2006 CALIFORNIA BOYS/GIRLS STATE MEET
CROSS-COUNTRY PREDICTIONS
By Mike Kennedy (girls) and Rich Gonzalez (boys)

Division I Boys, By Rich Gonzalez
         It's not being held at high noon, but this showdown should be. When leading teams take to the line for the Division I boys final, they will represent a large part of why California might be in the midst of its best season ever, with nationally ranked squads from Royal (#5), Trabuco Hills (#13), Jesuit (#17) and Davis (#19) leading the way. Then there's El Toro, which has defeated Davis all three times they've met this year, and Madera, which owns wins over both El Toro and Davis. The well of team talent is very deep here. A healthy Royal team could end up performing this weekend as the best in state history while the remaining five teams all appear very close to each other based on recent championship outings.
         We'll start with Royal, a team unbeaten against Golden State competition this fall and courting the individual favorite in two-time 3200m track champ Michael Cybulski. With Cybulski as Southern Section champ (and a seasonal-best of 14:45 at Mt. SC this year) leading the way, the Highlanders have shown they can stick all remaining scorers within 35-40 seconds of Cybulski when all are in the lineup. But health is a factor right now, as #3 man Daniel Benson has been sidelined by a hip injury. His presence at 100% this weekend puts Royal close to a minute faster than without him, with the state course team time record within reach is he is a go. Senior Hudson Andrews, who enjoyed his best race ever to place a close second to Cybulski at the SS Finals, and Jun Reichl have also been hot of late.
          Trabuco Hills, which has dazzled in runner-up showings to Royal at Woodbridge and Mt. SAC and won at the Bob Firman Invitational, is a clear challenge to Royal, as it has a lead quartet that could rival the Highlander foursome on their best days. Senior J.T. Sullivan and younger brother Riley have been steady and solid all year, with Coach Liam Clemons assuring that #3 man Scott Blair (#4 last week) is very fit and ready after a recent injury to his posterior region. When on, the trio can rival any in the nation. The Mustangs have improved at the #4 position as well, with Chris Mosier developing to make the crew a definite national-class power. The key with Trabuco Hills could be Blair. When he was off by 20 seconds last week, it was enough to allow a very deep division to close right in on their heels. El Toro, which ran sensational to place fourth (behind Ferris and Mead of Washington and Royal) at the Stanford Invitational, has been on another tear of late, including a stunnnig 13-second scoring gap in finishing just eight points behind Royal at the Southern Section Final. The Chargers, led by Anthony Masci and Chris MacDonald, are runnnig their best right now and a little slight improvement in time for their tight pack could spell the title.
         Madera, enjoying its best season in school history, showed very well at Mt. SAC Invitaitonal in placing third to Royal and Trabuco Hills while beating several fine programs. The Coyotes, paced by Isai Orea and Rocky Richardson, also took an impressive third to Royal and Jesuit at the Clovis Invitational. Davis, which was a very pleasant surprise in taking seventh at the talent-stocked Stanford Invitational -- it actually tied eventual NTN qualifier La Salle of Ohio, but lost on a sixth-runner tiebreaker -- then came on very well to win the Sac-Joaquin Section Division I Final in record time. Be careful not to get too caught up in team-time comparisons with Davis, as frontrunner Brendan Gregg (who beat a superb field to be the individual winner at Stanford) gives the Blue Devils an edge on the watch. In fact, Davis beat both El Toro and Jesuit by team time at Stanford (and was within five seconds of Mead), but lost to all three on points in that race. Davis is getting hot again right now and has its chance to prove itself in the biggest race of the year. Thus far, Davis has a misleading 1-10 record against the state's top five teams (all divisions) since September 30th. Once again, here's their golden chance to address that.
         Individually, Royal's Michael Cybulski and Davis' Brendan Gregg should be among the main combatants, along with Trabuco Hills' J.T. Sullivan and the Knight Twins from La Sierra. Gregg won their head-on encounter at Stanford, with Cybulski returning the favor at both Clovis and Mt. SAC. Sullivan, the Orange County champion, has been close to Cybulski, and the Knights Twins have been hovering aroudn the state's top names as well. Bonita Vista's Eric Avila has been tearing it up in the San Diego area. Keep an eye on Alisal's Diego Estrada. We're very high on him and expect he will be a household name next year as a senior.

