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 | Nike Outdoor Nationals
June 18-20, 2009 at Greensboro NC
DyeStat on-site coverage
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SteveU's Previews and Predictions - Girls
Distances - Sprints/Hurdles - Throws - Jumps - Distance Relays - Sprint Relays
Girls Distances
The Buzz: Solid, fueled by the star power and potential of Chelsey Sveinsson (2 Mile, 1 Mile) and Jillian Smith (800). Next to Jordan Hasay, Smith is one of the sport’s greats graduating after four great years. Sveinsson, as much as she’s done already, falls in the category of “next,” as she could be the dominant force in prep girls distance running the next two years. This is her first outdoor national championship meet and it will be fascinating to see how she handles it. There will be more quality runners in the 5000 than have been in any of the indoor or outdoor, boys or girls 5Ks yet.
What 2 Watch 4: There’s potential for fast times in all of the distance races, depending on heat and rain. The 5K should be a great battle between Foot Locker Finalists Shelby Greany NY, Chelsea Ley NJ, and Emily Sisson MO. It will be fascinating to see who takes charge early and if they decide to trade surges on each other.
Sveinsson, meanwhile, is going for the double and, at meets like Texas Relays, has proven she can do it. In the 2M, she should be used to the heat and, has the potential to get close to 10:00. On the other hand, she’s so adopted conservative strategies as a key to victory, she might not go out hard enough to really go for a great time. Though there’s been others faster than her this spring, look for Megan Goethals MI, with a stunning new 1600 PR last month, to finally really show what she can do at the deuce and have a good chance to run under 10:15 behind the Texan. The mile will be closer, but Sveinnson is just stronger and faster.
Defending champ Smith runs to win, but she will just be doing two events and will probably push a good enough first lap to give herself a chance at 2:03. There should be a fierce battle for the spots behind her, with up and comers like Emily Menges NY and Megan Patrignelli NY going after veterans like Charlene Lipsey NY and Becca Addison MI.
Record Possibilities: Depending how you figure it, it’s possible Sveinsson could get the national and meet 2M mark of 10:01.08 by Molly Huddle NY. Three others have run 3200 times that convert faster, but Huddle is #1 for a full deuce. The mile and 800 national and meet marks are likely out of reach, but it will be interesting to see if the 5000 girls can give Ashley Brasovan’s 16:18.91 from last year a push.
The Predictions:
800: 1. Smith, 2. Patrignelli, 3. Lipsey – Winning Time: 2:03.95
Mile: 1. Sveinsson, 2. Ajee’ Wilson NJ, 3. Emily Lipari NY – Winning Time: 4:42.50
2 Mile: 1. Sveinsson, 2. Goethals, 3. Emily Jones MA – Winning Time: 10:03.00
5000: 1. Greany, 2. Ley, 3. Sisson – Winning Time: 16:28.00
2K ST: 1. Janie Turek NY, 2. McKinzie Schulz IL, 3. Allison Stapleton NY – Winning Time: 6:57.00
Girls Sprints/Hurdles
The Buzz: Solid … The most attention is merited by the fields in the 100 and 200, thanks to the intriguing matchup between 2-time reigning double champ Chalonda Goodman GA and the blazing soph from Florida that’s made a huge splash this year – Octavious Freeman. Fans want to see if Freeman can do what Goodman did two years ago … but the difference will be that Goodman is ready. Ebony Eutsey FL has the possibility of leading a deep 400 field under 52.00, while California Kori Carter looks to sweep the hurdle races.
What 2 Watch 4: Goodman has led the US in the two short sprints since early April and she has shown the poise and maturity a senior should all year. Obviously, she knows how to win, too. Freeman is faster than Goodman was at her age, but one wonders if the sequence of the Golden South and Great Southwest doubles might have been a bit much for a soph. Freeman has a few wind-aided and nwi times in the 100 that surpass what Goodman has done, and her legal 200 is a very close #2 at this point. Allison Peter (St. Croix) and Kimberlyn Duncan TX give the 200 more depth at the top.
