Getting nationally ranked might be as easy as...

80:00 and 95:30??? ... see tables below!

Ever wondered what it really takes to get nationally ranked? How fast is fast enough?

Well, this might help somewhat in answering that:

Doug Speck's listing of the all-time fastest team-time performances at Woodward Park was posted on the mainpage on Tuesday. At about the same time, Keith Chann added a pretty impressive research list on the message board on top California teams the last two years. Another thread earlier in the week touched on the national rankings. I figured tying these all together would be a neat historical picture of the top teams over the past quarter century.

Below is research done yesterday on every single team on the all-time list, comparing them to the year-end national rankings found in "The Harrier Magazine."

Here's what I found:

1) Since "The Harrier" national rankings were created in 1989, there have been a total of 19 boys teams that have broken 80 minutes on the Woodward Park course: thirteen from California and six from outside of California.

2) Of those 19 boys teams cited above, all 19 ended up being ranked nationally in the Top 25 at the end of the season. Not only ranked, but ranked highly! Of those 19 teams, 17 were ranked in the "Top 10" at the end of that year!

First conclusion: A boys team that cracks 80 minutes at Woodward Park is among the very best in the country, having been ranked in the "Top 10" a stunning 89% of the time!

3) Since "The Harrier" national rankings were created in 1989, there have been a total of 20 girls teams that have broken 95:30 on the Woodward Park course: nineteen from California and one from outside California.

4) Of those 20 girls teams cited above, 19 of the 20 ended up being ranked nationally in the Top 25 at the end of the season. Not only ranked, but ranked highly! Of those 20 teams, 16 were ranked in the "Top 10" at the end of the year! (The only unranked team to ever break 95:30 was Clovis, which ran 94:13 in 1996. We have no idea why they were not ranked.)

Second conclusion: A girls team that cracks 95:30 at Woodward Park is among the very best in the country, having been ranked in the "Top" 10" an impressive 80% of the time!

5) Although you might not think it, there are dozens of teams within striking distance of the eventual "Top 10" teams every year. By striking distance, we mean within a matter of just several seconds. Having talked to people familiar with the national rankings process over the last several years and compared this with how our Golden State teams have fared in the national rankings process, it has been apparent that a team just 20 seconds off the "Top 10" teams pretty much have their fate sealed --- as there are enough high-end teams across the country able to swoon in and claim one of those precious 25 slots.

Third conclusion: Boys team that crack 80:15 or so and girls teams that crack 96:00 at Woodward Park are "usually" fairly safe bets to make the national rankings.

6) When a state does PARTICULARLY WELL on the all-time lists in a given year, however, that state appears to hit the "point of diminishing returns," where the "profit margin" tends to become poorer. As example, use Girls Cross Country 2000 season. This was probably our strongest year on record for girls teams, as a stunning EIGHT teams broke 96:00. As those familiar with the rankings process know, however, Marc Bloom (the person compiling the national rankings) just doesn't put eight teams from one state in the "Top 25" poll. He tries to spread the talent recognition across the map. Of those eight teams to break 96:00 that year, "only" five made the national rankings. The five teams in 2000 are the most California teams ranked in the year-end poll in a single year.

Fourth conclusion: When a windfall of teams meet the so-called magical time standards above, it appears the bottom end of those teams won't make the poll. When just a few teams make the standard, all those essentially make the national "Top 25" poll.

7) For some reason, 1996 appeared to be a weird year for California teams and the year-end rankings. Four California girls teams broke 96:00 that year, but only one of those four ended up ranked nationally. That same year, only one boys team (Concord De La Salle, #12) ended up ranked nationally.

Nevertheless, the time standards mentioned toward the top of this post gives good indication at what it takes to be nationally ranked.

If you check the Woodward Park all-time team time list on the mainpage of DyeStatCal, you will see it has been revised since Tuesday.

So what's all this stuff above mean for this weekend?

