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DyeStat Missouri
State Meet Preview
1A, 2A Boys
by Aaron Gundel of Missouri Runners Nation
Class 1A
As you all already know, I am a 1A runner myself. I will do this as unbiased as possible within the bounds of the cold hard facts.
The Teams, and the Facts
1999 has broken. Few things shall remain the same in the 2000 Cross Country State Meet. Let's go into last year's recap (not in detail, it isn't that important because of what we've seen) just so we can get a rough idea of what's going on.
In 1999 the Linn Wildcats had a two-year consecutive streak at state. Can they do the same again? The answer, plain and simple, is probably not. Struck hard by the loss of several key runners from the 1999 lineup, the Wildcats have suffered in September, and are looking just a little too weak to claim state in 2000. Let's go to the paper: One of their boys is running under 18, Matt Seifert, an all-state runner from 1999, they have three guys under 19, and three under 20. They haven't had the best of luck in getting the same runners they had last year, according to Coach Phillips. HOWEVER, there's one thing I have failed to mention. Coach Phillips is a GREAT coach. The Wildcats will run on EVERYTHING they have in 2000, and give it their absolute best shot at making their streak a three year run, as any team with a two year streak, I would NOT count them out of the running. They may not look good on paper, but things happen at state. Big things, as we have well seen.
Now for that which we have not seen. The Alton Comets are a wildcard in the race for State Cross-Country. Nobody has heard anything of their progress, and they are a virtual dark-horse. All we can go on is the 1999 results, which we have well seen can be blatently wrong. Only time will explain where Alton is. That time is November 4th, 2000 (or districts if I'm feeling lucky).
Continuing on down the list...we run into Southwest High School. I am not at liberty to make ANY comments on the Trojans because I am one of them, so everything italicised is BRANDON'S doing. OKAY??? Ok."The talented Southwest team headed by Cody Sapp, who seems to be running the best of his career, will be in a exciting battle for the state title with their Linn rivals. The team has improve by a great deal with tougher training this season, which includes a tough 1,000 meter loop."
Valley Park, the last trophying school in 1999, probably isn't returning in 2000. They have not been doing very well, as they were 25th place at the Hancock Invitational's small school division, with 634 points. Their defeat looks to show that they have been crushed by graduation or some other force though the off-season. Only a miracle will bring them a trophy. (Proof of this punch (sorry to call it that, but I was at a lack of words) can be found at: Great Overlands Conference Invitational, and Hancock Invitational.)
NOW for those who have stepped up into trophy contention for this year. This is the moment we've all been waiting for I'm sure (wink, wink).
St. Mary's Independence will put up a fight this year and place themself in contention for a trophy. Two of their guys are under 18, (please see Kansas City Metro Championships) However, after that, there is little in the way of a threat. They could certainly contend for a trophy, but with a 5th guy over 20 mins, EVEN on the DIFFICULT course at Swoope Park (which we certainly recognize), the odds are not looking good for one of the top two. The bottom line is, if St. Mary's doesn't sharpen their back end, they stand little chance, but are certainly a threat if they do.
As my initial thought stood, that Cardinal Ritter would be a threat (or so I thought at the beginning of the season). I renounce my thoughts, I guess I was wrong. I simply thought that two All-State Freshman was certainly nothing to joke about, and though it isn't, I see no reason for Cardinal Ritter to threaten the top 4 this year. (Please see Northside Invitational). I could be wrong though, because both of the All-State Freshmen were missing.... Which is, needless to say, very odd.....
Osceola will be the only thing that could put down Southwest this year. Their strength has been proven, by far, in many different ways. But, we must read between the lines to get the picture. At the beginning of the season, it was the divine intuition of Coach Brett Phillips that Osceola would rear up and strike soon, just following Linn's victory (please see Fulton Invitational) over them at the start of the season. He was right. We will have to use a 2A team as our judging block to prove this. At the beginning of the season, Linn itself was mercilessly defeated by Pembroke at the Hancock Invitational. To judge Osceola, we must look at their running of the Clinton Invitational, in which Osceola narrowly (probably because their #1 runner lost a shoe and was 6th on their team) PUT DOWN Pembroke Hill (St. Mary's was third, FYI). What does this say? It says that Osceola poses a big thread over the top two spots in 2000. And I am one to say that threats certainly have a way of blossoming, much as Osceola has.