Division I Girls, By Mike Kennedy
         It couldn’t get much closer. If anyone says they KNOW who is going to win the State Division I team title, they should stay away from Las Vegas. For most of the season, Buchanan (Clovis), Saugus and Torrey Pines (San Diego) have been almost inseparable. Early on, at the Stanford Invitational, while Division III Corona del Mar (Newport Beach) was winning the Sweepstakes race by 70 points and three minutes, Torrey Pines defeated Buchanan for second, 150 to 166, with a 31-second advantage. Three weeks later, in the Mt. San Antonio College Sweepstakes race, Saugus was the winner with 100 points followed by Torrey Pines and Buchanan, each with 103. Last week in Section finals, Saugus was the Southern Section champion with just 54 points in a 16-team field, Torrey Pines took the title in the San Diego Section with 45 points in a 22-team field and Buchanan dominated the Central Section with just 18 points.
         Saugus and Buchanan are similar in that both squads are led by outstanding individuals. Saugus is paced by defending State individual champion Shannon Murakami while Buchanan is led by Lauren Saylor. In the Mt. SAC sweepstakes race, Saylor was second and Murakami was third. In that race Saugus had a 133-second 1-5 gap and Buchanan had a148-second gap. On the other hand, Torrey Pines relies on much closer grouping as evidenced by their 66-second gap at Mt. SAC. Torrey Pines also seems to be evolving a little bit more than the other two teams. At Stanford the Torrey Pines gap was just 19 seconds.
         There is another similarity among the three teams. Last year, all three made the State meet and return nearly complete teams. In addition all three teams have added at least one quality individual. Buchanan was second at State with 136 points and a time of 95:53 and returned all seven runners. Freshman Chelsea Janzen has joined the team this season and been a consistent 2-3 runner. Torrey Pines was fourth with 163 points and a time of 96:41 and returned its top six. New to the team this year is freshman Megan Morgan, who is usually its No. 1 or 2 finisher. Saugus was sixth with 167 points and a time of 96:52 and lost just its No. 3 runner. Freshman Amber Murakami, Shannon’s sister, has joined the top seven this season as a solid No. 3.
          Despite the credentials of these three teams, a number of schools are just looking for an opportunity to move up. Fountain Valley was second to Saugus in the Southern Section finals and rarely is out of the top five in big invitationals. Davis won the Sac-Joaquin Section title was just 23 points and were only 17 points behind Buchanan at Stanford. The big surprise for Davis has been the emergence of junior Laurynne Chetelat, a former soccer player, who has now become its No. 1 runner. If former No. 1 Chelsea Reilly regains her midseason form and can run with Chetelat, the “Big Blue” could move up.
         Southern Section teams Crescenta Valley (La Crescenta), Esperanza (Anaheim), Murrieta Valley (Murrieta), San Clemente and Royal (Simi Valley) have all been close at one time or another this season and any one of them is capable of placing in the Top 10. Carlmont (Belmont), one of the strongest 1-4 teams in the state, won the Central Coast Section title with 46 points and while probably not a top three team could surprise. College Park (Pleasant Hill) won the North Coast Section title with 55 points and also could surprise.