Well, based on some research and conversions, we think that a nice day of weather at Fresno this weekend combined with the very fine group of high-end teams could yield as many as 10 girls teams and six boys teams meeting the standards above. **** WHOA! We nabbed it right on! Just got back from the 2002 state meet --- six boys teams sub 80:15 and 10 girls teams sub-96:00!) *** If so, it would be the fastest day in the history of California cross country running --- easily the fastest! ***(Yes! It was the fastest day in CA history!)***

Further analysis yields these two final conclusions:

1) Loyola was the only team at the CIF-SS Finals to run a conversion time (in relation to Woodward Park) that is better than the sub-80:15 minute we quoted in the post above. Not surprisingly, Loyola moved into the national rankings at #11 -- and they might be slightly better than that.

The only other team to have a conversion better than 80:15 this year was Long Beach Poly before the CIF-SS Finals. Not surprisingly, Poly was the only CA ranked ranked in the nation before the CIF-SS Finals. See the pattern? By the way, we definitely see a few teams ready to break 80:15 on Saturday. (Post-state meet note: all six projected teams came through!)

2) Nearly a dozen girls teams are in the vicinity of the conversion range for the 96:30 standard for the girls. So why aren't more CA girls teams nationally ranked? Partly, we think it is because Marc Bloom doesn't put too much talent in from a single state. It could also be that he's waiting to see how they fare on the Woodward Park course, which hasn't changed to the degree Mt. SAC has in recent years.

As many of you know, the conversion times for boys and girls are different from each other when comparing the Mt. SAC course to the Woodward Park course. The general and well-accepted feeling on that is that boys cope better on the hills of Mt. SAC than the girls do, making for a whacked out conversion standard. Research tends to support this. Hope I didn't open a can of worms with that one.

See, aren't national rankings fun and easy to figure out???!!!

Take care! Enjoy the meet!

Rich Gonzalez

BELOW LISTS UPDATED THE DAY AFTER THE 2002 CA STATE MEET!

The all-time lists follow below!

All-Time Boys Team Time List
("Top 10" performances list included)
1. Mead, Spokane, Wa 1993 77:22 National champions!
2. Thousand Oaks, 1993 77:59 Ranked #3 in U.S.
3. Arroyo, El Monte 1987 78:23 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
4. Bingham, South Jordan, Ut 1994 78:26 Ranked #4 in U.S.
5. Thousand Oaks 1994 78:46 Ranked #2 in U.S.
6. Camarillo 1989 78:50 National champions!
----Arroyo 1987 78:51 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
8. Loyola, Los Angeles 2002 79:00 WE AWAIT THE 2002 FINAL RANKINGS!
9. Jesuit, Sacramento 1985 79:05 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
----Thousand Oaks 1994 79:09 Ranked #2 in U.S.
-----------10 performances-------------
11. Jesuit, Sacramento 2002 79:13WE AWAIT THE 2002 FINAL RANKINGS! 12.Rubidoux, Riverside 2002 79:15 WE AWAIT THE 2002 FINAL NATL RANKINGS! 13.Walnut 1987 1987 79:16 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
14 . Campbell County, Gillette, Wy 1990 79:17 Ranked #3 in U.S.
15. Mission Bay, San Diego 1993 79:20 Ranked #15 in U.S.

16. Dana Hills, Dana Point 1988 79:21 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
17. Hart, Newhall 1991 79:22 National champions!
18. El Dorado, Placentia 1982 79:26 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
19. Hart, Newhall 1992 79:29 Ranked #4 in U.S.
20 . Arroyo, El Monte 1986 79:30 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
20. Jesuit, Sacramento 1993 79:30 Ranked #13 in U.S.
22. Bellarmine, San Jose 1986 79:31 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
23. Camarillo 1980 79:33 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
23. Mead, Spokane, Wa 1992 79:33 National champions!
25. Bingham, South Jordan, Ut 1991 79:35 Ranked #4 in U.S.
26. Casa Roble, Orangevale 1986 79:38 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
27. Jesuit, Sacramento 1995 79:38 Ranked #6 in U.S.

28. Don Lugo, Chino 2002 79:39 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!

29. Agoura 1989 79:44 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
30. Dana Hills, Dana Point 2002 79:45 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!

31. Long Beach Poly 1997 79:46 Ranked #4 in U.S.
32 . Don Lugo, Chino 1999 79:47 Ranked #8 in U.S.
33 . Viewmont, Bountiful, Ut 1991 79:49 Ranked #2 in U.S.
34 . Nevada Union, Grass Valley 1997 79:59 Ranked #8 in U.S.