Bottom line, who is going to win 1A Cross Country? Honestly, I can't comment, because I refuse to be accused of bias, which has happened before. We shall say this: 1A State this year is going to be different, with a strengthened All-State field, and much lower team scoring than in 1999. I'll leave the predictions to you, I have given the facts, now you judge them. You won't get a word from me.~
The Individuals, and the Facts Let's zoom back to 1999 for a second. Four of the top 5 are returning in 2000, or so we are presuming at this second. Senior Ricky Turnbough exits the top 5 from last year, but everyone else returns. INCLUDING a star.
Tommy Neal is well on his way to repeat his dominance in 2000, as he has been killing the field in most of the meets in which her runs. With improved times and far superior skill as to what he had last year, he will most certainly be returning to the top five, barring injuiries and such. (for all the proof you will ever need in your lifetime, please see Clinton Invitational and the Missouri XC Challenge.
As I have said once before in this preview, Kenny Burtke has completely dissappeared. The Freshman who earned the title of State Runner Up in 1999 is no-where to be seen in 2000. It is because of this that I cannot adequately preview him, because, as we all know, things change. So I am at odds about what to tell you. All I can do is recap his 1999 finish, 2nd, 17:39, and say that's a wrap. Kenny Burtke has achieved the status of 'dark-horse'.
Richard Barnes has started off his season at a brisk pace, not to be out-done in recent competition. He has won most of his SW Missouri Meets, but seems to be slightly lacking in the times area from what he did in 99. I can say this with utmost confidence because of his not-so-great runs at Nixa. (Sorry, no results, it's all in my coaches big folder, please ask missilesilo if you want to know). Will he return to the status of top 5 in 2000? I say unlikely. His times just aren't sayin' it.
Who can forget Andy Pace from St. Mary's? Nobody. His times, also, however, seem to be lacking. No, I am not talking about his awesome run at Swoope Park in the Kansas City Metro Championships (see above for link), I am talking about his less-than-par run at Blue Valley North, which is reportedly a VERY easy course. Some have even jumped to call it a 'wind tunnel'. 17:58 at the meet is highly unusual, unless the course was drastically redesigned for some reason which I cannot comprehend. However, perhaps the course was redesigned. Who am I to comment? I can't, so I won't. Judging by his time at Metro, and that is what I am going by, I'd give Pace a legitimate shot at making the top 5 again.
After this, place six is exactly what I have said about Kenny Burtke (probably because they're on the same team), but continuing on down the list, Le Grand Jones is back this year, and thankfully for me, not a darkhorse so I can profile him. He placed third at the Ozark 8 Conference, (please see it's Results). The odd part is...there were two runners ahead of him....so either Le Grand has slowed up, or the field is going to improve. They will have no choice BUT to improve.
Places 8-10 are gone. All seniors, all graduated, not to be worried about.
Now for the moment you have been waiting for: the shockers.
TOPPING my list is junior Cody Sapp of Southwest. The REASON I get to write about him is because I am not giving any trash talk or opinions. Just the facts. Cody Sapp mercilessly slaughtered Richard Barnes at the Diamond Invitational and SW Coaches meet (Once again, see missilesilo). Sapp won Nixa versus some competition from senior Dale Morton from Springfield Catholic, virtually killed the field, might I add. The meets he has won: All-Southwest Coaches Meet, Nixa, Purdy, Ozark 8 Conference, not to mention a 18th place finish at MSSC, a very difficult meet, and a 5th place finish at Springfield. It the belief of MANY and not JUST me, that he can pose a challenge to Neal.
Another close individual will be Colten (sp?) Green of Mack's Creek. Green had a nice lead over Barnes at the beginning of the season, as is proved in the Stratford Invitational. However, nothing more has been proven, so we will have to wait until state to find out.