Division II Boys, by Rich Gonzalez
        Once heavily favored Jesuit might face a stiff challenge after all. The Maruaders have reportedly have a few key scorers banged up now and will need to have everyone run well at state to secure a ninth title, otherwise area foe Oak Ridge -- which came on very well during the last six weeks of the season -- will be among those capable of pullnig the upset.
        Jesuit, ranked nationally all season long, placed 5th in the talent-stacked Stanford Invitational, cranked it up another notch to run even better and place second at the Clovis Invitational, then puleld up two strong performances in subsequent local competitions. Seniors Evan Watchempino and Phil McKennan have been money for the Marauders, with the latter also winning the individual section crown over Oak Ridge's Ryan Cosens in a late-race surge. Jesuit's added strength is superb depth... perhaps the best in the state, as it spills talent beyond its top 7. Oak Ridge, which also has Josh Arrieta starring up front, has been handily beaten by Jesuit on several occasions, but also drew close in one late-season encounter. Los Gatos has been very strong in CCS action throughout the season, but endured setback at the big Stanford Invitational. Regardless, all signs point to a strong finish and being well capable of passing Oak Ridge if Matt Petrillo and Co. all come through. Woodcreek was the late-season surprise from the SJS, finishing super close to Oak Ridge in their local affair.
          A super fine trio of teams should also contend for podium space, with Victor Bonilla-led St. John Bosco being very, very consistent in the latter half of the season, Clovis enjoying a sensational 1-2 punch with Mikel Thomas and Jonathan Peterson, and Peteluma looking ultra-scary with twins Sterling and Devin Lockert and Brandon Felipe leading. Petaluma, the NCS champion over a somewhat surprising Eureka crew, could actually be a very dangerous underdog, with its tight scoring pack being a force during their best efforts of late. Should that pack improve just a few seconds, it will mean a major improvement in points!
         Individually, the Clovis tandem of race-favorite Mikel Thomas and teammate Jonathan Peterson, the Jesuit duo of Phil McKennan and Evan Watchempino, and the San Diego presence of frontrunners Muluken Beressa and Travis Kuhlman will battle Torrance's Kent Morikawa and several others in the front pack. This is Thomas' home course and he's been very strong throughout the year, so he gets the nod.


1. Jesuit, Carmichael (Sac-Joaquin)
2. Oak Ridge, El Dorado Hills (Sac-Joaquin)
3. Los Gatos (Central Coast)
4. Woodcreek (Sac-Joaquin)
5. St. John Bosco, Bellflower (Southern)
6. Clovis (Central)
7. Petaluma (North Coast)
8. Brea Olinda, Brea (Southern)
9. Eureka (North Coast)
10. De La Salle, Concord (North Coast)

Division II Girls, by Mike Kennedy
          As the saying goes “You can run (and it certainly seems that Carondelet of Concord can run) but (in the end) you can’t hide.” Usually it is not too tough to get a rough idea of how well teams are running and how they would stack up against one another, especially late in the season. However, when a team, in the case the talented squad from Carondelet chooses not to run at the Stanford, Clovis and Mt. San Antonio Invitationals, it makes comparisons a little more difficult. Fortunately, for those of us who care about such things, Carondelet did choose to go to the Jim Danner Invitational in Oregon (Oct. 7), where Saugus, a Southern Section Division I team, was also entered. Saugus won the race with 81 points and Carondelet was third with 122. The difference in time was just over one minute. Conclusion: Carondelet was within one minute of the second best team in the State regardless of division. Six weeks later in the Section finals last week, both Carondelet and Saugus won their divisions. While it is difficult to draw conclusions when you are comparing performances on different courses, the following information on the two teams indicates that the two teams would be very competitive.

         Here is a comparison between Saugus and Carondelet at Danner Invitational and at their section final:

Carondelet at Danner            Carondelet at NCS Finals
S. Murakami (Sau) 17:43        17:23 (Taylor, Casa Grande)
Hood 17:57                             17:53
Hauser 18:45                           17:59
Aliotti 18:54                            18:29
Cerney 19:06                          18:17
---------
Rumore 19:53                         19:47
Mulligan 20:20                        19:15
Chavez 20:25                         19:09

Saugus at Danner Saugus at SS Finals
S. Murakami 17:43                17:11 (Tarver, Serrano, won in 17:11)
A. Murakami 18:28               18:25
Jaurequi 18:44                       18:45
Dunn 18:46                            18:03
-------------
Kahavec 19:38                       19:55
Molt 19:48                             19:10
Vaziri 20:19

