Girls Championship Preview
Saturday, November 10th, 2007 @ Willow Hills (Folsom)
by Joe Hartman
DIVISION 1 – 11:05 AM
Defending Champion: Davis, 23-51 over Folsom
Last year’s winner: Laurynne Chetelat, Davis
2007 Team prediction: Davis and Folsom may have only been separated
by 1 point at Frogtown but with Jonah Weeks running this Saturday,
the scoring gap should be sizeable. In a repeat of 2006, Davis
and Folsom will both qualify for state with Modesto missing by
one spot for the fifth year in a row. And speaking of streaks,
they’ll score more than the 23 they had last year, but the
Blue Devils will win the section title for the sixth year in a
row.
The drama is actually outside the qualification zone here: it will be quite close
for spots 3 though 6. We should see some improved running out of three D1 girls
in particular: Sam Reardon should be a bigger factor for Beyer, Sophia Villalobos
will be faster for Grace Davis, and Allison Motor should be even more fit for
Galt now that she has her ’07 debut under her belt at subs. In a close
contest we’ll pick Modesto for 3rd and Grace Davis for 4th.
Individual Champion: She has some worthy challengers led by 2005 section champion
Maria Malone, but this race is Laurynne Chetelat’s to lose. Malone is doing
some of her best running ever, but Chetelat beat her own time by 45 seconds at
Mt. SAC this year and by 90 seconds at Frogtown. She looks to be the first D1
repeat champion since Rachel Bryan won three in a row between 2001 and 2003.
Last year Laurynne was 10th at state and wants inside the tent again.
Individual Qualifiers: Shouldn’t be any problem getting five qualifiers
out of this division but the projected cut looks like a lofty 9th place overall
to make it to state (since we’re thinking Malone, Chetelat, Weeks, and
Maddie Hall could all be top eight).
The two most solid choices for a state qualifying berth are MMC champ Crystal
Esparza (Beyer) and Tri-City League champ Sarah Rico (West). They should contend
for third place. If Lauren Peterson (Galt) and Sable Browning (Merced) do what
they are capable of, that’s two more spots that are gone - which leaves
six runners fighting it out for the fifth and final spot. Those girls are: MMC
runner-up Amanda Innes of Grace Davis, Tri-City runner-up Holly Rankin of Tokay,
Delta River 4th Breanna Lewis of Sheldon, MMC 4th Katie Drueen of Modesto and
two dark horses. That was not the real Sophia Villalobos at Frogtown …she
must be considered a threat as is Samantha Reardon of Beyer who was 19:10 at
Mt. SAC. Both Villalobos and Reardon were top five in the MMC.
Division 1 Girls Predicted Final Scores
1. Davis Sr. - 39 – Section Champion
2. Folsom - 67 – Qualify for State
3. Modesto - 112
4. Grace Davis - 120
5. Beyer - 121
6. Galt - 124
7. Nevada Union - 143
8. Rodriguez – 183
DIVISION 2 – 12:00 PM
Defending Champion: Ponderosa, 64-76 over St. Francis
Last year’s winner: Alex Kosinski, Oak Ridge (now at Oregon)
2007 Team prediction: Following last week’s leisurely Tour
De Frogtown by Ponderosa, which looked a little bit like a July
cruise toward the Champs d'Elysee, the Bruins will have to up their
cadence a little at Willow Hill. But not much. Ponderosa’s
section titles have progressed from shocking upset in 2005 to a
narrow win in a pick ‘em contest in 2006, to clear favorites
in 2007. Credit some of that to improvement from #5 Sara Orofino
and a good safety net in #6 Dani Sarge. But two that don’t
get enough credit are Sammi Diaz and Kelly Roberts who are not
merely Deborah Maier’s wing men, but top SJS runners in their
own right.
It’s been an up and down path for Woodcreek to get to this point, but
the SFL champs are looking strong at the right time and appear to be a safe
bet to qualify. Alex Ciaraglia has moved into the top five, Courtney Crosta
remains on heels of Granite Bay star Brooke Holt, and Jaime Brooks and Ashley
Buckner continue to deliver. Fast-improving Ashley DeVriend is right there
in case any of the top five falter.
