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Sac-Joaquin Section
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SJS Girls Preview
11/8/05 Last Saturday was a beautiful day for racing, but Frogtown is behind us, and the SJS Section Meet returns to Friday competition at the ‘thrill-a-week’ Willow Hill cross country course adjacent to the campus of Folsom High School. The Top 8 teams in each division and the top individuals vie for berths at the CIF State Meet on November 26th at Woodward Park in Fresno. For the girls, Division 1 and 5 can qualify two teams to state; Divisions 2, 3, and 4 can qualify three teams. The five top individuals (whose teams don’t qualify for state) also get entry to Fresno, provided they finish within the Top 12 in their race. Although history shows anything can happen in cross country, there’s not as much mystery as normal over who the qualifying teams will be for the state meet on the girls side. But the battle for section champion among those teams will be the source of high drama on Veteran’s Day. Over the season, four favorites have emerged in each of the top four divisions, but are there chinks in the armor? Incumbents Davis (D1), Vacaville (D2), St. Francis (D3), and Riverbank (D4) are all facing serious challenges to oust them from office. Fairfield is hounding Davis, while Ponderosa and Oak Ridge will try to break up Vacaville in the D2 race. Surprises abounded at Frogtown in D3 and D4 with the #5 team in the state, St Francis, falling to Union Mine in Division 3 by 8 points, 41-49 and Escalon shocking the #1 team in state, Riverbank, by a count of 56-62. Could lightning strike twice? We’ll try to break it down below. Individually, race fans will be treated to Alex Kosinski (FootLocker contender, 4th at state XC in 2004) going for her 2nd consecutive D2 title, a great battle unfolding in Division 1, and two super sophs waging war in Division 3. But the highest drama surrounds the Division 4 race. Only twice in Section history has any girl won the section cross country title all four years: Jen Schindler of Ponderosa from 1993-1996 and Caitlin Chock of Granite Bay from 2000-2003. Senior Amanda Moreno of Escalon (2003 Div 4 XC State Champion and 2005 2nd place State 3200m in track) will try to become the third girl, but she will face the most difficult challenge of her cross country career. League foe (and valley neighbor) Maritza Garcia of Riverbank is stride for stride with Moreno and has actually won the last two encounters: TVL league finals and subsections at Frogtown (by just 5 seconds). Garcia was 8th in the state last year in Division 4. Right now, Garcia and Moreno are the top two runners in the state in Division 4. This race between these two fine competitors goes off at 12:37.
DIVISION 1 GIRLS – two teams
advance – 11:22 am 5.(7) FOLSOM 173, 6.(6) LODI 176, 7.(8) KENNEDY 205, 8.(4) YUBA CITY 210 (Erica Cuellar #2 for Modesto did not race, Danielle Piatkiewicz #4 for Fairfield did not race) TEAM CONTEST Not to play devil’s advocate, but don’t count out the talented Fairfield Falcons yet. Showing no sympathy for the Devils, the Falcons are good enough to keep another streak intact: this could be Davis’ fourth straight section final decided by less than 10 points. (The last 3 years the Blue Devils have won by 3, 2, and 8 points. Puzzling, but It’s the nature of their game.) Fairfield could put three in the top ten (the Bradshaw sisters and Danielle Jackson), and if Piatkiewicz is running 100%, it’s ‘Game On’ as Danielle will score about 14 points less than #6 Nicole Rendon. We had a devil-of-a-time deciding, but let’s put the blue dress on Davis by a score of 50-55. Modesto may look like they’re not in contention for state, but Erica Cuellar (7th at sections last year) will be back on Friday and that could mean a 25 point scoring drop right there. Other keys: Katie Drueen (11th at sections in 2004) is going to have to get in front of more black shirts for some two-point swings – and she’s got the talent to do it. And