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 | Nike Outdoor Nationals
June 18-20, 2009 at Greensboro NC
DyeStat on-site coverage
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SteveU's Previews and Predictions - Boys
Sprints/Hurdles - Distances - Throws - Jumps - Distance Relays - Sprint Relays
Boys Sprints/Hurdles
The Buzz: The buzz is strong in the sprints and hurdles, definitely more so than last year. A number of events were affected by the USATF Juniors and NON being on the same weekend last year and several of the events in this category were among them.
This year, you have U.S. leaders in three of the five events – the 200 (Dentarius Locke FL), 400 (Tavaris Tate MS) and 400H (Jordan Rispress OH). In the 110H, you may not have legal leader Cameron LaCour, but you’ve got all-conditions leader (13.35w at GSW) Wayne Davis II – who of course is also the NIN champ and 60H/55H US record holder. Similarly, the 100 has all-conditions leader Prezel Hardy TX (10.08w). The 400H features not only Rispress, but new 300H US record setter Reggie Wyatt CA.
What 2 Watch 4: he potential is there for both fast times and a few sterling matchups, weather notwithstanding. With Hardy’s fast time at TX State, he has suddenly turned into the century man to beat, but Locke (10.31 nwi) should give him a great battle.
The other killer matchup is in the 400, where Tate and Clayton Parros NJ will hook up for the 3rd time this year. They turned in the US#1-2 times at Great Southwest two weeks ago and were 1-2 in the NIN 400 – separated by just .01. Parros was 2nd each time and surely is wondering if his time has come, while Tate is determined to hold on to #1.
With Davis having run a 13.56 into a 3.0 headwind at Golden West (on top of his windy GSW time), he’s starting to look as unbeatable as he did indoors and could make serious inroads on the all-time list if conditions are good. Wyatt, who ran 50.10 two years ago for 400H but hasn’t contested it this year, will seek to finally crush that PR and get his first Nike title.
Record Possibilities: Wyatt clearly has the best chance, though not having run the 400H this year and with a very tough record to shoot for – Ken Ferguson’s 49.38 from 2002 – it won’t be easy. The meet records of 10.14 and 20.76 in the 100 and 200 could get a good run from Hardy or Locke, but the USRs are probably out of reach. Same with the 400, as Tate and Parros could push past the meet mark of 45.38 by LaShawn Merritt, and the 110H, as Davis could chase down the 13.32 of Ricardo Moody. This track, though, has seemed to be begrudging on yielding fast dash times over the years.
The Predictions:
100: 1. Hardy, 2. Locke, 3. Hunter Furr NC – Winning Time: 10.22
200: 1. Locke, 2. Tate, 3. Blake Heriot OH – Winning Time: 20.79
400: 1. Tate, 2. Parros, 3. Andre Carter GA – Winning Time: 45.54
110H: 1. Davis, 2. Kendall Hayes TX, 3. Neaman Wise FL – Winning Time: 13.42
400H: 1. Wyatt, 2. Tim Carey NJ, 3. Rispress – Winning Time: 50.02
Boys Distances
The Buzz: In 2008, the buzz for the distances was off the charts, especially for the 2M as German Fernandez went for immortality (and got it). This year, the buzz is more dispersed, but still strong as most years. Part of the challenge is keeping up with who’s doing what and who will be fresh. The chess match in these races has been compounded by the special mile races held last weekend, adding to a crowded post-season schedule. The times should be solid across the board, with the 800 having the best chance of getting some all-time list entries.
What 2 Watch 4: Eight athletes running the mile between 4:02 and 4:10 last weekend, in two races 2000 miles apart, has partly served to dilute the NON mile this year; basically the top six milers in the country are all running other races in Greensboro. The 800 has become the wickedly deep and fast race, with five of the year’s top seven entered, including US#1 and indoor 800/1000 record-setter Robby Andrews. The thing to watch for is whether chronically hard starter Cas Loxsom CT pushes a sub-54 (or sub-53) pace and what kind of position Andrews can get in to unleash that kick. The kick didn’t work against Fleet in Portland over a mile, but 800 could be a different story. Tommy Brinn MI, Terrance Livingston NY, and new 4:05 miler Peter Callahan IL are also extremely dangerous.
Two wildcards in the 800 are amazing decathlete Curtis Beach, who placed in the NSIC 800 after his pentathlon win and is running only this event here (he is in the 3rd of 4 sections), and the ridiculously talented soph Elias Gedyon, who won the Arcadia mile but has not yet topped his 1:51.91 freshman 800 PR (he’s in fast section).
