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***Foot Locker West Region Preview***
Mo', 'Too, 'Tuz and Rupp...
Can the West Region's four aces trump the Northeast's full house?

Trafeh and Matusak photos by Kirby Lee, Kiptoo photo by Blake Wood, Rupp photo by Victor Sailer
If patterns hold true to form, Mohamed Trafeh (recent Mt. SAC course recordholder),
Shadrack Kiptoo, Mark Matusak and Galen Rupp (those three still unbeaten in 2003) are
projected qualifiers from a West Region overflowing with contenders for 8 berths to nationals!

By Rich Gonzalez, DyeStatCal Editor

          WALNUT – The gates are wide open, but which of the nation’s newest megatalents will spot that dangling opportunity in likely joining a pair of proven sensations to claim the last eight berths to San Diego?
         That’s the big question entering this weekend’s Foot Locker West Regional in Southern California, where just two national qualifiers from a year ago return to action. Hometown favorite Mohamed Trafeh and Oregon superstar Galen Rupp are the heavy favorites to advance after successful qualifying efforts a year ago, although neither could be considered a clear favorite to win the region this weekend.
         Enter New Mexico’s Shadrack Kiptoo, California's Mark Matusak and Washington’s David Kinsella – a trio of the nation’s fastest-rising new talents. All three have stamped themselves among America’s new elite in recent weeks, with the first two arriving here in search of continued domination while keeping unbeaten seasons intact.
         Add in a triumvirate of accomplished runners – Oregon’s Stuart Eagon, Arizona’s Charles Hampton and California’s Troy Swier – each with bitter 2002 regional memories clearly etched in their memory banks, and this year’s Foot Locker Cross-Country Championships West Regional figures to be among the most wide open in ages.
         Sit back, gloss over the thumbnail backgrounds of these fine harriers, then make your selections in our predictions contest as the action should prove to be hot and heavy!
         Here’s our breakdown of what’s in store:

To many, Galen Rupp remains an enigma. Closely monitored and seemingly shielded from the masses by training and American marathoning legend Alberto Salazar, the still somewhat mysterious Oregon superstar has begun depressing the accelerator in recent weeks, aiming to hit full throttle at just the right time in excorcizing the national finals demons that plagued him en route to a DNF performance a year ago. Now sharper, more focused and mentally tougher, Rupp might very well get his wish of "racing the Kenyans head-on" for glory, but even a bit sooner than he initially planned (see "Kiptoo" below). Unbeaten against preps this fall, Rupp sent a pristine message to his rivals at the recent Nike Border Clash spectacular, opting to hang with the leaders for all but the last 300 meters, then unleashing a strong end-of-race surge that earned him the victory going away. Then, rather than stick around for the post-race press conference a few minutes later, Rupp sped off to do an intense and previously scheduled 800/300-meter track workout with Stuart Eagon elsewhere on the Nike 'campus'. Yes, he had plenty left at Border Clash, in case anyone was wondering. So long as he remains relaxed and keeps those muscles loose, he might very well be the kid on top of the mountain a little more than a week from now, joining the likes of Dathan Ritzenhein and Co. in further brightening America's future distance-running prospects.
Mohamed Trafeh seemingly has more fans than Kenya has sub-14-minute 5k talents, and that's plenty. Despite a humbling mid-season loss to Mark Matusak in a race where Trafeh fell short of fulfilling his predictions of creaming the course record, his following was quick to offer a myriad of explanations. Then, once Ramadan hit, some of those predicted his performance might temporarily suffer. But Trafeh, in affirming what other top-end Ramadan-observing athletes have said in recent months, was more empowered than weakened during the spiritual period, stamping an exclamation point on a steady and strong senior campaign by tying Ryan Hall's Mt. SAC renovated-course record (in use since 1999) at the section finals a few weeks back. At last weekend's state meet, close observation revealed Trafeh is more than prepared for a bid at the national title, wheeling through the two-mile mark in easily the day's best time before noticeably "shutting down" the jets en route to a Division IV victory. Afforded the luxury of competing in a division where national caliber is lacking, Trafeh arrives here as the freshest Golden State contender, in prime position for a peak. Trafeh claimed to have gone only 70 percent at the state meet last weekend, but his collection of unfulfilled grandiose claims (such as promises of sub-4:05 and sub 8:40 last spring and a sub-14:20 at Mt. SAC this fall) often lead some to wonder if his legs will ever cash the checks his jawbone seems to enjoy writing (which keeps things entertaining for his legion of fans, no doubt). Maybe, just maybe, it's time for Trafeh to finally cash in.

