M)
2005 Track: 4:15.6 Cal section
2004 CC: 7th FLW 15:53, 30th FLN 16:18
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- Dec 1 - Nov 11 - Nov 4 - Initial Analysis -
Dec 1 update
SteveU’s Predicted Top 10 (last ranking)
1. Marie Lawrence NV (1)
2. Megan O’Reilly WA (2)
3. Jordan Hasay CA (3)
4. Kauren Tarver CA (4)
5. Shannon Murakami CA (9)
6. Kari Hardt AZ (6)
7. Christine Babcock CA (HM)
8. Lauren Ho HI (NR)
Predicted Top Two at NTN from FL West Region
1. Annie St. Geme CA
2. Dana Morgan ID
Not running FL West: Anne St. Geme CA (Corona del Mar teammates at NTN), Dana Morgan ID (and Boise teammates at NTN), Crystal Pitney AK (and West Valley teammates at NTN), Cassie Ricks UT (with Fremont teammates at NTN).
Ten to Watch (Random Order): Lauren Saylor CA, Kevyn Murphy CA, Katy Andrews CA, Kevyn Murphy CA, Claire Michel OR, Samantha Gaffney UT, Jessica Pixler WA, Crystal Reed WA, Vanessa Ortiz NM, Christy Adamyk CA, Alex Kosinski CA
Honorable Mention: Ilsa Paulson OR, Anna Sperry CA, Alex Kosinski CA, Becca Friday WA, Jennifer Macias OR, Irena Ossola NM, Tess Amer NM, Wendy Harris NV, Tara Erdman AZ, Bronwyn Crossman WA, Stephanie Sipes WA, Karleigh Gempler OR, Sheryl Page OR, Brooke Andrus MT, Anne Lovelace ID, Crystal Harper UT, Lindsay Prescott AZ, Julie Brasher NM, Hilary McClendon ID, Brittney Morreale CA, Ellie Reed UT, Ashlen Nimmo WY, Emily Higgins WY, Karleigh Gempler ID, Katie Gilboy MT, Anna Layman WA, Paige Patillo WA, Michelle Schubert WA, Kristin Phillips AZ, Alyssa O’Connor OR, Holly Dieu OR, Whitney Blue CA, Elizabeth Coe CA.
12/1 Season Rankings (last ranking)
(based on season performance)
1. Marie Lawrence NV (1)
2. Megan O’Reilly WA (2)
3. Jordan Hasay CA (3)
4. Anne St. Geme CA (5)
5. Kauren Tarver CA (4)
6. Kari Hardt AZ (6)
7. Shannon Murakami CA (9)
8. Kevyn Murphy CA (10)
9. Lauren Saylor CA (7)
10. Christine Babcock CA (HM)
FL West Race Breakdown:
A Big Three has developed in the West, I believe, and their names are not Webb, Ritz, and Hall, either. But few runners of either gender in the country have been tougher and more consistent than Marie Lawrence NV, Megan O’Reilly WA, and Jordan Hasay CA. Lawrence obviously has the long-term credentials, starting her prep career with two national runner-up finishes the last 2 years. O’Reilly and Hasay were injured and in eighth grade, respectively, last year.
But in 2005, especially in the last several weeks, each has been dominant race-in, race-out. O’Reilly has ruled Washington, concluding with her Border Clash win, while Hasay has been superior over not just her competition, but the other classes in her section and state competition on the watch. Her 17:11 5k last Saturday in Div. V was the fastest by nine ticks.
Still, I gotta believe in “Mel,” until proven otherwise, and figure that while the junior might not have quite the 19-second margin on the watch she had over Hasay at Mt. SAC, it will be close to that. Meanwhile, I see the senior O’Reilly not quite with Mel, but ahead of her young counterpart.
The next best runner in the region, CA’s Annie St. Geme, will be trying to lead her team to an NTN title in Portland, but the Golden State should still dominate the next five spots, though you can always count on a surprise or two.
Christine Babcock and Shannon Murakami have done the best job of moving up the ladder since Mt. SAC, Murakami taking Cali’s D1 in 17:43, and Babcock surpassing several standouts in taking second in D2 in 17:38. But ahead of Babcock was Kauren Tarver (17:36), the FL nationals returnee who’s been steady all year. So she’s still picked for fourth, and Murakami fifth, with Babcock seventh.
In-between, I like Kari Hardt, the Mt. SAC revelation, to move in for the sixth spot. She beat Murakami and Kevyn Murphy and trailed only Hasay in the Individual sweepstakes there. Overall, she was a tick ahead of Tarver on the watch and third behind Hasay and Lawrence. Since then, she had a fast region win, a not-quite-as-dominant state win, and skipped the Border War.