The deuce may not be as fast as last year (Fernandez USR) or the year before (Centrowitz 8:41), but hot weather notwithstanding, there should be some sub-8:50s. The idea of Midwest Distance Gala mile (Andrew Springer RI 4:02.70) and 2-mile (Lucas Verzbicas 8:53.98) winners and new national leaders meeting here is appealing, but the title could easily go to 8:51 3200 performers Trevor Dunbar AK, Jeff Thode IL, or Chris Schwartz CA. The mile is left with 4:07 standouts Patrick McGregor AL – who will be favored to finally win a big one – and Chris Stogsdill NY, as well as Alex Hatz NY (4:06 1600), Danny Neff OH (4:09.61y/1:50.02), and Michael Atchoo MI (4:07 1600). Not exactly chopped liver.
Finally, don’t forget about the 5000 and the steeplechase. After an up-and-down year that included an incredible unbeaten XC season with a Foot Locker title and an indoor NSIC championship double – but also last fall’s eligibility issues and this spring’s allergy problems – Solomon Haile MD is back to try and win his fourth overall national championship for 5k on the track. Despite losing to Verzbicas, he had a big 2M PR last weekend and could certainly go under 14:20. The steeple has several contenders, but should most likely come down to defending champ and US#1 (2k ST) Zach Ornelas TX and US#1 (3K ST) Michael Kiley NY.
Record Possibilities: Probably pretty slim on the national level. Andrews might be able to challenge Michael Granville’s 800 USR in a perfect racing situation, but he’s still more than two seconds away. The steeple is the only other one that could be challenged, but with so few hard, competitive efforts at the distance, it’s hard to peg.
Meet records are another story; Andrews and maybe a few others have a great chance to take down that 12-year-old mark by Moses Washington. Haile should crush the MR (14:38.23) he shares with Adam Vess. The steeple MR of 5:49.11 is reachable by at least Kiley and Ornelas.
The Predictions:
800: 1. Andrews, 2. Livingston, 3. Callahan – Winning Time: 1:48.20
Mile: 1. McGregor, 2. Neff, 3. Hatz – Winning Time: 4:06.20
2 Mile: 1. Springer, 2. Dunbar, 3. Verzbicas – Winning Time: 8:44.50
5000: 1. Haile, 2. Ornelas, 3. John Raneri CT – Winning Time: 14:18.50
2K ST: 1. Ornelas, 2. Kiley, 3. Connor Martin IN – Winning Time: 5:52.40
Boys Throws
The Buzz: Huge, of course, namely due to the historic clash of the 70-footers. As any serious fan should know by now, there have never been four 70-footers in a year, let alone competing in the same meet together. In this year of the thrower, however, that’s just the beginning. New USR-holder and defending champ Mason Finley CO heads up the discus field, along with being the 4th-ranked putter, and #3 all-time Justin Shirk PA is in the javelin, trying to see if he can retake the national lead from Sam Crouser OR (who is not in Greensboro). Only Crouser and hammer leader and USR-holder Conor McCullough are missing here among this year’s throwing all-time greats.
What 2 Watch 4: In handicapping the shot field, Nick Vena NJ has to stand out. Not only is he leading the pack now at 72-08, but he’s produced far more 70-footers than anyone else, especially in his MOC series June 3. He has six outdoor meets over 70 feet, compared to one each for the other key players. He also seems to be able to produce the big one when he needs it.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the 5th through 7th-ranked throwers have all throw further than 66 feet and if one or more of the titans has an off day, you can bet one of them will be going for a shot at the medal stand. Also … did you know all four 70-footers competed here last year, in their pre-70 days? Vena, Stephen Saenz TX, Hayden Baillio TX, and Finley were 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 12th, respectively, behind graduated winner Brandon Pounds IN.
In the other throws, Finley and Shirk are heavy favorites, but the hammer could be a close battle between Alec Faldermeyer NY and defending champ Michael Gama RI. Faldermeyer was just 6th last year, but has closed a gap of more than 20 feet on Gama to become US#2.
Record Possibilities: In the shot, Kevin DiGiorgio’s meet record (69-08.25) should go down, but Michael Carter’s USR of 81-03.50 is still a dream – one that Vena could achieve in the next two years. It will be really tough for Finley to break his 236-06 in the heavier air of Greensboro, but the meet record of 213-04 – belonging to Kevin DiGiorgio’s brother Glenn – should be replaced. A really good day from Shirk could bring him the meet (222-04) or US (241-11) records.