If Eutsey can push the sub-52 barrier, she could win big, but don’t expect NIN champ Briana Nelson SC to give up easily. Someone else to watch is Kellie Schueler OR, who has ridiculous range and is in the 100, 400, and 4x800. The 400 is probably her best event and she could be one of a handful battling in the 53s. The 400H is without US leader Amber Allen NJ, so it will likely be Carter and Ugonna Ndu NJ fighting it out in the 59.00 range. NIN 60H champ Jasmine Stowers SC will probably give Carter the toughest battle in the 110s, but Madalayne Smith NY is a fast rising star, too.
Record Possibilities: None of the national records are really within reach of this year’s groups in these events. The meet record in the 100 is just 11.39, though, shared by three girls, and both Goodman and Freeman could get that. This track hasn’t yielded real fast 100 times over the years, though. Eutsey has a shot at the meet 400 record of 52.04, set by Jessica Beard OH three years ago.
The Predictions:
100: 1. Goodman, 2. Freeman, 3. Peter – Winning Time: 11.35
200: 1. Goodman, 2. Freeman, 3. Duncan – Winning Time: 23.33
400: 1. Eutsey, 2. Nelson, 3. Schueler – Winning Time: 52.28
100H: 1. Carter, 2. Smith, 3. Stowers – Winning Time: 13.62
400H: 1. Ndu, 2. Carter, 3. Leah Nugent PA – Winning Time: 59.12
Girls Throws
The Buzz: Unfortunately, this set of events is missing the girl who would be by FAR the biggest buzz producer: Anna Jelmini, the new USR-holder in the discus and #2 all-time in the shot. Jelmini is staying west for USATF Jrs. next weekend, so her followers on the lists will fight it out for titles. There will be the intrigue of seeing fast-rising soph DT star Anna Collatz, also from the Golden State and who hit a 10th-grade US mark (177-00) in leading Jelmini at the CA state prelims (2nd in final). There is, however, strong record-setting potential from Lauren Chambers GA, who is just an inch off the US mark in the hammer. The shot and the jav should be the most competitive events.
What 2 Watch 4: It will be interesting to see if Collatz, whose next best meet is 164-03, can beat the best of the rest and challenge that big PR of hers. There are four others who’ve thrown in the 160s, led by Erin Pendleton OH. It will also be worthwhile watching all six throws from Chambers, who has been shooting for a US mark all winter (weight throw) and spring. With a new shot PR of 48-07.25, Chambers has a chance at a double … but you can bet that Emily Vannoy MD will be extremely motivated after fouling out of NIN. The jav features three of the top ten all-time in Hannah Carson CA, Fawn Miller PA, and Heather Bergmann KS – but none have matched their career best this year. Bergmann has come closest and that’s why she leads the 2009 list.
Record Possibilities: Obviously, the best bet is Chambers, whose 201-06 PR is an inch short of Maureen Griffin’s 11-year-old USR. Griffin holds the meet best of 187-10, as well. The USRs in the other throws are probably out of reach, especially the shot and disc, but the discus meet record is “just” 175-09, which is in Collatz territory. The jav MR of 168-04 is attainable, too.
The Predictions:
Shot Put: 1. Vannoy, 2. Chambers, 3. Jillian Rushin MO – Winning Mark: 48-06
Discus: 1. Collatz, 2. Pendleton, 3. Aslynn Halvorson NC – Winning Mark: 165-10
Hammer: 1. Chambers, 2. Patrice Gates GA, 3. Jazmin Miller GA – Winning Mark: 202-05
Javelin: 1. Bergmann, 2. Miller, 3. Carson – Winning Mark: 160-11
Girls Jumps
The Buzz: The reemergence of vaulter Shade Weygandt TX, with her 14-footer at Great Southwest, is the biggest story in this category. She has a great chance now at the 14-01.25 HSR by Tori Anthony from 2007. But each of the fields here is deep, with the majority of the outstanding performers this year. The PV has five 13-footers, for starters, and the high jump features seven between 5-09 and 6-00 – but no Toni Young, the new 6-04 leaper tied for the USR who is focusing on summer hoops. The long jump is very deep, led by NIN champ and US legal leader Brittany Porter GA, and the TJ is full of 40 footers, despite missing #1 and #2 (Californians Ciarra Brewer and Alitta Boyd).