Holy Troub-a-rauder! Could this be the year that neither St. Francis or Jesuit
qualifies for the state meet? At both the SVC champs and at subsections, the
young Oak Ridge girls look like they’re mature enough to handle this
type of competition and might shut St. Francis out of their 9th straight trip
to Fresno. Samantha Ralstin and Brittney Putman are running like madmen out
there and there’s no reason not to expect fine races from them Saturday
on a course they’re quite familiar with. Melissa McLaughlin or Audra
Sawyer need to come up huge as a five.
St. Francis was 43 points behind Oak Ridge at subs, but with the Bolce twins
expected to run somewhat faster than the conversational pace we observed Saturday,
the gap should close dramatically making this battle one of the meet’s
highlights. It’s going to come down to some key 1-v-1 showdowns: Nicole
Mendoza (SF) vs. Hayley Scott (OR), Sarah Bolce (SF) vs. Putman and Ralstin
(OR), Katie Bolce (SF) vs. Geneve Dromensk (OR) , and Maggie Lloyd (SF) vs.
the Trojan #5 and 6 runners.
With the top four spots decided, Granite Bay seems to have the edge over SFL
counterparts Roseville and Rocklin for 5th place with Buhach Colony representing
the south.
Individual Champion: This division has only had two champions this entire decade
so far: Caitlin Chock the first four years and Alex Koskinski the last three.
But now it’s time for one ‘Maier’. Deborah is going to have
to ‘earn it’ as D2 is by far the strongest division in the SJS.
But she had just enough of a summer following her March stress fracture to
turn this season into something special.
In case things don’t go according to plan, the next four are Hayley Scott,
Nicole Mendoza (4th last year), Danzel Bradshaw (5th last year), and one of
the best runners south of the SJS Mason-Dixon line, Stephany Uriostegui. What
a treat it would be if Scott and Bradshaw ended up side-by-side with about
400m to go. Scott was the 4th seed in the 800m SJS Masters finals last spring;
Bradshaw took 3rd and made it to state.
Individual Qualifiers: Three qualifiers look like cinches under any scenario:
Bradshaw, Uriostegui, and Holt (the leader for SJS freshman of the year). After
that, it depends if St. Francis or Oak Ridge advances as a team. Most ‘individuals’ will
be pulling for St. Francis because if St. Francis makes state, the next 2 qualifiers
will likely be Hayley Scott and an open spot for a host of quality contenders.
If Oak Ridge makes state, the next 2 qualifiers could both go to St. Francis:
Nicole Mendoza and #2 Meghan Enabnit, who has beaten Mendoza on occasion.
Other contenders to consider for a state invite are Catherine Crisp of Roseville
(a bit inconsistent but possesses some high quality ’07 results), Sarah
Tusting of Benicia (who survived a nasty, but healed, blister on Saturday),
Kristine Lozoya of Oakmont (who missed 5 weeks), Candace Wray of Rocklin (solid
every time out), and Lindsey Dubs (2nd at MEL league, but very lightly raced
so far). And then you also have to include Putman, Ralstin, and Sarah Bolce
in there - depending on team fall-out.
As we’ve said, we’d gladly take the top five individuals who DON’T
make state out of D2 and go into battle at Woodward Park versus almost any
team at state (OK, not Saugus) - but the point is that this group is pretty
strong. D2 had more girls under 20:15 at Frogtown than the other 4 divisions
combined.
Division 2 Girls Predicted Final Scores
1. Ponderosa - 47 – Section Champion
2. Woodcreek - 62 – Qualify for State
3. Oak Ridge – 81 – Qualify for State
4. St. Francis - 82
5. Granite Bay - 121
6. Roseville - 143
7. Rocklin - 160
8. Buhach Colony – 178
DIVISION 3 – 1:00 PM
Defending Champion: Placer, 42-48 over Del Oro
Last year’s winner: Jenni Eiremo, El Camino (now at Iona
College)
2007 Team prediction: Like D2, the drama at the top isn’t
quite as thick this year compared to last year. Woodcreek declawed
the Golden Eagles at SFL champs, but Del Oro rebounded nicely from
that and were hitting on all seven cylinders at Frogtown. They
look hard to beat. But in this sport you never know. Placer always
seems to have some extra pop at the end of the season, but it’s
hard to beat a team that can put five in the top ten, like Del
Oro did Saturday.