I think I shall close out my list now. Information is very sketchy after that, and I'll let you all draw your own conclusions. In closing, I'd like to say good luck to all the 1A teams in the state. The season's almost over, and you're right on the edge of it. So sleep well, train hard, and race even better. See you November 4th.~
Class 2A
By: Mark Vanslyke, Coach, East Newton Patriots
2A Boys Cross Country Preview Any attempt to select the top teams at the State CC meet is pretty much guesswork and this article should be taken with a grain of salt. So much can happen at the State meet that can help a team or hurt a team,that it is a real crap shoot to pre-pick the teams. So......let's roll the dice and have some fun.
To recap from last fall, the team from St. Francis Borgia tallied 116 pts. to take top honors. They are still a young team that had NO seniors in their top 5 last fall. Principia was 2nd with 128 pts., they lost their #1,#3 and #5 runnners to graduation. Clinton was 3rd ringing up 130 pts. and they lost their #1,#3,#4 and #5 runners. Priory was 4th with 137 pts. and they will not have their #5 and #6 runners. These teams were extremely close in 1999 with only 21 points seperating 1st to 4th.
I believe these teams will advance out of their districts.
Dist. #1: Herculaneum,St. Pius X Dist. #2: Priory, Principia Dist. #3: Duchesne, Orchard Farm Dist.#4: St. Francis Borgia,Owensville Dist. #5: Dixon, John F. Hodge(couldn't find hardly any info on this dist. this is a real guess) Dist#6: East Newton, Logan-Rogersville Dist# 7: Oak Grove, Bolivar Dist # 8: Pembroke Hill, Platte Co.
That was very hard to pick, and I think it looks like some good teams will stay home because of tough districts.(#8,#4,#3,#2 and #1 appear to be strong in terms of 3 or 4 good teams). I'll base my State CC picks on these teams, so if I blew it on the Districts, I'll really mess up these picks.
Top teams at state: Borgia has to be the favorite heading in to the State meet. They return a strong squad with a standout runner in Straatmann and they have ran well this fall. Experience counts for alot at Jefferson City and this team is experienced, and successful. Close behind them is Priory, they appear ready to give Borgia a challenge having run as close as 15 pts. to them earlier this fall. The next several teams are very close right now. For 3rd I chose Pembroke Hill, a 5th place finisher in 99 that lost only their # 5 runner from that squad. My 4th pick is East Newton, a team I know very well and I am hesitant to even comment on, but this is for fun so here goes. E.N. finished 9th in 99 and return all of their top 5. Newcomers Platte Co. may figure into the mix also. So I am going to go way -out on a limb and pick the top 8 at State.
1.Borgia 2.Priory 3.Pembroke Hill 4.East Newton 5.Platte Co. 6.Principia 7.Herculaneum 8.Duchense/Orchard Farm/Owensville I know the last pick is cheap but I just couldn't exclude any of those teams. As usual the State meet will be very hard to call, the teams that pack their top 5 close together will stand a good chance. Plus the teams that have standout individuals will have a real advantage in this race. Often winning teams place at least one runner in the top 10. Last year's top 10 had 5 seniors with the top returnee being Manning of Priory followed by Straatmann of Borgia and Weiburg(Fatima) Randall(Winfield) Gross(Herculaneum). Judging by meet results that I have seen the early favorite is Glass of Principia(11th in 99) followed by Straatmann and Manning. This race could be very close and competitve.
I hope that I have not offended anyone with this preview. I went on the results I could find and alot of wild guesses! This year could again be a very close race with a score of 100 to 110 winning it all. This year will see some powerhouse teams that have fared well in recent years such as .....Borgia,Priory,Principia,and Pembroke Hill. I also believe some new faces will be competitive such as.......Platte Co.,Owensville,East Newton. I wish good luck to all the young men who have trained and raced this fall with one goal in mind........Nov. 4th. I hope your dream comes true for you and your team on that Saturday.
Note: Looking through the meet results in Mo. is crazy. Villa Duchense/Duchense and Westphalia/Fatima and Platte Co. /Platte City and Whitfield/Winfield andSt. Pius X KC or Festus are hard to figure out, if I have left off a quality team , I'm sorry.
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