What 2 Watch 4: It goes without saying that Weygandt in the PV is one to watch, as well as Ellie McCardwell IN, who has zoomed up into the mid-13s this year. The LJ is enriched by the fact of the geographic diversity between the likes of Andrea Geubelle WA, Jen Clayton NY, Tynita Butts VA, Brittany Porter GA, and A’Lexus Brannon TX. That’s probably the best of the jumps, depth-wise, with the NSIC (Butts) and NIN (Porter) champs finally getting a chance to meet. Brannon and Geubelle are the top athletes attempting LJ/TJ doubles.
The HJ features Shanay Briscoe TX, who made the Olympic Trials final last year and won Great Southwest, jumping 6-01.25. She’s had a quiet spring in terms of big meets, but has cleared 6-0 – enough to be the favorite, but not to shut down the hopes of others in the 5-10, 5-11 range, like Taylor Burke OH, Pearl Bickersteth and Tynita Butts VA, and Bria Rice MS.
Record Possibilities: Weygandt’s bid to get Anthony’s mark is the only realistic US record shot (the meet record is just 13-02.50). The other best chance at a meet record would be in the LJ (20-07.25), as the TJ, HJ are both well out there.
The Predictions:
High jump: 1. Butts, 2. Briscoe, 3. Burke – Winning Mark: 5-11
Pole Vault: 1. Weygandt, 2. McCardwell, 3. Sarah Birkmeier MI – Winning Mark: 14-02
Long Jump: 1. Porter, 2. Butts, 3. Geubelle – Winning Mark: 20-08
Triple Jump: 1. Geubelle, 2. Brannon, 3. Ashley Corum PA – Winning Mark: 42-01
Girls Sprint Relays
The Buzz: Mixed … Yes, you’ve got the perennial powerhouse that is the Blazin Raiders (Eleanor Roosevelt MD), which has won 20 Nike Indoor and Outdoor relay titles since NIN 2006. They’re US#1 in the 4x100 and 4x200 and US#2 in the 4x400. But unfortunately most of the top squads from CA, TX and OH are not out here to race them. In the 4x100, #11 Oak Ridge FL is the best upset candidate, while #7 Withrow OH is the only team within shouting range at 4x200. At 4x400, girls from US#1 Benjamin Cardozo are here, but not running a 4x400, leaving US#10 Miami Northwestern as the top challenger. Northwestern, though, should also be able to run a very good SMR, where they could go well under 4:00.
What 2 Watch 4: This year has seen the strength in Eleanor Roosevelt shift from 400/800 type girls to a balance of 100 through 400 types. They don’t have the great 4x800 this year, but their 4x100 is better than ever – paced by their 45.24 at Penn. Newcomer Aurieyall Scott has been the best reason for the shift, having emerged as the best dashwoman for them in the second half of the decade. Roosevelt doesn’t always run her on the anchor, but she always makes up ground, wherever she is. It’s been several weeks, since Penn and the end of the invitational season, since Roosevelt has racked up any really fast times, so it will be interesting to see if they can beat any of their #1s.
The 1600 SMR will be the other most interesting race. Without Roosevelt in the race this year, Miami Northwestern – led by 2:09 800 star Skyler Wallen, 55-second 400 girl Brittney Pringley, and hurdle/jump standout Brianna Rollins – has a great shot at a time in the mid-3:50s.
Record Possibilities: Roosevelt has a great chance this year at the 4x100 (45.47 by Alief Elsik TX in 2002) meet record, but the others (as well as USRs) are likely too far out there. The USR and MR for the 1600 SMR is the hefty 3:51.90 Roosevelt put up in 2007 – not likely to be touched.