most of all, it’s ‘showtime’ for Ali Battig and Christina Veneman. The rest of the field will be jostling for places. Sheldon did a good job taking 4th at subs, but we’ll go with Folsom for 4th here, thinking a smaller meet might help the Bulldogs. They’ll begin their scoring with two pretty low numbers and senior Karyn Lawler should have a better race on her home course. That wasn’t the normal Yuba City team we’ve been seeing all year long so Amanda Sammut and Erica Bergkamp need to bounce back strong. The Honkers appear to be just 4-deep right now which puts a ceiling on how high they’ll place. Good job to Lodi this year led by Jillian Carli and Desirae Gonzalez and to Kennedy who justified their #8 ranking and should score better when Delta Kirkland gets over her cold. INDIVIDUAL CONTEST For individual qualifiers this is the heartbreak division. Last year Erica Cuellar was 7th in the section and didn’t advance to Fresno because there were 5 ‘individuals’ in front of her. Davis and Fairfield have so many frontrunners that it might play out different this year. If Modesto is the team that doesn’t advance, four of the individual berths should go to Malone, O’Day, and the two Lewis girls (Erin and Lauren), who could all finish Top 7. For the fifth berth, Sable Browning of Merced and Erica Cuellar and Katie Drueen of Modesto are looking like the three most likely candidates, assuming they can be in the Top 12. D1 GIRLS TEAM PREDICTION / RANKING (Nov. 8) DIVISION 2 GIRLS – three teams
advance – 10:57 am (Alex Ciaraglia #1 for Woodcreek did not race) TEAM CONTEST Woodcreek’s slim hopes for state rest on the sore foot of sophomore Alex Ciaraglia who was the 4th fastest girl at section finals in 2004. She wants to run in the worst way on Friday and won’t get medical clearance until Thursday. Here are enough ‘if statements’ to make an Intel programmer across Prairie City Road proud, but if Alex gets the OK, if she can run anywhere near her ability, if Jamie Brooks has a race like she had at SFL 2, if Ashley Joyner-Lapree runs well like she did on Saturday, if the Ferrer twins step it up a notch or two, and if one of the other teams stumble, Woodcreek can get to state. To round out the scoring, we’ll go with Granite Bay (five straight state meet appearances on the line), Roseville (led by Rebecca Hbtamu, 14th at Frogtown), Rocklin, and Oakmont. INDIVIDUAL CONTEST This division should get five individual qualifiers as Oak Ridge and Ponderosa won’t take up a lot of top 12 spots. There are four girls that really jump out: 2003 D3 Section Champ Cherise McNair of Sierra (top ten at state in 2004), graceful freshman Stacey Haack of Oakmont, Cailtin Clark of Granite Bay (nicely healed from summertime foot injury), and most-improved Ursy Bergmooser of Rocklin. These four were within 14 seconds of each other Saturday. You can also go ahead and pencil those four in - along with Cecily Lemmon of Vacaville - for the runner-up contenders in D2. We’ll get to the favorite (you-know-who) in a minute. For the fifth and final qualifying spot, here’s our list: Anna Murdock of Rocklin (9th at Frogtown), Samantha Gove of Wood (11th), Karrah Brown of Ceres (that wasn’t her best race Saturday), Lauren Peterson of Galt (she’s been much faster, too), and Jessie Sowers of Granite Bay. Way up front - on a course she’s quite familiar with - will be area distance queen Alex Kosinski of Oak Ridge. Alex is entering a postseason with some lofty ambitions. She is one of the state favorites in Division 2 and underrated at #13 in the FootLocker West regional rankings. She has been within 30 seconds of two-time national runner-up Marie Lawrence twice this year – 26 seconds at Granite Bay and 19 seconds at Clovis. At 2004 FootLocker West, only four girls were within 30 seconds of Mel and at FootLocker Nationals only 7 girls were within 30 seconds of her, so it’s unlikely there are 12 faster runners in the west. Last year she was the SJS section XC champ, 4th place at state, 3rd team All-Region at Footlocker West, 4th place at USATF Junior Olympics, and 2nd in the state at 1600 meters with track PR’s of 2:11/4:49/10:35. Scary to think she’s faster this XC season than last. D2 GIRLS TEAM PREDICTION / RANKING (Nov. 8) DIVISION 3 GIRLS – three teams