All-Time Girls Team Time List
("Top 10" performances list included)
1. Sultana 2002 91:56 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!

2. Murrieta Valley, Murrieta 2002 93:01 WE AWAIT THE FINAL RANKINGS!

3. Peninsula 2000 93:04 Ranked #5 in U.S.
4 . Agoura 1991 93:06 National champions!
5 . Yucaipa 1997 93:08 National champions!
6 . Agoura 1990 93:25 Ranked #2 in U.S.
-----Agoura 1990 93:28 Ranked #2 in U.S.
7. Montgomery 2000 93:29 Ranked #14 in U.S.
8 . Nordhoff, Ojai 1995 93:57 Ranked #5 in U.S.
9 . Palos Verdes 1986 94:02 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
-------------10 performances----------------

10 . Costa Mesa 1980 94:04 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.

11. Buchanan, 2000 94:04 Ranked #17 in U.S.
12. San Lorenzo Valley, Felton 1999 94:09 Ranked #14 in U.S.

12. Thousand Oaks 2002 94:09 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!
14. Yucaipa 1996 94:13 Ranked #3 in U.S.
14. Clovis 1996 94:13 Not ranked!

15. Bend, Oregon 1992 94:32 National champions!
16. Agoura 1989 94:35 Ranked #2 in U.S.
17. Palos Verdes 1987 94:37 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
18. Edison, Huntington Beach 1991 94:38 Ranked #6 in U.S.
19. Hesperia 1987 94:44 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
20 . Agoura 1992 95:03 Ranked #2 in U.S.

21. Dana Hills, Dana Point 2002 95:04 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!
22 . Yucaipa 1995 95:09 Ranked #4 in U.S.
23. Peninsula, Rolling Hills 1991 95:10 Ranked #8 in U.S.

24. Montgomery, Santa Rosa 2002 95:12 WE AWAIT THE FINAL RANKINGS!
25. Sultana 2000 95:15 Ranked #20 in U.S.

25. Ventura 2002 95:15 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!

25. Royal, Simi Valley 2002 95:15 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!
28. San Pasqual, Escondido 1990 95:17 Ranked #4 in U.S.
29. Tustin 1983 95:22 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
30 . Agoura 1987 95:23 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
31 . Clayton Valley, Concord 1995 95:28 Ranked #7 in U.S.
32 . Mountain View, Orem, Ut 1993 95:35 Ranked #2 in U.S.
32 . San Lorenzo Valley 2000 95:35 Ranked #22 in U.S.

32. Peninsula, Rolling Hills Estates 2002 95:35 WE AWAIT THE FINAL RANKINGS!
35 . Palos Verdes 1989 95:36 Not ranked!
36 . Dana Hills 2000 95:37 Not ranked!
37. San Pasqual, Escondido 1991 95:42 Ranked #10 in U.S.
38. Nordhoff 2000 95:45 Not ranked!

39. St. Francis, Sacramento 2002 95:47 WE AWAIT THE FINAL RANKINGS!
40 . Palos Verdes 1986 95:48 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
40. Clovis 1996 95:48 Not ranked!
42. Carondelet, Concord 1996 95:52 Not ranked!
42. Irvine 1998 95:52 Ranked #7 in U.S.
42. Rancho Bernardo, San Diego 1999 95:52 Ranked #21 in U.S.
45. Bend, Or 1991 95:53 Ranked #2 in U.S.
46 . Woodbridge, Irvine 1999 95:54 Ranked #6 in U.S.
47 . Peninsula, Rolling Hills 1993 95:55 Ranked #23 in U.S.
48. Tustin 1981 95:57 No Harrier national rankings existed before 1989.
48. Irvine 1993 95:57 Ranked #13 in U.S.
50. La Canada 1998 95:58 Ranked #9 in U.S.
50. Fountain Valley 2000 95:58 Not ranked!

52. Villa Park 2002 95:59 WE AWAIT THE FINAL NATIONAL RANKINGS!
52. Nordhoff, Ojai 1996 95:59 Not ranked!

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