27th Foot Locker
cross country championships

the national individual championship
for US high school cross country runners.

National Finals
Dec 10, 2005 Balboa Park, San Diego CA


Rich Gonzalez preview
Favorites suffering unfavorably

"This is the most difficult race we've ever had to handicap. It's not quite parity; more like mystery."
Rich tabs seven leading title threats and four very dangerous underdogs:


By Rich Gonzalez
Editor, DyeStatCal

SAN DIEGO -- For the boys field at the 27th annual FootLocker Cross-Country Championships, the pre-qualifying favorites are hardly enjoying favored status.

Pennsylvania's Craig Miller? Collapsed lung.
North Carolina's Sandy Roberts? Mononucleosis.
Noth Carolina's Jack Bolas and Oregon's Kenny Klotz? Shredded legs.
California's A.J. Acosta? Nothing yet, but the way things are going of late, one can never be too careful.

Welcome to Balboa Park's Morley Field, the annual site for coronating the nation's top prep runners. Or to dub it another way for the bizarre 2005 chain of events, "Survival of the Healthiest -- Not Necessarily the Fittest".

Misfortunes and ailments aside, this year's edition of the FLCCC final is the most difficult we've ever had to handicap, with most of the favorites yet to go head-to-head while dominating their local and regional competitions in recent months, yet a majority of those arrive here fresh and undoubtedly primed for a sharp improvement peak. It's not quite parity; more like mystery.

Acosta at one point was the clear favorite. A gifted strength runner we tabbed 15 months ago as a future national champion -- we've had good luck with early forecasts over the years, tabbing Chris Solinsky and Mark Matusak as future national champs in xc and track more than 18 months ahead of time -- he'll be competing on virtually his home course before a vociferous phalanx of supporters. But fellow Southern Californian Diego Mercado knocked Acosta down to mortality with a head-on trumping while setting the Mt. SAC course record six weeks ago.

"(FootLocker National's) the tiebreaker," said Acosta. "It's for the biggest bragging rights."

Here's our view of the seven leading title threats and the four very dangerous underdogs:

The Prime Contenders:

A.J. Acosta, Sr., El Camino HS, Oceanside CA -- He has the strength. he has the home-course advantage. He has the crowd support. He has the confidence. He has the attitude. In short, what he really has is the pressure. If Acosta can keep a clear head and race intelligently, a fresh Bolas might be the only one I'd be willing to take against him if Bolas were completely fresh. Acosta has goat-like climbing abilities on the Balboa Park hills, meaning he should take full advantage of that gift to put the field away at both tries across the "Big Hill". The key to Acosta's race might very well be in believing in his race plan, then staying true to it when the chips are down and it's time to come through. If so, San Diego will have its hometown national champion.

Ayalew Taye, Jr., Cushing Academy, MA -- Oh how we wish that the Taye Bros. would have faced off more against high-end talent this Fall, giving all a better gauge at their true racing skills. For now, they are known more as stamina sensations who race well against the watch. To be a national champion, you must also race well against others, to break them down before beating them. If the Tayes are not race sharp, they shall be humbled. If they come focused and aggressive, we could see the first of three consecutive national crowns for the family.

Diego Mercado, Sr., West Covina HS, CA -- It was early in 2004 that we publicly declared the Mercado Twins (Diego and Danny) had "the best engines in the nation", with the most fit cardiovascular levels across the map, in our opinion. The only problem was the Mercados had a bad habit of throttling those engines too hard before warming them up properly in their race-day strategies. So it goes for a pair of Prefontaine groupies. It wasn't until Diego abandoned Prefontaine's breakneck style of racing pace at October's Mt. SAC Invitational that he realized smater pacing on certain courses will lend to unmatchable results -- and the course record! The Mercado's are still the most fit here. In order to win, they must race with the fron pack early -- not beat it. A long kick might be in order, but they must "cover" any moves by the leaders before then.

Mohamud Ige, Sr., Denver South HS, Littleton, CO -- Second at the Great American Cross-Country Festival, Ige is one of those brash racers able to adapt to most race-day needs and will be tough for anyone to shake this weekend. With personal track bests of 1:53 for 800m and 9:03 for 3200m, Ige obviously crosses the spectrum with racing tools at his disposal.

Kenny Klotz, Sr., Central Catholic HS, Portland, OR -- The Money Man! Klotz is gaining a knack for being a key late-season performer, with his back-half-of-the-pack finish here last year being his only blemish. Klotz ran smart to win the NTN race last weekend without expending unnecessary energy, and now focuses his efforts on breaking up the Who's Who field assembled at the top. Will attend the University of Oregon.

Michael Eaton, Sr., Greenwood HS, CO -- Eaton has conquered many of the tougher Kentucky courses this Fall -- quite hilly in thos parts! -- but his biggest challenge here should be in keeping composure while facing a talented field much deeper than he's used to seeing. Another strength runner, he might be better off letting other do the work early while keeping consistent contact, then shifting hard to see if others can keep up.

Jack Bolas, Sr., Chapel Hill HS, NC -- We're VERY HIGH on Bolas, and rate him as the strongest runner in the nation (with due respect to Craig Miller). Bolas was third to fellow North Carolina star Sandy Roberts and Mohamud Ige at Great American, but has improved since then to manhandle a weakened Roberts (battling mono) during successive in-state competitions and was an impressive second at last weekend's Nike Team Nationals, where he led his squad to a fine 12th-place finish. Bolas was the only lead-pack runner to hold up well after a quick start in the NTN race, but lost to a tactically sharper Klotz. With the right race plan, Bolas might be too tough to beat here.

The Underdogs:

Justin Harbor, Sr., Flagler Palm Coast HS, Bunnell, FL -- The big winner at the blockbuster Manhattan Invitational in New York in mid-November, the Floridian talent garnered a seventh-place finish at Great American three weeks prior. Harbor has occasionally had troubles in the biggest meets, including a last-place finish here a year ago. Under new coaching at school and with a bit of a different frame of mind as a senior, the U-of-Oregon-bound star is well equipped to leapfrog a host of returning All-Americans.

Sintayehu Taye, Soph., Cushing Academy, MA -- Much like his older sibling, the upside read on Sintayehu is difficult. Facing limited competition this Fall, his stock could finally receive a deserved boost this weekend. Sensational 4:09 speed as a frosh belies his amazing ability. Wouldn't it send shock waves across the country if the brothers could go 1-2 here as non-seniors???

Isaac Stoutenburgh, Sr., Crater HS, OR -- Running in Kenny Klotz's shadow for much of the year, the only prime difference between the two might be confidence. However, it should only be a matter of time before Stoutenburgh (14:38 on the track for 5k to place 5th at Junior Nationals and 3:53 for 1500m) has his spark become a firestorm. Might not be ready to win the race, but a top 4 finish would not surprise us.

Michael Coe, Sr., Cabrillo HS, Lompoc, CA -- Very dangerous. Coe has many ingredients playing in his favor, including a conservative racing schedule this Fall, fine strength, and excellent speed. We tabbed him as a gem in the making in 2003, only to have mystery illness zap him in 2004. He's back, and he's focused. The latest addition to the rising UC Berkeley program, Coe might very well be the most consistent among the five California stars and as consistent as Klotz among the West Coasters.

 

Foot Locker Finals index page

 


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