Using an unusual blend of three freshman and three seniors, Del Oro has some
awfully high aspirations under coach Kevin Ostenberg and all his #1 (and #2)
fans. Freshmen Emma Freeman and Megan Atkins arrived on campus at the right
time while Samantha Racine stepped her game up from last year (about 25 seconds
faster at SFL finals). Merie Paddeck was 5th on her team, yet 10th in the division.
Brianna Atkins has saved most of her better races for the end of the season
and could join some excellent company Saturday when she bids for a top five
section finish all four years of her career. The only others on that list this
decade are Caitlin Chock, Alex Kosinski, Amanda Moreno, and Cecily Lemmon.
Placer’s Caty O’Connor had a big race at leagues and has the potential
to be even lower than her 11th last week. Sierra White and even Shannon Harcus
might be able to move up a few spots. The team battle between Placer and Del
Oro is pretty close through the first four runners, but the Eagles win it after
that. Nevertheless Kirby Riecks is doing a fine job for the Hillgals as a freshman.
Union Mine actually has a little more depth than Placer and it just doesn’t
seem like they’ll be challenged for the third and final state berth,
even with El Camino’s Kelly Renfroe possibly moving up ten spots from
Saturday - like she could. D-Back freshman Sierra Davis and senior Allie Jones
were #2 and #3 for UMHS on Saturday.
There is some good southland representation in D3 with Sonora and St. Mary’s
offering the best teams they’ve had in a few years. And after providing
a lot of excitement earlier in the decade, it’s nice to see the Woodland
Wolves back at section finals. Sonora is led by Heather Peterson, St. Mary’s
by Brittani Texeira, and Woodland by Madison Bencomo.
Individual Champion: Fasten your seat belts for this one. Samantha Dougherty
(5th last year) is going to be right in this race. She’s very consistent
and just won’t let the leaders get too far away. She won the Bronco Invite
small school race 4 weeks ago in a field that included Jordan Burke. Dougherty
will leave it all on the course like she normally does.
But the D3 individual crown might be coming down to a head-to-head with Jordan
Burke and Hillary Kigar. Saturday was fun, but they each had something left
after that race. Jordan was 5th as a sophomore, 4th as a junior, and with another
race like Saturday, the Pioneer league champ could go out on top.
We saw heartbreak, courage, and glory all rolled into one last year when Hillary
Kigar -dehydrated from illness – collapsed and crawled across the finish
line on hands and knees to claim the final state qualifying spot in D3 last
year. At last check, Hillary reported fine health and intends to finish this
race shiny side up, so we should be in for a real treat between Dougherty,
Burke and Kigar in a race they all badly want. Shannon Harcus, Brianna Atkins,
Emma Freeman and Samantha Racine will be in high speed pursuit.
Individual Qualifiers: El Camino should provide two of the individuals, Hillary
Kigar and another fast freshman Kelli Bercier. It’s also there for the
taking for Theresa Sianez of East Union and Erin Sanders of Pioneer. Kelly
Renfroe of El Camino is very talented (5:05 1600m) and - all thing equal -
could claim the fifth spot, but injuries have held her back and one of the
two Sonora girls - Heather Peterson or Kimberlee Turner - might be next in
line, if they can finish 14th or higher.
Division 3 Girls Predicted Final Scores
1. Del Oro – 39 – Section Champion
2. Placer - 54 – Qualify for State
3. Union Mine – 75 – Qualify for State
4. El Camino - 105
5. Sonora – 128
6. St. Mary’s - 159
7. Woodland - 172
8. East Union – 177
DIVISION 4 - 2:00 PM
Defending Champion: Bret Harte, 38-46 over Colfax
Last year’s winner: Maritza Garcia, Riverbank (now at Nevada-Reno)
2007 Team prediction: The only SJS girls team that made it inside
the tent last year in Fresno was Bret Harte (3rd at state in D4)
and this team is strong enough to make another run. And why not?
The only teams this decade to win SJS D4 are Riverbank and Bret
Harte. Ranked #1 earlier in the year state-wide, the Bullfrogs
slipped off their lillypad a little in the 93 degree heat of Mt.
SAC. But on Saturday they looked invinceable on their home course.
Sara Mikesell and Katie O’Connor are a terrific 1-2 punch.