           As far as the Shadrack Kiptoo fan club is concerned, better late than never. Kiptoo, a national-class age-group performer in his native Kenya before moving here more than a year ago, finally had his 180-school-day (almost exactly one calendar year) ban lifted in October, meaning the nation has been formally introduced to its newest and most lethal national title contender. 'Too dazzled on the oval circuit back home before transferring to the States, albeit in an unaccredited foreign exchange program, thus resulting in the near one-year sit-out instituted by New Mexico's state association. Having already run at altitude what computes out to be a 14:02/5k cross-country equivalent at sea level (not to mention even better times on the track), Kiptoo (who moved here to live with his uncle in an apartment owned by Kiptoo's high school coach, famed Masters level marathoner Eddy Hellebuyck) is seemingly rated as a man among boys. Physically, his powerful gait and refined cardiovascular engine are beyond compare on the prep national scene, but it remains to be seen how he'll handle any pressure as the new heavy favorite, rather than merely sharing the burden of being among a truckload of talented young runners in his native homeland. Just how menacing is Kiptoo to his rivals? Well, here's how one very national caliber adversary described a head-on encounter with him earlier this year: "Today, I got totally destroyed by him,"
           If you're looking for what could be America's next premier talent, meet Mark Matusak, a Los Angeles-based junior whose laser-like focus come race time is reminiscent of the intensity fostered by legends past. Although seemingly a beefy expectation to place on the shoulders of a runner yet unproven outside of state lines (he has never traveled thus far), Matusak did click off 4:11 and 9:04 clockings as a sophomore in the springtime, then tagged Mohamed Trafeh with his only loss of the season when these two hooked up at the Mt. SAC Invitational six weeks back. "Tuz" tried as best he could to hold back at last weekend's state meet, but a tactical error in not opting to make a solid move to put away the competition early led to leaving one pesky rival around by mid-race, causing him to expend just a tad bit more energy than he wished. Even so, Matusak's controlled 15:08 clocking on the Woodward Park was best of the day at the California state meet.
            Searching for our "Insider's Pick" (given our past success at tabbing individuals before they 'truly arrive' in major meets in recent years, this might be worth taking note) for the West Region? Keep a very good eye on Washington's Tom Wyatt, a Chris Solinsky-type stallion who has quickly begun to make work of his state's elite talents in recent weeks. Although competing in the smallest division at the state meet, Wyatt posted among the best times of the day. He then placed a very impressive third (to Galen Rupp and David Kinsella) at the recent Border Clash showdown. Focus, maturity and talent make this youngster a classic diamond in the rough. Which lucky college has he committed to?

Dangerous, driven and hungry. Those are the best words to describe Washington's David Kinsella, a quietly rising talent over the last eight months who is on the fringe of being a household name. Kinsella kept Galen Rupp honest at the recent Border Clash (including being within two strides of him in photo above, with 300 meters to go). If there was ever a total darkhorse to be a Top 5 finisher at nationals (assuming he can claw through regionals), this is the one. He is nails!

Stuart Eagon entered the 2003 cross-country campaign with high expectations, especially after illness/injury derailed him for much of the springtime. Now the Oregon-based talent (his Beaverton High campus is located in the same city as Nike's world headquarters) is aiming to swoosh right by the competition. A strong but controlled showing at the recent Border Clash in his hometown revealed he is in the thick of it this weekend, wishing nothing more than to unseat favored ally Rupp atop the state/national hierarchy and gain a berth to nationals. Washington standouts Evan Garber and Laef Barnes of Mead HS have seemingly picked their target races shrewdly this fall, ever cognizant of leaving plenty in the tank for this phase of the season. Garber, among the leading finishers at Border Clash, and Barnes, third to Bobby Curtis and Carl Moe at the Golden West Invitational mile last June, should be peaked for this one here. Arizona's Charles Hampton was victimized by a slow start at last year's regional, then forced to fight his way through a congested pack in eventually running out of real estate and settling for 14th. More aware of the logistics this time out, he also recently toured the Mt. SAC course in the high 14:40's in a non-publicized effort. Hampton, Arizona's best in 2003, also was the victor of the recent Arizona/Nevada Border War and is one of the premier rising talents in the national landscape.

