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There are few certainties in sports and even fewer when it comes
to
predicting who will do well next year in high school cross country
in
Nevada, one of the fastest growing areas of the country and a state
with
one of the most transient populations. It's especially dangerous
to
predict with the girls. Nearly half of the "impact runners"
on girls cc
teams in Nevada--and probably most states--are freshmen. For example,
of
the top 30 finishers at the girls 4A Nevada State Meet last fall
13 were
9th graders (as opposed to only 4 seniors). And looking into a crystal
ball it's too murky to tell who those incoming 9th graders are and
where
they will be running this fall.
Last fall, for example, it was pretty well
a given that Patrick Swick of Chaparral would be an impact runner;
his
record as a youth runner, running for the Las Vegas Lizards, was
well
established. But who knew about Christa Avena? Christa just showed
up at
Gorman and went from a "nobody" to arguably the number
two distance runner
in the state (third place in 4A cross country and runner-up in both
track
distance events, the 1600/3200).
And, no, I haven't forgotten about Faith Lutheran's Nikki Peterson.
Nikki's high school running accomplishments are
even more impressive than Christa's, but 2A is not 4A. (Actually,
the two
girls have comparable PR's in track and cross country.) But Nikki
Peterson
was hardly an unknown. Anyone who had followed her as a Red Rock
Racer in
LVTC races and USA T&F youth championships knew she was "for
real".
Last year's big winners in 4A were Reno High (boys) and Centennial
H.S.
(girls). Reno lost of four of their top seven to graduation, but
then most
boys teams have more seniors than do the girls teams. It appears
that Reno
was hit no harder by graduation than its closest rivals in 2000,
South
Tahoe and Galena.
On the distaff side, Centennial, South Tahoe, and Green
Valley finished within eight points of each other (in that order)
and all
three teams remain pretty much intact.
The boys team most likely to contend for the 4A state
championship, aside from Reno, South Tahoe, and
Galena, is Chaparral, led by the aforementioned Patrick Swick. Patrick
finished 6th last fall in cross country and was runner-up at state
in both
the 1600 and 3200 on the track this spring. Chaparral graduated
no seniors
from their top five of a year ago and picked up an off-season transfer
from Texas, Joe Burrola (9:58/3200 and 4:30/1600 on the track at
state).
Swick and Burrola (now a senior) give Chaparral a great 1-2 and
make the
Cowboys the preseason team-to-beat in Sunrise. After Chaparral,
the "usual
suspects" from Sunrise are Green Valley, Silverado, Basic,
and
Foothill--what I call the "Henderson Division".
On the other side of the valley in Sunset, Centennial looks like
a clear
favorite with Cimarron-Memorial, Durango, and possibly Palo Verde--like
Foothill, a program on the rise--fighting for the other two spots.
(Nine
4A teams go to State; three from the north and three each from Sunrise
and
Sunset.) Across the state, here are the other returning individuals
in
boys 4A who finished in the top-15 last fall: Jamalo Adem of Clark
(5th),
Swick, Kole Krahenbuhl of Basic (10th), Matt Dodd of Reno (11th),
Mike
Ceparano of Silverado (13th), and Chris Cosmi of South Tahoe (14th).
Reno's Chris Concha (24th), who placed third at state in both the
1600 and
the 3200, should also be given a top billing among "runners
to beat" this
fall.
Some of the other boys from Sunset who can be expected to lead
their
respective teams are David Correl and Matthew Yadegar (Cimarron-Memorial),
Jordan Stephens and Jorge Martinez (Centennial), Allen Larsen (Bonanza),
Marcus Whitehead and Emmanuel Garcia (Durango), Kevin Sully (Palo
Verde),
Devon and Stephon Davis (Cheyenne), Kumiye Hussein (Clark) and Ray
Rodriguez (Vo Tech).
From Sunrise also watch for Agustin Luna and Anthony
Petrillo (Chaparral), Alex Wilcox and Ron Stoker (Foothill), David
Winkler
and Korre Heggem (Green Valley), Paul Hafen and Tyler Sorenson (Basic),
and Corey Thompson and Brad Royal (Silverado).
In girls 4A the competition should be very tight. Centennial, which
returns its top seven from a year ago, is led by sophomore Meghan
Mathews
(runner-up at state) and senior Allison Carney (7th at state). Centennial
also has three other returning runners who placed in the top 30
at state
last fall. South Tahoe returns four of their top seven, including
sophomore Amber Ramos (4th at state) who ran a 11:57/3200 at state
this
spring. Green Valley, likewise with no graduating seniors, will
be led by
junior Emily Eskin (6th at state). Other teams that will likely
be leaders
in the battle for a trip to State are Foothill, Basic, and Silverado
from
Sunrise; Palo Verde, Bonanza, and Durango from Sunset; and Carson,
Reno,
and McQueen from the North.
The outstanding female runner in 4A is clearly junior Shanna Sparks,
the
defending state champ. Sparks was 2nd team All Western Region at
Footlocker in 2000 and ran 11:19 in winning the 3200 on the track
at state
this spring. Shanna is a legitimate "national contender".