But it’s the arrival and recent performances of sophomore
Dana DeCoste and freshman Haley Heryford that makes the team a
real threat at Woodward Park on November 24th. Both girls were
top ten at Frogtown and should be huge in Folsom - and then at
Fresno.
Welcome back Bear River! There is no evidence of Bear River running at subsections
the two previous years, so all they do is drive down to Angel’s Camp
and take 2nd at the subsection meet by a comfortable margin. Crazy. Denise
Julian, Saerla and Harla Moe, Jennifer and Jessica Marso don’t have a
whole lot of playoff experience, but they’re making that look a little
overrated putting four in the top 14 with a 1-5 gap of 1:00. It looks like
the race is for third.
Christian Brothers, Escalon, and Riverbank were only separated by ten points
at Frogtown. Escalon has hopes for third. It’s going to take a total
team effort by the Cougars to erase the 16 point subsection deficit but if
Faryn Bolls and Khrista Delucchi can score in the teens and Escalon’s
4 and 5 just run about 15 seconds faster and get in the mid-20’s for
placing, that will help. Sophomore Pearl Rivers leads Escalon. Riverbank only
had one girl in the top 20 at Frogtown, but then they all poured in within
48 seconds. Junior Gemma McHugh leads Riverbank with Tayler Anderson close
behind. For Christian Brothers, Coco Evashenk is almost a different person
this year and she’s been absolutely huge supporting Kelly McEnerney and
Katie Holst toward the front. If Erica Havey runs this week, CB should safely
qualify. If not, it will be really close.
Individual Champion: This should be another good one. In September, back-to-back
D5 Section champ Lauren Jimison got the news that she was now in Division 4.
Fortunately, she had already put in a solid summer and felt it was still possible
to qualify for the state meet. She’s going to do that, and them some.
Lauren won the Subsection race at Frogtown with a whopping 1:45 PR. A repeat
performance would give her three straight section titles. The only others on
that brief list are Caitlin Chock, Alex Kosinski, Rachel Bryan, and Amanda
Moreno.
Sara Mikesell and Katie O’Connor of Bret Harte will be two of Lauren’s
main competitors. They’ve taken turns being Bret Harte’s #1 and
the hills at Willow Hill will intimidate neither of them. It will be interesting
to see Katie O’Connor’s strategy this week and see if she goes
out hard again off the gun, or chooses a different moment. Two other runners
that cannot be ignored are last year’s divisional and state runner-up
Sara Howard of Colfax and Kelly McEnerney of Christian Brothers who finished
ahead of Mikesell and O’Connor at the Bret Harte small school race. We
believe the D4 champ will come from one of these five girls.
Individual Qualifiers: It looks like the individual qualifiers will come from
five different schools: sr. Lauren Jimison of Capital Chr, soph. Sara Howard
of Colfax, jr. Olivia Mickle of Loretto, soph. Emily Cook of Calaveras, and
soph. Pearl Rivers of Escalon. Mickle would be the first runner out of Loretto
to make the state meet in quite a while.
Division 4 Girls Predicted Final Scores
1. Bret Harte – 34 – Section Champion
2. Bear River – 70 – Qualify for State
3. Christian Brothers – 93 – Qualify for State
4. Escalon - 115
5. Riverbank - 119
6. Colfax - 140
7. Calaveras - 163
8. Loretto – 182
DIVISION 5 - 2:00 PM
Defending Champion: Big Valley Christian, 30-41 over Capital Christian
Last year’s winner: Lauren Jimison, Capital Christian (now
in Division 4)
Team prediction: You can’t stop Jim Eliot Christian; you
can only hope to contain them.
Individual Champion: Megan Crutchfield (Jim Eliot Chr.), Deanna
Cunningham (Big Valley Chr.), and Annalise Bacchi (Victory Chr.)
will vie for individual honors.
SJS Girls Rankings
Rank – School – Division
1. Ponderosa – D2
2. Davis – D1
3. Woodcreek – D2
4. Del Oro – D3
5. Folsom – D1
6. Oak Ridge – D2
7. St. Francis – D2
8. Placer – D3
9. Bret Harte – D4
10. Union Mine – D3
11. Granite Bay – D2
12. Roseville – D2
13. Modesto – D1
14. Grace Davis – D1
15. Rocklin – D2
16. Beyer – D1
17. Galt – D1
18. Buhach Colony – D2
19. El Camino – D3
20. Sonora – D3
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