advance – 1:02 pm (Amy Lackner, top 5 for St. Francis did not race) TEAM CONTEST The third and final state berth is between Placer and Del Oro. Lauren Jabusch becomes very important for the Eagles to keep that #5 number low, with Randi Evans and Merie Paddeck needing to stay right where they are and score about 20 between them, or less. Del Oro is going for their 3rd state trip in a row. Placer misses #2 Elise Hinman now more than ever, but there’s still hope for third place. 14 points is not insurmountable. Michelle Dadigan might be able to drop 4-5 points, with the bulk of the numerical responsibility falling on White, Stoltenburg, and Nittler. Wouldn’t hurt for Elise Ramirez to get ahead of Jabusch either. East Union of Manteca was pretty impressive 1 thru 4 (:50 gap) which should earn the Lancers 5th place. Theresa Sianez is East Union’s #1. Vanden should take 6th place with St. Mary’s edging Del Campo for 7th. INDIVIDUAL CONTEST D3 GIRLS TEAM PREDICTION / RANKING (Nov. 8) DIVISION 4 GIRLS – three teams
advance – 12:37 pm (Georgina Arnold #3 for Riverbank did not race) TEAM CONTEST Now we come to a match-up that will be decided by base miles, hard training, and mental toughness. Bret Harte and Colfax are going down to wire for the third and final invitation to Fresno. They were dead-tied at Frogtown, and if you ‘score’ the section meet with these eight teams and insert Georgina Arnold where she belongs, you get another tie, 79-79. This is almost like the final day of Ryder Cup Golf with key head-to-head match-ups everywhere. Bret Harte’s #1 Tamilyn Lee and Colfax’ #1 Sarah Clark were only 9 seconds apart. Further back, Bret Harte’s and Colfax’ #2 runners were only 1 second apart, the #3 runners were 1 second apart, and the #4 runners were, you guessed it, 1 second apart. There was a bigger gap between the two team’s #5 runners, but Brooke Lawrence of Bret Harte was 3rd in the section last year, so that’s likely an aberration. And for the tiebreaker: each team’s #6 had the same time with Colfax slightly ahead. If the sections were last week, Bret Harte would have missed state by a lean. Lesson: run hard, you never know. Brooke Lawrence will score lower for Bret Harte, but it didn’t appear Colfax was at full-strength (?). It could come down to freshman Danielle Stam, who has been Colfax #1, and Sara Mikesell of Bret Harte who has revitalized the Bullfrogs. These teams seem almost inseparable, but we’ll pick another tie, and this time Bret Harte in a lean. Last year’s Division 5 section champ Erika Keylon of Inderkum is entered at sections, but didn’t race in Frogtown. Even without her, Inderkum, led by Katie Whitmire is the best of the rest, with Joel Bernard’s Hughson group in close pursuit. INDIVIDUAL CONTEST As mentioned above, the girl’s highlight of the day will be the duel between Maritza Garcia and Amanda Moreno in this race. Moreno will be going for her family’s seventh individual section athletic title. Brother Vic, an all-American wrestler at Cal Poly, won two section titles in cross country in the late 90’s and one in wrestling. Powerful Garcia has been healthier this year compared to last, and runs with drive and loads of confidence. One of the five individual spots will go to either Sarah Clark of Colfax or Tamilyn Lee of Bret Harte, depending on whose team does not make Fresno. The other four qualifiers could be Mary Wagner of Golden Sierra, Jessica Nelson of Amador, Caitlin Brandt of Central Catholic, and Katie Whitmire of Inderkum, with Cheryl Tanis of Hughson and Leti Dominguez of Waterford having a good shot, too. D4 GIRLS TEAM PREDICTION / RANKING (Nov. 8)
DIVISION 5 GIRLS – two teams
advance – 12:37 pm THE CONTEST
COMBINED SJS GIRLS RANKINGS (last
rank-10/20)
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