The final spot could certainly go to another Californian (Murphy, Katy Andrews, Lauren Saylor, etc.), or a surprise from another state, but I’m taking Lauren Ho of Hawaii, whom I overlooked until late season. She was 9th last year. Led by 1999 National Champ Victoria Chang, Hawaiian girls have done well coming to the mainland. Look for that tradition to continue.
Potential West Qualifiers at NTN:
The clear favorite to take the first of the two Foot Locker qualifying spots is Annie St. Geme, the California D3 champ and second best in the state overall. She’s improved and progressed all year and should be at the top of her game again Saturday in Portland, likely battling for first overall with Betsy Bies SD, Elizabeth Yetzer MN and others.
After that, I see a tough battle with Crystal Pitney AK, Dana Morgan ID, and Cassie Ricks UT for that remaining West spot, and while Pitney is probably favored on paper, I think Morgan is going to take it.
Nov 4 update
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Marie Lawrence NV (1)
2. Megan O’Reilly WA (5)
3. Jordan Hasay CA (6)
4. Kauren Tarver CA (2)
5. Anne St. Geme CA (3)
6. Kari Hardt AZ (HM)
7. Lauren Saylor CA (4)
8. Katy Andrews CA (NR)
9. Shannon Murakami CA (NR)
10. Kevyn Murphy CA (NR)
11. Cassie Ricks, UT (9)
12. Claire Michel OR (10)
13. Alex Kosinski CA (HM)
14. Samantha Gaffney UT (8)
15. Crystal Pitney AK (HM)
HM: Alma Escobar CA, Jennifer Macias OR, Irena Ossola NM, Tess Amer NM, Wendy Harris NV, Tara Erdman AZ, Bronwyn Crossman WA, Stephanie Sipes WA, Dana Morgan ID, Karleigh Gempler OR, Sheryl Page OR, Brooke Andrus MT, Anne Lovelace ID, Vanessa Ortiz NM, Crystal Harper UT, Lindsay Prescott AZ, Julie Brasher NM, Hilary McClendon ID, Brittney Morreale CA, Ellie Reed UT, Christina Babcock CA, Crystal Reed CA, Ashlen Nimmo WY, Emily Higgins WY, Karleigh Gempler ID, Katie Gilboy MT
Analysis:
We’ve talked on the national report about Megan O’Reilly and Jordan Hasay, and I think we all know why Marie Lawrence is on top.
The rest of the top 10 follows close to Mt. SAC order. I’d like to give runners from other states more hope, but what can you do with results like that? The big revelation to me was not the other Cali girls, though, but Kari Hardt from AZ.
Kari was 21st at FL West last year and I don’t think I had really noted anything she had done last year until her 17:01 at Mt. SAC screamed, “Rank me!” If I needed any more prodding, she clocked 16:57 for 3M at her region at Desert Mountain Park, winning by almost THREE MINUTES and probably terrifying all the snakes and gila monsters (let me know if that was a bad stereotype). I couldn’t quite put her ahead of Kauren Tarver and Annie St. Geme, with their experience, but she’s still up to sixth.
And with their nearly-as-great races at Mt. SAC, Katy Andrews, Shannon Murakami, and Kevyn Murphy moved way up. Of course, the “Road to State” in CA has just begun, and I suspect Lauren Saylor, Alex Kosinski, Christy Adamyk, and others will have much to add before it’s all said and done.
State meets in NM, NV, AZ, OR, and WA are all on the docket tomorrow and I admit I have much to learn about the talent opposing the Cali girls from those states (that is, in addition to Megan O., Marie L., and Kari H.).
Since the last rankings, however, we’ve seen state meets in UT, AK, ID, MT, and WY. The big news in UT was Cassie Ricks leading the day time-wise against Samantha Gaffney. Other top performers were Crystal Pitney (AK), Dana Morgan (ID), Katie Gilboy MT, and Ashlen Nimmo WY.
Initial Analysis
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Marie Lawrence NV
2. Kauren Tarver CA
3. Anne St. Geme CA
4. Lauren Saylor CA
5. Megan O’Reilly WA
6. Jordan Hasay CA
7. Christy Adamyk CA
8. Samantha Gaffney UT
9. Cassie Ricks, UT
10. Claire Michel OR
HM: Crystal Pitney AK, Alex Kosinski CA, Alma Escobar CA, Jennifer Macias OR, Tara Erdman AZ, Bronwyn Crossman WA, Stephanie Sipes WA, Dana Morgan ID, Karleigh Gempler OR, Sheryl Page OR, Brooke Andrus MT, Anne Lovelace ID, Vanessa Ortiz NM, Crystal Harper UT, Lindsay Prescott AZ, Kari Hardt AZ, Julie Brasher NM, Hilary McClendon ID, Brittney Morreale CA, Ellie Reed UT, Christina Babcock CA
Analysis:
It’s tough to get a break in this region. Just ask Samantha Gaffney, Alma Escobar and a few others who are among the top eight returnees in this region, and running well, yet still may get squeezed out. Not only are there four returning finalists, but 32 of the next 42 are back, too.