         The key thing to look at is the gap between The No. 1 runner and the No. 4 runners. At Danner the gap for Saugus was 63 seconds and for Carondelet it was 69 seconds. At the section finals the gap between Saugus’ No. 1 and No. 4 is 94 second while the gap for Carondelet is 36 seconds. In fact the top four runners for Carondelet would finish in front of Saugus’ No. 2. Even if you assume that Carondelet’s No. 1 runner Nicole Hood “let off” in the section final the gap between Jacque Taylor’s winning time of 17:23 (which except for Carondelet was the only time of the day under 18 minutes), and Carondelet’s No. 4 is 66 seconds which is still inside of the 69 second gap between Saugus’ No. 1 and No. 2. at the section finals. If you compare the individual Section winners, Taylor and Murakami, both ran 17:37 at Mt. San Antonio Invitational the third week in October. As for the No. 5 runners at the section finals, Carondelet’s No. 5 was 45 seconds behind its No. 4 and Saugus’ No. 5 was 25 seconds behind its No. 4.
         Although Carondelet has made a great late season push the race is far from a “walkover”. Ayala (Chino Hills) has had a great season. The senior-laden Bulldogs led by Grace Gonzales and Briana Cahn, won the Southern Section title with 97 points followed by Newport Harbor (Newport Beach) at 115. Last year Newport Harbor finished second and it returns six of it top seven runners led by Taylor Bryson. The Southern Section teams should get a great battle from the champions of the Central Section, the Sac-Joaquin Section and the Central Coast Section. Clovis, which was fourth last year and has six of seven back, scored just 16 points and ran 96:21 in winning the Central Section title. Los Gatos, who finished second at Stanford Invitational in Division II, set a Central Coast Section finals Toro Park course record time of 96:01. Ponderosa (Shingle Springs), the third place finisher at Stanford, used four sophomores and a freshman to make a late charge to capture the San-Joaquin Section title. San Diego Section champion, University City (San Diego), with individual winner Sarah Vitug leading the way, is looking to improve on its 8th place finish in 2005. Four schools that should definitely contend for a top 10 finish are Brea Olinda (Brea), Edison (Huntington Beach), St. Francis (Sacramento) and Gunn (Palo Alto).

Division III Boys, By Rich Gonzalez
        Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh my!
        This division has shaped itself into a dandy, with a clear team favorite, then a whopping SEVEN more teams that we are projecting within 34 points of each other to battle it out for the runner-up spot, including the final team plaque (which goes to third place) that we have as coming down to a 6th-runner tiebreaker. Ooooh my ... times two!   :-)
        Barstow, the defending state champions from the Southern Section, easily pieced together its best showing of the year last weekend as Coach Jim Duarte's latest contingent flew through the Mt. SAC course in a fine seasonal-best 79:30 effort which saw it overwhelm runner-up Santa Margarita and third-place Palos Verdes (both with the same score) by an impressive 60 points! That's saying a great deal about the victorious Aztecs considering Santa Margarita is loaded with  proven track talent and has a fine tradition in XC while Palos Verdes won divisional titles at both Stanford and Mt. SAC this year! Barstow, which has laid low and donned the trainers all year, finally went for it at sectionals as Carlos Perez (15:34), Anthony Solis (15:42) and Isaac Chavez (15:42) all posted swift Top-10 finishes. Even with the excellent front-running, Barstow still managed a fine 45-second scoring gap as well, leaving little chance for the opposition to make up ground.
        Assuming Barstow keep its rhythm going, they are the clear favorite by 50-plus points! Then the real battle begins...
        St. Ignatius of San Francisco relied on excellent depth to offset the phenomenal 1-2 punch provided by Willow Glen frontrunners Mohamed Abdalla and Marcos Corona in winning the Central Coast Section Finals. St. Ignatius keys off Matt Snyder, Greg Innes and Sean Reavey to get the ball rolling and has a 75-second scoring gap behind a projected all-state performer, with a key 30-second gap among its top three. Willow Glen has a great pair, but then gaps a minute to its next runner, and an average of another 30 seconds to its final two scorers, which is when other teams can really creat havoc.
        Santa Margarita, Palos Verdes, St. Ignatius and Willow Glen all project within 10 points, with Santa Margarita (led by senior Mark Hirschboeck) being very balanced and effective at all scoring positions. Palos Verdes, paced by Southern Section winner Fawad Khan and teammate runner-up Andrew Ratley, has answered the call at all major races this fall, with this weekend being their biggest appointment on the calendar. Right behind are the trio of North Coast Section teams, led by champion Maria Carrillo. The Pumas are very close to the aforementioned quartet of teams in position for the runner-up plaque, with the team seemingly developing a frontrunner in surprising Calvin Thigpen, who was second to Las Lomas' Greg Drosky at sectionals. Maria Carrillo topped runner-up Acalanes by only six points, with third-placer Campolindo just another six points back! Nate Beach and Joey Thomas are the reliable bookends for the powerful Acalanes lineup while seniors Joey Kochlacs and Chris Harland-Dunaway headline a "Campo" group that is now coming on very well come championship time! In the "race-within-the-race", the SS, NCS and CCS battles are so tight that the outcomes could easily reverse themselves from the previous week!
         We're taking St. Ignatius (talent, depth, tradition, experience) to nab second, with Santa Margarita pulling a mild upset to capture third. Keep in mind, however, that another four teams should be very close behind!
         Abdalla and Corona project as the top two runners in the race, which the tandem crossing the line in the same time at the Central Coast Section Finals at Toro Park. Palos Verdes' Fawad Khan and Andrew Ratley, with the latter closing in ever closer to his high-profile teammate, should be right there as well along with Valley Center's Alex Avilez, Barstow's Carlos Perez and Las Lomas' Greg Drosky.