The Predictions:
Shot Put: 1. Vena, 2. Saenz, 3. Baillio – Winning Mark: 73-02
Discus: 1. Finley, 2. Dan Block IL, 3. Cameron Tabor OK – Winning Mark: 223-10
Javelin: 1. Shirk, 2. Brett Millar PA, 3. Devin Bogert TX – Winning Mark: 238-10
Hammer: 1. Faldermeyer, 2. Gama, 3. Robert Guider CT – Winning Mark: 227-08
Boys Jumps
The Buzz: Mixed … as far as the HJ and PV, you have a strong, deep field in one, with a matchup of two guys over 7-04, and a chance at a USR from Jack Whitt OK in the other. But the horizontal jumps are missing big names like Marquise Goodwin, Stephen Hill, Justin Hunter, Bryce Lamb, and Hammed Suleman.
What 2 Watch 4: When the bar gets to 7 feet in the high jump, watch to see how many of the 10 7-footers entered are still alive – or how many of the 9 others at 6-10 or better are PR-hunting. Beyond that, a potential skyscraping duel between NIN champ Erik Kynard OH (7-04.50 PR) and breakout US leader James White MO 7-05.75. Kynard has vast big meet experience, while White’s biggest previous meet has been the Kansas Relays, so it will be interesting to see how both handle the pressure. In the vault, there are three 17 footers, but by 17-06 or better, it’s likely to be all Whitt and the mark he’s sought all season: The USR.
Despite missing Goodwin and other 25-plus jumpers, the LJ field is still strong with new 25-00 performer James Taylor VA in the favorite’s role and five other 24-footers. The TJ has four 49-footers, with Ricardo Jacquite MA knocking at the door of 50 feet.
Record Possibilities: Whitt will have the best chance at a jumps USR, by far, as he’ll hope to finally get Tommy Skipper’s 18-03 from 2003. It would be a shock if he didn’t get the meet record of 17-03. The 7-04.50 meet record in the HJ (Paul Klemic, 2000) could get revised, but Andra Manson’s 7-07 should be safe. The horizontal marks are not likely to be challenged.
The Predictions:
Pole Vault: 1. Whitt, 2. Chase Cooper CO, 3. Sam Ewing AR – Winning Mark: 18-03.50
High Jump: 1. Kynard, 2. White, 3. Tanner Anderson NC – Winning Mark: 7-05
Long Jump: 1. Taylor, 2. Damar Forbes GA, 3. Neaman Wise FL – Winning Mark: 24-10.50
Triple Jump: 1. Jacquite, 2. Ken Roseman TX, 3. Rolston Braithwaite NJ – Winning Mark: 49-09.25
Boys Distance Relays
The Buzz: Despite the absence of the 4-headed monsters that were the Albemarle VA multiple record-setting 4x800 and NIN champ distance medley relays, the buzz is still huge for these races, probably bigger than anything except the boys shot put. Morris Hills NJ could still solo a pretty fast time in the 4x800, but the real barnburners will be the 4x1 Mile and the DMR. The former will feature a truly serious run at the hallowed 33-year-old USR of 17:06.6 by a field led by crews from NXN champ North Central WA and The Woodlands. The latter will feature perhaps the event’s deepest field ever, with the potential of the first race with more than two sub-10s. If you’re a serious distance fan, these races are must-see.
What 2 Watch 4: Friday’s 4x800, missing not only Albemarle, but also US#3 Central Bucks South PA, still has Morris Hills, history’s #2 squad after their epic 7:31.60 behind Albemarle at Penn. They could still attempt a near-solo effort to wrest the record away, but word on the street is that they will be more likely to run to win and make sure they’re reasonably fresh for the DMR, where they were NIN runner-ups and are nearly as good.
Saturday morning’s 4x1 mile, at the top, sets up to be a clash of an almost completely balanced North Spokane (North Central) team and a team from The Woodlands that features two stars. The spread between North Central’s fastest and slowest legs may only be 3-5 seconds, maybe 4:13-4:18. The Woodlands has two that can go 4:09-4:10, but their other two are in the 4:20 or higher range. Where will The Woodlands run their best two? Surely one will anchor, either Drew Butler or Reed Connor, but will the other lead off or be somewhere else? Connor and Butler also have to bounce back from the disappointment of their losses at state two weeks ago.
