By Stephen (steveu) Underwood
DyeStat senior editor
At last, the research, the rankings, the analysis, the predictions, it’s all coming to an end. For almost 2 months, I’ve been hovered over my computer trying to hash this stuff out … and for what!? Saturday they will run the 27th Foot Locker Cross Country Finals here at Balboa Park in San Diego and it will all be settled. Some of the predictions will be right and a lot of them will be wrong. “That’s why they run the races,” as a lot of us like to say. And this race, as I will argue tomorrow, will be the toughest race these kids will ever run in and the hardest to predict for a surprising reason.
I’ve still got to write a final preview article and while the girls’ crystal ball has some clarity, the boys remains decidedly cloudy. In both fields, but to a greater extent the boys, there is not a clear favorite. Michael Eaton of Kentucky is unbeaten, and Sintayehu and Ayalew Taye have not lost to anyone but each other in Massachusetts. But save for their Foot Locker regionals, all three of those runners has not faced significant competition. Several others, mainly those who are making repeat trips here, all have question marks, whether it be a significant loss, the presence of injuries, illness, or fatigue, or simply a lack of being tested or uncertainty of peak fitness.
For the girls, no one truly has the unblemished record, either, but Jorday Hasay clearly had the most stunning performance at regionals and has to be considered the favorite, despite the lack of high school championship experience. Nicole Blood, Aislinn Ryan, Marie Lawrence, and Keara Sammons, on the other hand, bring plenty of championship experience to the table. At least three of them should be in the top 5-7, while a surprise or two is sure to sneak in. The race is very hard to predict after that, more so than the boys.
Foot Locker Boys Preview: Not In My House
The boys race is best approached by considering those who will seriously go for the win. I think there will be 10 or 11 contenders who are really going to go for it, who believe they can be national champ. They will be:
* AJ Acosta, Diego Mercado, Michael Coe, Kenny Klotz (and maybe Matthew Tebo) from the West,
* Michael Eaton and Jack Bolas from the South,
* Mohamud Ige and Landon Peacock (and maybe Brock Hagerman) from the Midwest,
* and Ayalew and Sintayehu Taye from the Northeast.
In the West, of course, the regional race settled little, but any of what is arguably California’s big three could wear the crown. All have question marks on their resumes, however.
AJ came into the season as the top returnee (9th last year) and will have the home course advantage. He and Diego have traded big wins, with AJ prevailing at the Stanford Invite (15:07-15:19 over Diego), and Diego returning the favor at the Mt. SAC Invite with what I’m calling the performance of the year (14:24 CR to AJ's 14:39). Neither has done much since late October to influence voters. Diego crashed (literally) and burned at state, while AJ was holding on with a chronic stitch problem for a slowish win. Last week at the West regional, both only raced hard for about a mile and a half. AJ won in the end, but proved little while doing so and still having the diaphragm problem.
Coe, meanwhile, hasn’t necessarily had any off races, but rather has surged through D3 and progressed to his best race of the year at state with a big fastest-of-the-day (15:04) win against Ben Sitler. He had plenty in the tank when the regional race turned into a fun run last week. But he hasn’t raced Diego or AJ in an all-out battle. Tebo said he felt horrible, but still had enough for a little kick for third at the end. If, however, he runs at the same level that he used in taking down a Shadrack Kiptoo course record in Albuquerque, watch out.
In the Midwest, Ige did the front-running thing again at region, but still ran probably his best race ever and kicked to win fairly easily. He still has to prove he can hang on with the big boys and survive a major mid-race move. That’s not to say the runner he beat, Peacock, isn’t getting to the highest level, but he doesn’t yet have national experience. Hagerman didn’t truly test himself at region or at the Mideast Champs where Peacock beat him. The question is if he can jump to the next level here, without national experience.
Eaton ran a fast time against a solid field in the South region, but Bolas was clearly not racing all out, Sandy Roberts was sick, and Justin Harbor was probably not at his highest level – all of which diminish things a bit. Speaking of Bolas, of course he and Kenny Klotz are coming off their NTN performances, where they finished second and first, respectively. Bolas, third at Great American, but then finishing the state season with a bang with those wins over Roberts, will be able to use his kick much more effectively than he could in the swamp Portland. Klotz, on the other hand, is as hot as any runner in the country with big wins at state, Border Clash and NTN.
That leaves us with the Northeast and the Tayes, who were completely untested until they got to Vanny two weeks ago. They passed that with flying colors. Both are obviously extremely talented and have fast track times, but haven’t run for a championship yet.
the bottom line
So how is the race really gonna go? Among the contenders there are different racing styles, various levels of fatigue coming in, those who are experienced here and in national track meets (and those who are not), and those niggling injuries or other issues we may not even be aware of. And again, there really is no clear favorite.
Look for Ige, Eaton, and probably Peacock to take it out strong. The California guys will probably be right with or behind them, while Klotz and Bolas will likely lay back a bit. The Tayes could go either way.
Diego and Kenny K. are likely to make the midrace moves and at that point the separations will occur. Will AJ, Eaton and Ige be able to stay with them at that point? Will the best kickers, seemingly Bolas and Coe, be able to hang?
As logical as this analysis has tried to be, in the end I’m going with a gut feeling. This is AJ’s house and he’s going to find a way to win. He has solid mid-race chops and a solid kick. He’ll use some combination of both to get it done. No runner in the field will be more motivated than him and he’s raced this course eight times (by his count) already.