          Where was Babey Wagnew all year? Will Troy Swier ever run healthy in a big race this fall? Where was Yosef Ghebray early on? How good is Jeremy Mineau? How much upside does Brandon Bethke really have? Ahhhh yes, the pool of dark horses --- those individuals everyone knows about, but no one seems to give full credit to. That could very well change this weekend. Babey Wagnew, whose school is located within a short drive from the nationals course, is the region's #3 returnee from a year ago, but missed most of this season due to academic ineligiblity centering on one bad grade. His section-leading time at the CIF-San Diego championships prompted many to declare him fit and ready to go, but a disappointing 14th-place Division I finish at the state meet has only elicited fresh questions.
         Another talented San Diego entry is Troy Swier, who crested a new wave by running 4:11 and change for 1600 meters on successive days at the CIF-State Track and Field Championships in June. Swier, however, was weakened by sickness at both the mid-season Mt. SAC Invitational and last weekend's CIF-State Championships (bad chest congestion, we were notified the day before the race). If healthy, the former Mt. SAC junior class course recordholder (14:38 last year) could be a huge factor. Yosef Ghebray is the money man, a youngster oft written off in early season, only to repeatedly establish his credentials come championship time. Ghebray added to that ledger last weekend, unleashing a late rally to win the CIF-State Division I crown. He is brazen, quietly confident, and dangerously underestimated.
         Brandon Bethke could be this year's Michael Poe -- a fiercely strong individual with notable resolve. After unleashing a fine string of big performances in September, Bethke struggled to keep form at the Mt. SAC Invitational. Prematurely labeled by some as one unable to cope with hills, Bethke then redeemed himself with a solid sectional championship on the same Mt. SAC course a month later. Menlo-Atherton's Jeremy Mineau might be the most dangerous darkhorse, with few ever throwing out his name in a race of this magnitude. Yet the dreadlocked teen dazzled at the early-season Stanford Invitational, then made a fierce challenge for the California Division I state crown a year ago. While competing in a pocket of the state where his efforts often go well hidden, he has pieced together among the most successful campaigns among those at this level.
         The good news for cross-country fans is that Daniel Nunn changed his mind and has decided within the last 48 hours to enter this year's race. Of course, that's bad news for the competition. Nunn, unbeaten in any race of substance this fall, is fresh off state and sectional victories in recent weeks, adding to his divisional Mt. SAC Invitational triumph the month before. Add in his "C" heat victory in 9:13 and change at the Arcadia Invitational and his 9:08 effort later in the year, and one quickly gets the sense this kid is the best-kept secret in the Western United States. Not for long.
          Idaho's Adam Follett has ruled his statewide competition this fall, trouncing their courses to establish nifty course records in large-margin fashion. Often competing at altitude, it will be very interesting to see how he copes with the hills of Mt. SAC after having his state meet more than a month ago. Nevada's Patrick Swick was tabbed as our best bet to be the region's most improved runner entering the season. Instead, a smattering of less-than-stellar races had us scratching our head. Not to worry, as Swick has rebounded very strongly in recent weeks, punctuated by a lean-at-the-line loss to Arizona's Charles Hampton at the Arizona/Nevada Border War and a recent regional cross-country victory on the Junior Olympics circuit.