The following girls were All-State (top 15) last year and are returning
this fall:
Sparks, Matthews, Avena, Eskin, Carney, Karen DeMartini of Reno
(8th),
Tanya Joyce-Mendive of Douglas (10th), Michelle Glenn of Reno (11th),
Lindsay Harris of Green Valley (12th), Karen Brigman of McQueen
(13th),
Kali Baker of Centennial (14th), and Erica Zampardo of South Tahoe
(15th).
To that list add the following girls from Sunset who are expected
to be
among the front runners this fall: Natasha Wicks and Shoshanna Yadegar
(Cimarron-Memorial); Natilie Fehrensen and Melissa Voss (Palo Verde);
Tamara Dudas, Minette Porterfield, and Jen Fajardo (Bonanza); Patty
Boghos
and Shana Wilshire (Durango); and Laura and Melissa O'Connor, Kelli
Brown,
and Megan Romeo (Centennial).
And from Sunrise : Deann Bradshaw, Jenni Wardlaw, Beth Stoner,
and Megan
Karl (Foothill); Jackie Favreau, Katie Hughes, and Stacie DeGagne
(Green
Valley); Samantha Serrano, Ashley Perkins, and Brianna Krahenbuhl
(Basic);
Yolanda Chee (Eldorado); Michelle Chee (Rancho); Abbey Mathis and
Chaz and
Karen LaHodny (Silverado).
As an aside, Chaz LaHodny, who placed third at state as a freshman
running
for Clark and who last year ran for Faith Lutheran, has transferred
and is
expected to be eligible to run for Silverado in this, her senior
year.
That will certainly give the Skyhawks a LaHodny flavor since Debbie
LaHodny, an\entering freshman, will join her two sisters on the
Silverado
team.
Among the lower divisions (2A/3A), the one team that truly stands
out
state-wide is the girls team from Lowry. The Buckaroos from Winnemucca
won
the 3A title in 2000 with 17 points and graduated nary a senior.
Lowry is
led by sophomore twins Kelsey and Katie Engstrom. Kelsey was the
3A state
champ in cross country, as well as both the 1600 and the 3200 this
spring.
Katie, 7th in cc in '00, was 4th at state in the 1600 and 3rd in
the 3200.
Heather Thompson, also from Lowry, was runner-up in cc last fall
and was
the 800 meter state champ in 3A track. Boulder City, North Tahoe,
and
Spring Creek will fight for the scraps in girls 3A. Boulder City's
Kristie
McRae (9th at state) is the south's top returning runner.
Boys 3A should be more "up for grabs" this fall. Boulder
City, the
defending champs, was hit hard by graduation and only returns two
runners
who finished among the top 10 last fall--Justin Barrow (6th) and
Aaron
Ross (8th). The team most likely to challenge for team honors is
North
Tahoe, which will be led by Jose Ramirez--runner-up in cc in '00
and both
the 1600 and the 3200 in state track this spring--and Tommy Mills
(9th in
'00 cc). 2A boys is dominated by three outstanding young men: Drew
Casselberry of Incline, Greg Sullivan of Beatty, and Chris Clauson
of
Independence. Seniors Casselberry and Sullivan finished 1-2 last
fall
while Clauson, who placed 6th in cc last fall, ran a 9:48 3200 as
a
freshman in winning the 2A 3200 at state.
Girls 2A features one of the better teams in the state, at any
level,
Faith Lutheran. The Crusaders out of Las Vegas are led by Nikki
Peterson.
The defending 2A cc champ, Peterson was a quad winner in 2A track
this
spring (400/800/1600/3200). Faith Lutheran has strong returning
runners
behind Peterson (despite the transfer of LaHodny), and pick up incoming
freshman Delayna Jensen, who comes in with outstanding credentials
as a
runner for the Red Rock Racers. Three returning runners who finished
in
the top five in 2A last fall are Christine Barrett (2nd) and Sarah
Day
(3rd), also of Faith Lutheran, and Lindsey Zeller (5th) of Indian
Springs.
Diana Sitar of the Meadows, who ran sub 6 and sub 13 for the 1600
and 3200
on the track this spring, could be an impact runner in 2A this fall
as
well.
I'm sorry this first column for nevadatrackstats.com is so "long
winded"
but I did want to mention as many deserving runners as possible.
It will
be fun to revisit my prognostications come November and see how
they show
up on the results page.
I'll be doing one more forecast, or rather an amended forecast,
in mid
August before the season starts but once I've had a chance to speak
to
more coaches. I will then try to highlight the outstanding runners
and
teams throughout the state, on a bi-weekly basis as the cc season
progresses.
Through this column I also hope to focus on issues and events that
effect
us all as coaches, fans, parents, and athletes involved with cross
country
and track in the state of Nevada--items that likely won't make the
local
papers but that are important or worth commenting on as I see them.
The
ideas and opinions expressed will be strictly my own, but readers
are
welcome to comment, criticize, and offer any suggestions or ideas
for
future subjects by contacting me through the web site or by e-mail
direct.
[email protected].
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