The Predictions:
4x100: 1. Blazin Raiders, 2. Oak Ridge FL, 3. Withrow OH – Winning Time: 45.35
4x200: 1. Blazin Raiders, 2. Withrow OH, 3. Bethel VA – Winning Time: 1:37.25
4x400: 1. Blazin Raiders, 2. Miami Northwestern, 3. Bethel VA – Winning Time: 3:41.50
1600 SMR: 1. Miami Northwestern, 2. Pope John XXIII NJ, 3. Collins Hill GA – Winning Time: 3:56.30
800 SMR: 1. Walnut Hills, 2. Withrow OH, 3. Cougar Nation (Maplewood NJ) – Winning Time: 1:45.05
Girls Distance Relays
The Buzz: Not quite as strong as some years, maybe, but there’s a number of very good relay crews out there, and some competitive races at hand – likely topped by the 4x800 battle. That event includes NIN champ Hammer TC (Southern Regional NJ) with anchor Jillian Smith, which authored history’s #2 indoor time in Boston. At least three other teams have reasonable sub-9 aspirations. The 4x1 Mile will feature Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake NY going for its 3rd straight win, with likely pressure from NIN champ Newton Centre (Newton South MA) and at least 2-3 others. The DMR will feature almost all of the 4x1 Mile talent bouncing back, as well as Collins Hill GA and Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees NJ), which sport anchors like Amanda Winslow (4:44 1600) and Melanie Thompson (4:46).
What 2 Watch 4: Although they’ve run through a successful state series and Smith has come back from injuries, Southern Regional still hasn’t run this event since March, so it will be interesting to see if they can match that level or better. Thompson Valley CO (US#1 9:00.07 outdoors) is new to this level, while Adrenaline TC (Tatnall DE) is putting all its effort here despite being Penn Relays champs and US#1 in the DMR. The wild cards include Parkway Central MO, which is anchored by 5k champ Emily Sisson, and Kellie Schueler-led Summit OR. Schueler, a multiple state champ sprinter with crazy range, is said to have sub-2:05 potential in the 800, an event which she is just beginning to explore.
In the 4x1 mile, Burnt Hills has become the dominant national force, indoors and out, and with Sam Roecker leading three girls at 4:40 or better for 1500 they will be tough to beat. Newton South, though, has emerged with its terrific NIN performances (including 4x1 Mile win) and a strong outdoor season suggest they could shave at least several seconds off the 20:25 they ran in Boston. Kinetic RC (Saratoga NY) is beginning to mine young talent again and Keelin Hollowood’s 4:33 1500 this spring, combined with the veterans they have, shows they are ready to at least stay in the mix. In the DMR, Collins Hill has taken the talent they displayed in XC and have been growing as a relay power. With Winslow in her final prep race and plenty of talent with her, they are looking for a sub-11:40 time. If Hunterdon is close, Thompson will give Winslow a run for her money for sure.
Record Possibilities: It’s possible Southern Regional could make a run at the 8:51.60 meet record, but the incredible 8:43.12 USR from Eleanor Roosevelt is just too good. Given that they have three girls at 4:40 or better for 1500, Burnt Hills has a good chance to challenge the USR (19:56.75) or meet record (19:58.07) in the 4x1 Mile – while others in that race do, too, if they really put it together. The 11:31.81 DMR mark, set by Warwick Valley in their stunning win here last year, looks safe, but if the top anchors get the stick within range, watch out.
The Predictions:
4x800: 1. Southern Regional, 2. Tatnall, 3. Thompson Valley – Winning Time: 8:53.50
4x1 Mile: 1. Burnt Hills, 2. Newton South, 3. Kinetic RC (Saratoga NY) – Winning Time: 19:59.20
DMR: 1. Collins Hill, 2. Newton South, 3. Voorhees – Winning Time: 11:38.00
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