          There's a littany of leading talents courting strong credentials, but it remains to be see whether any can "step it up" to fulfill their full potential to knock of the 'established names' in arriving individually on the national stage. Among the top threats positioned here is Arizona's Justin Langdon, who handed in-state foe Charles Hampton his only legit on-the-course loss of the season, but was humbled at the season-ending Arizona-Nevada Border War. California's Alex Dunn is our best bet to make an impact on the collegiate scene within the next 24 months, with the tall and lanky teen (signed on with NCAA West Region power Cal Poly San Luis Obispo) very capable of a sharp breakthrough for a San Lorenzo Valley program decorated with individual female talents over the years.
         California senior John Wihtol has enjoyed a monster breakthrough this fall, with the Jesuit High star dipping well below 15 minutes on the Mt. SAC course already this fall. Fellow Californian Jake Schmitt has split two head-on clashes with Wihtol in 2003, with the savvy racer easily considered among the most potent junior-class talent in the Western United States. Utah's Steve Strickland (fourth at the blockbuster Great American Cross Country Festival bash in late September) has quietly enjoyed a solid individual campaign within a powerhouse Mountain View program more fixated on the team concept over the years, with the gem of this year's Bruins program looking to really sparkle here.
         Three others worthy of deep respect here Oregon's Zuber Ahmed, New Mexico's Andres Urbina, and California's Kyle Shackleton. Ahmed 12 months ago was touted as the state's best hope to challenge Galen Rupp by now, due in large part to monstrous late-season improvements when arriving on the scene in 2002, but the talented foreigner has yet to shore the gap as quickly as some had thought. Urbina and teammate Cody Harper have been the backbone for a powerhouse Albuquerque Academy program in recent years, with the former being the closest to all-world teen talent Shadrack Kiptoo this far in recent months. Shackleton has been a steady performer on the California scene this fall, with his recent upswing helping carry his Carlmont High team to a surprise state runner-up showing last weekend. Twin brother Drew Shackleton is another dangerous candidate here.

Washington's Jeff Helmer and California's Michael Coe
seek to continue their rise into national prominence.

          Looking for some potential gems for the 2005 meet? The keep an eye on Washington’s Jeff Hellmer and Cabrillo’s Michael Coe, two of the premier sophomores on the West Coast.
          Hellmer caught attention by placing a superb eighth at the recent Nike Border Clash in Beaverton, helping pace his state to a resounding team victory overly its southerly neighbors, finishing a mere 25 seconds behind national title contender Galen Rupp. Coe has been the Golden State’s leading age-group talent over the last two years, with the large-framed talent already posting a sophomore state-leading 15:19 on Mt. SAC’s conventional 2.91-mile course this fall.
          These two could be names to keep track of in the years to come.

          Although Marc Bloom has gone on record in stating that he rarely uses Foot Locker Regional results in determining his Harrier National Rankings (due to partial squads, the meet being so late on the calendar for some states, etc.), when pressed on the matter a couple of years ago, he did reveal that he does consider any new surprise developments, potential oversights, etc., that become apparent at these meets in possibly refining his order.
          That said, keep an eye on the girls seeded race, where #2 Los Alamos of New Mexico and #10 Sultana of Southern California lock up, as each have four runners entered. Might either team have a fifth involved in a non-seeded race? Los Alamos runners destroyed this course here a year ago to cement their year-end #2 ranking.
          On the boys side, #6 Central Catholic and #9 Don Lugo each appear to have at least four runners competing in the seeded race. So although we’re not saying this will directly affect the national rankings, we’re also confident any pertinent new developments will not be ignored!

***First-Team***

Stuart Eagon (Beaverton HS, Oregon) --
Charles Hampton (Brophy Prep, Arizona) --
David Kinsella (Inglemoor HS, Washington) --
Shadrack Kiptoo (New Mexico) --
Mark Matusak (Loyola HS, California) --
Galen Rupp (Central Catholic HS, Oregon) --
Mohamed Trafeh (Duarte HS, California) --
Tom Wyatt (Charles Wright Academy, Washington) --

***Second-Team***

Laef Barnes (Mead HS, Washington) --
Evan Garber (Mead HS, Washington) --
Yosef Ghebray (James Logan HS, California) --
Matt Heller (Landers HS, Wyoming) --
Jose Melena (Antelope Valley HS, California) --
Daniel Nunn (San Luis Obispo HS, California) --
Patrick Swick (Chaparral HS, Nevada) --
Troy Swier (Mar Vista HS, California) --

	Foot Locker West Regional Seeded Boys Race Preview Saturday, December 6, 2003 @ Mt. SAC - 5k