Division III Girls, By Mike Kennedy
        Defending champion Corona del Mar (Newport Harbor) and runner-up Oak Park were the top two qualifiers from the Southern Section and evidence points to the same two teams finishing one-two this year. Corona del Mar, despite losing Anne St. Geme to Stanford, has its next six runners back and has had impressive wins at the Stanford Invitational and the Orange County Championships.  Two weeks ago the Sea Kings and ran and outstanding 91:08 in the section prelims at Mt. San Antonio College before “resting” to a win in the section finals. Senior Sarah Cummings, has comfortably settled into the No. 1 spot followed (at least in the big meets) by junior Shelby Buckley, junior Allison Damon, senior Hilary May, junior Alison Gushue and senior Christie St. Geme. Sophomore Laura Bilder has not run the last two weeks but prior to that she was usually in the top five.
        Oak Park also lost its top runner from last year when Courtney Lightfoot was not able to recover from a summertime injury. Senior Breanne Strenkowski, junior Marissa Diehl and freshman Melissa Skiba ran as one in the prelims and if junior Kirsten Jackson and sophomore Julie Kopstein were to close the gap to the top three, the Eagles could challenge the Sea Kings.  
         In the Sac-Joaquin Section finals at Folsom, Placer (Auburn), after an off-year in 2005, won the team title with 42 points followed by Del Oro (Loomis) with 48. The Hillgals were led by freshman Shannon Harcus, who ran 19:49 in finishing second. The next three Placer runners were inside of one minute of Harcus, but the Hillgals' No. 5 was another minute behind. Another close finish came in the North Coast Section Finals at Hayward, where Campolindo (Moraga) edged Maria Carrillo (Santa Rosa), 57 to 69. Junior Laurie Finnegan of Campolindo was the champion running 18:21.
It is interesting to note that all six of the above teams were at Stanford. Corona del Mar won the Sweepstakes race in 91:45. The other five schools were all in the Division III race: Oak Park, 98:21, Placer, 98:18, Maria Carrillo 98:51, Campolindo, 100:28 and Del Oro, 1:00.53.
        San Diego was yet another section with a very close finish. Our Lady of Peace (San Diego) was the winner with 50 points followed by La Jolla at 55 and Valley Center at 58. In the Southern Section, there was almost a five minute gap between second place Oak Park, at 95:15, and the next five teams. Any one of those teams -- Irvine at 99:48, Bolsa Grande (Garden Grove) at 99:51, Yucca Valley at 100:20, Laguna Hills at 100:28 and Rim of the World (Lake Arrowhead) at 100:52 -- are capable of cracking the Top 10.