Finally, it boggles the mind to think how many sub-10s we could see in Saturday night’s DMR. Westerly RI and West Albemarle VA (not to be confused with Albemarle) have already gone 10:01. The Woodlands and North Spokane will be coming back from Saturday morning and are definitely sub-10 possibles. Morris Hills will be gunning for the mark, and so will Plainsboro TC (West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ), which was 3rd at NON and won the 4x1 mile in that meet in record time. The field and talent are ridiculous and, as is often the case, setting up the anchors and watching them run will be the key – and when the anchors include studs like Andrew Springer, Jeff Thode, Liam Tansey, Tyler Stutzman, and either Reed Connor or Drew Butler – well, you’ve got the makings of a race that will never be forgotten.
Record Possibilities: As good as Morris Hills is in the 4x800, they are said to be unlikely to chase the USR or meet record (7:32.89). North Spokane and The Woodlands are looking at 4:16+ per leg to get the USR for 4x1 Mile; the meet record of 17:18.33 should be toast even if the USR is not. As great as the DMR field is, the meet record and USR of 9:49.78 by Alan Webb-led South Lakes VA is a monster, monster mark and even these teams may not be up for that.
The Predictions:
4x800: 1. Morris Hills, 2. North Wales TC (Souderton Area PA), 3. Canton Glen Oak OH – Winning Time: 7:39.50
4x1 Mile: 1. North Spokane, 2. The Woodlands, 3. Don Bosco NJ – Winning Time: 17:09.50
DMR: 1. Morris Hills, 2. Westerly, 3. North Spokane – Winning Time: 9:52.30
Boys Sprint Relays
The Buzz: The guys from Track EC/New Bern NC have commanded the buzz for much of the year with their record-chasing relays indoors and out, led by the senior Hendrix twins and junior Fuquawn Greene. Since destroying the 1600 SMR mark in the early outdoor season, the chase has become more difficult for several reasons, with hopes for closing ground on the outdoor 4x400 mark (a lofty 3:07.40 by Hawthorne CA in 1985) continually frustrated. Still, they come to Greensboro the top dog in the 4x200, 4x400, and both SMRs. As is the case for Eleanor Roosevelt MD’s girls, few of the teams that could challenge them are here – with a few exceptions.
What 2 Watch 4: The most interesting challenge for Track EC might be the 800 SMR, a race they haven’t run and gives Daishawn Styron, a 100/200 specialist, a larger role. Matched against US#1 Alexander GA, which includes sub-47 standout Andre Carter, this should be one of the most competitive of the short relays. Also watch for Weaver CT, with 46.35 400 man Daundre Barnaby on the anchor. The 1600 SMR, on the other hand, is Track EC’s best relay, playing to their 200-800 range and strengths. Their 3:19.58 USR is almost eight seconds ahead of the US#2. Look for the 800 split, however, of Buffalo MN anchor Zach Mellon, who ran 1:48.64 for the distance from scratch last year and has hit 1:50.99 this year.
In the 4x400, Track EC has nearly a 3-second edge on the field, but Altoona Area PA with phenom Bradley Gehret could make things interesting. With Track EC not quite as strong in the 4x200, a trio of 1:26 types, led by Kroy TC (York IL) at 1:26.06, has a chance to make a difference. The 4x100 lacks any of the 10 schools that have broken 41:00 this year, but Ben Davis IN at 41.17 from their state meet just two weeks ago, leads what should be a competitive battle. They will no doubt get a still challenge from the defending champs from Sheepshead Bay NY.
Record Possibilities: The USRs and meet records in the 4x1, 4x2, and 4x4 are well out of reach for these groups, even Track EC – unless it finds the formula for getting to sub-3:10 (meet record: 3:09.91). But Track EC could, of course, challenge its own USR in the 1600 SMR, and might even have a shot to go for the 1:28.43 national record in the 800 SMR by Long Beach Poly CA.
The Predictions:
4x100: 1. Sheepshead Bay NY, 2. Ben Davis IN, 3. Altoona Area PA – Winning Time: 41.25
4x200: 1. Track EC, 2. Kroy TC, 3. KP Athletics (East Kentwood MI) – Winning Time: 1:25.85
4x400: 1. Track EC, 2. Altoona Area PA, 3. Glenside TC (Abington PA) – Winning Time: 3:11.90
1600 SMR: 1. Track EC, 2. Buffalo MN, Western Branch VA – Winning Time: 3:20.50
800 SMR: 1. Alexander GA, 2. Track EC, 3. Weaver CT – Winning Time: 1:30.10
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