I’m predicting the kicks of Coe and Bolas are going to get worn out. And Bolas, who’s had to cross the country twice (unless he stayed on) may just plain get worn out. Portland, of course, was in Klotz’s backyard, so he won’t be as affected, but I’m still going with Acosta and Mercado to beat him.
Boys top 20:
1. AJ Acosta CA
2. Diego Mercado CA
3. Kenny Klotz OR
4. Michael Coe CA
5. Jack Bolas NC
6. Sintayehu Taye MA
7. Michael Eaton KY
8. Mohamud Ige CO
9. Ayalew Taye MA
10. Danny Mercado CA
11. Landon Peacock MI
12. Matt Tebo NM
13. Ben Sitler CA
14. Brock Hagerman IN
15. Jeremy Stevens IL
16. Dan Roberts CO
17. Noah Shannon CO
18. Noah Bateman NY
19. Duncan Phillips TX
20. Ryan Craven IL
Foot Locker Girls Preview: A New Definition of Jordanesque
Compared to the boys race, I think there will be more like 6-8 girls who will really go for it here. That leaves plenty of space for others to find themselves close to the lead and for surprises to occur.
* Nicole Blood and Aislinn Ryan from the Northeast
* Jordan Hasay and Marie Lawrence from the West
* Keara Sammons and Betsy Bies, (and maybe Bria Wetsch and Elizabeth Yetzer) from the Midwest
Starting with the Northeast, I never would have thought early in the season that I’d be talking about Ryan as an underdog and Blood as a favorite at this point, but here we go. I’d almost written Blood off after what seemed like some slow times a few months back, but she really ran like a champ two weeks ago in the Northeast regional, and looks as good as ever. You have to give her a lot of credit for persevering from her days as a middle-school prodigy until now and she could do like Sara Bei a few years ago and save her best for last. On the other hand, I don’t really know why Ryan has looked slightly off last week and at her AA state meet two weeks before that, but we all know what she did here last year and it’s hard to bet against her again.
In the Midwest, Sammons, aka “The Closer,” was very impressive in taking her region at the end. She’s embraced being a champion and should be well-rested and ready to go. Bies, who led most of the race in Kenosha, may be more talented. But on top of lacking that great finish, she also may have that NTN/travel fatigue. Ironically, it was her former teammate Ramsey Kavan, and Sammons, who survived the double best last year, with most others Portland racers being off form in San Diego.
But then there’s the girls from the West, and Miss Hasay. Freshmen have done well here before (girls, not boys, that is), but it’s hard to make one a clear favorite. Jordan’s only misstep was going out too fast and crashing at Stanford, though, and she has improved every race. When she was finally able to step out of her easier D5 competition last week, she responded with a performance for the record books. She is dealing with the no-weeks-off racing schedule the Californians have had to deal with leading up to San Diego, but she was in the less-intense Division 3. I think she’s still fresh and hungry and will stay at peak form.
The bigger question will be how “Mel” will respond after last week. She ran 18 seconds faster at Mt. SAC than she did in ’04, but was soundly beaten. On the other hand, she also ran slower, comparatively, than her 16:29 at the Mt. SAC invite for 2.91 miles. She will probably have to run the fastest race of her life to win.
the bottom line
So how will the race go? I don’t think anyone will take it out excessively fast at the start, unless it’s someone who hasn’t raced at this level before like maybe a Nichole Jones, or a Kathy Kroeger. Look for Hasay, Lawrence, Bies, Blood, Ryan, Bria Wetsch, and Hanna Grinaker to be near the front before the mile, with Megan O’Reilly, Bridget Franek, Kate Niehaus, Annie St. Geme, Aurora Scott, and Caitlin Lane among those close behind.
I think Hasay and Blood will make the decisive mid-race moves and everyone will be hanging on for dear life at that point. Ryan will stay close, maybe making a bid, and Sammons will position herself for a strong finish. Some of the others above will hold their position, while others will die off.
In a sense, there will be some pretty high spots up for grabs at that point and it will depend on some girls doing what they do best to get those. Some will need to be daring and run out of their minds, while some more talented others will just need to be relaxed and let their race come to them.
Interesting will be the NTN factor for those who competed in Portland. I think it will be very tough for Bies and St. Geme to run up to their top level, especially Bies who has traveled so much. The Saratoga girls did not handle it well last year, but Ferguson and Davidson are both a year older and wiser. Upshaw and Walker did quite well at NTN and could surprise here by wiggling into the top ten.
I have to go with Hasay and Blood for the 1-2, with Mel third and Sammons catching several, but not quite being able to stay close enough to the leaders. Hasay won’t win as easily as Amber Trotter, whose 2001 Mt. SAC record she tied last week, but will be as impressive. Blood will close out her harrier career in fine fashion.
After Ryan and the determined Wetsch, who I think will hang in for fifth and sixth, it’s very hard to pick who will survive the best, but here goes:
Girls Top 20:
1. Jordan Hasay CA
2. Nicole Blood NY
3. Marie Lawrence NV
4. Keara Sammons CO
5. Aislinn Ryan NY
6. Bria Wetsch MN
7. Megan O’Reilly WA
8. Caitlin Lane NY
9. Betsy Bies SD
10. Kate Niehaus SC
11. Aurora Scott VA
12. Hanna Grinaker MN
13. Brooke Upshaw TX
14. Bridget Franek OH
15. Danielle Tauro NJ
16. Annie St. Geme CA
17. Kauren Tarver CA
18. Bona Jones FL
19. Elizabeth Yetzer MN
20. Crystal Reed CA
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