Division IV Boys, by Rich Gonzalez
         While All-American candidate Chad Hall gets most of the ink, it'll be his teammates that are responsible for delivering the state championship. While Hall's amazing season (a course record 14:00 at Woodbridge and two sub-14:50 efforts at Mt. SAC) is the level of fitness that spells an individual title (and one point in the team-scoring tallies), Big Bear also boasts what project to be the fastest #2, #3 and #4 runners from any team in the field, with its #5, #6 and #7 runners at least as good as any other in the field too! If you're expecting domination, however, it likely. Laguna Beach is just too good. The beachside crew, which was beaten by Big Bear by a 43-78 count last weekend, projects to have the next-best #3, #4 and #5 runners in the field and isn't too shabby up front either. What this means is Big Bear's two frontrunners -- Hall and Alberto Solis -- will need to avoid bad days in setting the table for its superior depth. Otherwise, a Laguna Beach squad led by senior Jeremy Eaton and known for peaking well will spell problems.
         Riverbank, which has enjoyed the recent return of defending state individual champ German Fernandez from injury, is much improved over the last four weeks, with its 85:41 effort at the Mt. SAC Invitational (achieved in warmer weather than the Division IV Sweesptakes race) a very misleading indicator of how well it can perform now. St. Mary's College has one of the division's finer individual talents in junior Matt Duffy up front, a very solid #2 in Rob Riccardi, then three runners all figuring to be slightly ahead of the middle of the pack. That combination spells an excellent chance to get on the podium!
         Morro Bay, another well-coached program known for a nice performance "pop" come championship time, defeated Division III power Cabrillo at its league final, then took third at the Southern Section finals, well ahead of its next pursuers. The Pirates had all five scorers within a half a minute at sectionals, a very dangerous nucleus if it can improve a few seconds more to drop its team score down in bunches! If we have any team underestimated, it might end up being McFarland. We're not so sure, though. Thus far, a closer look at their top performances seems to indicate we have them properly placed. The crew ran in the mid-85s at Mt. SAC and then improved to the low 86-minute range at its section finals at Woodward Park. They are a fairly tight bunch, but may lack the frontrunner to do serious damage against the top teams.
          Individually, the showdown between Hall and Fernandez at the 2005 state meet never really materialized, with the graceful Fernandez gaining a good lead by midrace and then putting the hurt on. Fernandez missed the track season and much of this year's cross-country campaign due to injuries, but still has the tools to remain a respected threat. Matt Duffy from St. Mary's in Berkeley looked very impressive in his mid-season Stanford win and we consider him to be an excellent big-race performer as well. Erick Garcia of Parlier is a seasoned performer competing on a course very familiar to him while Nordhoff's Brandon Shirck has to be rated as one of the finer developers in our sport over the last eight months.

Division IV Girls, by Mike Kennedy
         Last year, Marlborough (Los Angeles) finished sixth in the state Division IV final and with its top six runners returning, figured to be among the contenders in 2006. After the first month of the season, things did not look quite so promising. But during the last month the Mustangs have really turned on the afterburners, culminating with a win in the Southern Section finals at Mt. San Antonio College in the outstanding team time of 95:43. Marlborough was paced by the 1-2 finish from 800-meter specialist senior Kate Grace (55.74/2:10.31), who finished 13th last year, and sensational freshman Danielle Van de Sande.
         Combining all five divisions, the Mustangs posted the seventh fastest time of the day and were more than six minutes faster than runner-up Maranantha (Pasadena). A month earlier at the Mt. SAC Invitational, the two teams met with Marlborough prevailing but by less than one minute, 101:59 to 102:37. Carmel, with senior Thea and sophomore Annasphoie Lee leading the way, won the Division IV race at the Stanford Invitational at 101:12, defeating eventual section champions, Bret Harte (Angels Camp), Marlborough and West Valley (Cottonwood) and then went on to win the Central Coast Section final with just 38 points and a time of 98:30.
         Sorting out the remaining teams is a little bit dicier. Maranantha used a 70-second five-runner gap to edge La Reina (Thousand Oaks) for third in the Southern Section. North Section champion Bret Harte, which is led by Brooke Lawrence, could well contend for a trophy but it will probably need to see Chelsea Flores, who finished fifth in the section final, return to her Stanford form, where she finished a close fourth to her top three teammates. West Valley’s Michelle Johnson, who finished sixth as a freshman last year, should move up this year and if the next four finishers can get within two minutes of her, the team should do well.
        Harbor (Santa Cruz), which finished eighth in Division III last year, and Valley Christian (San Jose), were separated by just one point in the Central Coast Section finals behind Carmel. North Coast Section champion Piedmont, with five of its top six back from a team that finished 11 last year, could well crack the Top 10. Half Moon Bay, which finished third last year and returned five of its top seven, and Laguna Beach, which finished 12th and returned its entire team, are both capable of finishing in the Top 10. Defending champion San Lorenzo Valley (Felton) moved to Division III this year but did not qualify as a team.