But what’s making it even more difficult are new stars that didn’t run last year. For example, Annie St. Geme was not at the line in December and Megan O’Reilly has been battling injury problems. Now the former, a 4:51-miler, was just crowned Orange County champ and also was second at Clovis. O’Reilly crushed the field at Jim Danner to win by about a minute. Then there’s freshman Jordan Hasay, who has already made good on the promise shown as an 8th-grader with high placings at major meets.
Escobar, meanwhile, is just coming back from an injury and ran her first meet last week. The other three to make it in 2004 are likely to return. Marie Lawrence has been her dominant self, with wins at Stanford and Clovis, and is favored to win Mt. SAC this weekend. Kauren Tarver has been winning, including Woodbridge, where she beat Lauren Saylor and Kevyn Murphy. Saylor, on the other hand, lost there and was fourth at Clovis, but won the D-1 Stanford race. Several other Californians, including Christy Adamyk, are strong contenders.
Some of the best bets among non-Californians to break in are Cassie Ricks, who has beaten Gaffney twice; Gaffney herself; and Claire Michel and Crystal Pitney, who were 1-2 last week at the Adidas Classic in Portland.
1. Marie Lawrence, 2007, West Reno H.S. Reno NV
2005 CC: 1st Stanford 17:26, 1st Clovis 17:19, 1st Elko 18:04
2005 Track: 1st U.S. Jr. 9:44.85 (3k), 2nd Golden West 4:48.32y
2004 CC: 2nd FLN 17:39, 1st FLW 17:56
2. Kauren Tarver, 2008, West Serrano H.S., Wrightwood CA
2005 CC: 1st Woodbridge (3M) 16:37
2005 Track: 4:54.33 2nd SS Masters
2004 CC: 16th FLN 18:28, 6th FLW 18:27
3. Anne St. Geme, 2006, Corona del Mar CA
2005 CC: 16:55 1st Orange Co. (3M), 2nd Clovis 17:24, 3rd Stanford (D1) 17:59
2005 Track: 3rd Golden West 4:51.00, 3rd Arcadia 4:55.19y, 1st State 4:50.40.
2004 CC: DNC FLW
4. Lauren Saylor, 2007, West Buchanan H.S., Clovis CA
2005 CC: 1st (D1) Stanford 17:38, 4th Clovis 18:05, 3rd Woodbridge 16:48 (3M)
2005 Track: 9:51.68 (3k) 2nd Stanford, 6th Arcadia 10:38.32y, 4:59.55 1st League
2004 CC: 14th FLN 18:27, 5th FLW 18:21
5. Megan O’Reilly, 2007, Mt. Spokane H.S., Colbert WA
2005 CC: 1st Jim Danner 17:12, 1st Mtn. West 17:21 (3M)
2005 Track: 10:48.27 3rd State
2004 CC: DNC FLW
6. Jordan Hasay, 2009, Mission Prep, San Luis Obispo CA
2005 CC: 17:36 1st Clovis (small schools), 18:01 1st Morro Bay
2005 Track: 9:35.12 6th JO Youth, 10:33.4y Lompoc Kiwanis, 4:28.61 1st JO Youth, 4:51.48 1st Cuesta Coll.
7. Christy Adamyk, 2007, Glendora HS, Claremont CA
2005 CC: 1st Bell Gardens 17:22 (3M), 1st Sierra 18:20, 4th Stanford 18:17
2005 Track: 10:36.89 2nd SS Masters, 10:52.77y 13th Arcadia
2004 CC: 12th FLW 18:57
8. Samantha Gaffney, 2006, Judge Memorial HS, Sandy UT
2005 CC: 2nd Driscoll 18:38, 1st Region 18:09, 1st BYU 19:29, 1st Murry 18:28
2005 Track: 8th Arcadia 10:39.79y
2004 CC: 14th FLW 19:01
9. Cassie Ricks, 2006, Fremont HS, UT
2005 CC: 1st Soda Springs 19:11, 1st region 18:15, 1st Orem Kiwanis 18:38, 1st Bulldog 19:22
2005 Track: 11:19.24 1st State
2004 CC: DNC FLW
10. Claire Michel, 2007, Clackamas H.S., Portland OR
2005 CC: 1st Adidas Classic 17:48
2005 Track: 10:07.39 1st State (3k)
2004 CC: 39th FLW 19:35
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