Division V Boys, by Rich Gonzalez
        If this were a dual meet, you could declare Woodcrest Christian as the winner right now. But in a larger field of competitors, the coronation goes to the deepest team, rather than the fastest frontrunners. That may very well be why College Prep of Oakland is now moving into the favorite's role. Fresh off an excellent 37-second spread in winning the North Coast Section Finals, College Prep has fine frontrunners (with its top three being forecast among the first 10 team scorers and top 20 runners overall) coupled with seemingly the best depth in the division. Woodcrest Christian is loaded up front, with Kody Peterson, Jake Jeanson and David Branch being perhaps the first three team scorers into the finish chute this weekend. However, College Prep, with Jamie Lawrence and Matt Katz leading, should have its entire scoring quintet in ahead of WC's #4 runner, with the CP #6 and #7 capable of turning the trick as well.
       University of San Francisco, which finished just 14 points behind College Prep at the NCS Finals, has senior Mark Friese leading a deep squad that could also put the hurt on teams, with all five scorers projected to be in the 17-minute range or faster at states.Flintridge Prep has the edge over Mt. Shasta in our projections for fourth, with the young Rebels from the Southern Section doing surprisingly well behind sophomores Paul Weitekamp and Navjit Dullet. Mt. Shasta, which took third at the Mt. SAC Invitational (behind Woodcrest Christian and Flintridge Prep, with neither College Prep nor University in attendance), is led by siblings Cory and Kale Coppin.
         Individually, this race is tough to call. Brent Handa and Robbie Knorr are excellent individuals with plenty or racing experience. Handa had the lead on Knorr late into their Stanford Invitational clash, but a costly lapse of concentration saw Handa veer off the race path and follow a misguided meet management golf cart rather than the one being used as the pace cart for the leaders. Knorr wheeled into the lead and Handa did not have enough time to respond in settlnig for second. At Mt. SAC three weeks later, Handa ran nine seconds faster than Knorr in a separate race, with Handa running in a faster field and Knorr winning his heat. Woodcrest Christian's Kody Peterson owns a 15:33 PR on the Mt. SAC course and should be third on paper, but Oakwood's Aric Van Halen will continue being more dangerous as he learns better racing strategy and St. Helena's Brian Cole (4:16.86 for 1600m in track) could be another darkhorse threat if he is able to shake off some season-long inconsistencies.

Division V Girls, by Mike Kennedy
        What was shaping up to be a great team title battle between defending state champion Mt. Shasta (Shasta) and Woodcrest Christian (Riverside) came to a premature end when Woodcrest Christian freshman sensation Breean Collier encored a broken bone in her foot. She, along with her twin sister Amber Collier, had been leading the Lightning for the entire season. At the Mt. San Antonio Invitational, Mt. Shasta prevailed, 43-50, with senior Katie Fritzke winning in 19:00 followed by the Collier twin, both at 19:12. Chadwick (Palos Verdes Estates) was third with 75 points followed by Flintridge Prep (La Canada Flintridge) at 136, Sage Hill (Newport Beach) at 140 and Ontario Christian at 168.
         With the section results in, Mt. Shasta of the North Section ranks as a slight favorite over Southern Section champion Chadwick and runner-up Woodcrest Christian. Both Mt. Shasta and Chadwick, with the latter finishing third last year, returned their top seven. Fighting for the remaining positions should be North Coast Section champion Crystal Springs Uplands (Hillsborough), Central Coast Section champion Castilleja (Palo Alto), Central Section champion Mission College Prep (San Luis Obispo) and Southern section teams, Flintridge Prep and Sage Hill. King’s Academy (Sunnyvale) University (San Francisco) and St. Margaret’s (San Juan Capistrano) are also a threat to crack the top 10.
          Individually, defending national Foot Locker champion Jordan Hasay of Mission College Prep is a lock to repeat as champion but don’t look for a fast time from the sophomore as she has made it a practice of not ‘showing her cards’ this season until she has been pressed, which has not happened so far, and does not figure to happen here. Junior Alesandra Roger of Marin Academy (Kentfield), sophomore Elizabeth Apgar of Calvary Christian (San Diego), senior Hagen Atkins of Durham, Amber Collier, Fritzke, and senior Andrea Imhof of University (San Francisco), will be looking to stay within one minute or so of Hasay and finish in the top five.