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| 11/21/09 at Bear Branch Park, The Woodlands TX Arkansas - Louisiana - Oklahoma - Texas - Mississippi
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Boerne to be the best? The big question in TX showdown In an NXN regional that's almost all one state, Boerne boys vs. 5A powers, girls battle of "Kingwoods," and Lutz's domination are top storylines; Sveinsson's absence changes girls individual battle
Preview by SteveU
Given that the Nike Cross Nationals South Regional is traditionally dominated by Texas teams and individuals, both in terms of quality and quantity of entrants, there are usually three factors that can create competitive interest in an event that always has the potential to simply duplicate the preceding week’s Texas 5A state meet.
- 1. Are there any good matchups between teams or individuals of the different Texas classes – typically 4A and 5A – that may not have met (or met often) this year and could have a real showdown?
- 2. Are there any really good teams or individuals from the small surrounding states (AR, MS, LA, OK), or the non-public Texas schools (either T.A.P.P.S. or SPC), that will make an impact and break up the hold of the big TX public schools?
- 3. Are there any scenarios of teams or individuals that really underperformed in the TX state meet that could shake things up with their quest for redemption?
The answers?
- 1. Absolutely yes – The best of these is the Boys Championship showdown between TX 4A champ Boerne Champion and the TX 5A powers – led by state champ (and 4-time NXN qualifier) The Woodlands, but also including previous US#1 Cedar Park (3rd at state), and 5A runner-up Klein Oak. Boerne Champion has beaten everyone they’ve faced this year and had the best overall team title at state … AND they beat the 5A powers at Nike South, though Cedar Park only raced a partial team. The Girls Championship should also has a 4A vs. 5A flavor to it with respective champs Kingwood Park and Kingwood set up for a very close battle – along with former SO#1 College Park and others also in the hunt.
- 2. Some, but not what could have been – The big story here, of course, would have been Greenhill TX (private school) standout, defending NXN South and NXN Finals champ, and US#2 harrier Chelsey Sveinsson finally racing many of the public-school stars – including The Woodlands sr and repeat 5A champ Sarah Andrews. But it was announced mid-week that Sveinsson had withdrawn, leaving Andrews as the favorite, followed mostly by other TX 5A stars. St. Thomas Aquinas LA star Malia Cali is the most intriguing non-Texas contender. The team battles, on both the boys and girls sides, should be dominated by TX 4A and 5A schools. Same with the boys individual fight.
- 3. Nothing huge, but definitely some here and there – For the boys, some have thought previous Cedar Park has been overrated all year; others point to the illnesses and injuries the team has suffered. After their 3rd at 5A state last week, they would certainly like to move up, while their #1 Parker Stinson might hope to work his way closer to 5A runaway winner and US#2 Craig Lutz of Marcus TX. Flower Mound TX sr Connor Adams (defeated Lutz early in the season en route to a US#7 ranking, but was 7th in 5A state) and Klein Oak sr Ryan Dohner (2nd at Nike South, but just 11th at 5A state) may also be looking for redemption.
For the girls, College Park TX was ranked SO#1 last month after winning their own loaded invite, but was 2nd by 30 points to Kingwood at 5A state. Vista Ridge TX sr Ashley Isham, an NXN and Foot Locker Finalist last year, was just 14th at 5A state.
Breaking down the team and individual battles
Girls Individuals – No Sveinsson, but returnees still dominate
There’s no question the meet lost big marquee value with Sveinsson’s withdrawal. It was here last fall that the Greenhill junior began to really make a name for herself as a harrier on a national scale. Yes, she had qualified for Foot Locker Finals as a freshman. Yes, she had spectacular showings the following winter and spring at NIN and Penn Relays. But until she defeated Sarah Andrews here at the 2008 NXN South Champs, she was not considered truly someone to beat nationally.
Of course, two weeks later, Sveinsson set the CR at Portland Meadows, beating Andrews again, and followed that up with a 4th at Foot Locker Finals. Then came an outdoor track season where she beat all preps she faced and doubled NON with US#1s in the mile and 2M – all of which set her up this fall as the start-of-season US#1 in XC. Saturday was to be her first real test – racing Andrews again – as her infrequent major meets to date had included only non-competitive wins at the Cowboy Shootout (still a super 10:31 2M) and Chile Pepper (a so-so for her 17:32 5k).
Unfortunately, it was announced earlier this week that Sveinsson would pass up this meet with the reported reason being a “minor” leg injury that she hoped would heal in time for next week’s Foot Locker South. Sveinsson was not necessarily planning on an NXN Finals/Foot Locker Finals double anyway, but that was always a possibility as long as she ran in Houston.
Sveinsson’s absence in the girls field means that the favorite’s role falls to Andrews, last year’s NXN South and NXN Finals runner-up. Andrews, following a strong track season that included a Pan Am Jr 5k title, started the season in tremendous fashion, breaking Courtney Babcock’s CR at the Woodbridge Invite in California. But a mid-season illness held her out of a few meets, and her performances since have been strong, but not at the breathtaking level of Woodbridge. Last week, at the 5A TX state meet, she held off up-and-coming junior Rachel Johnson of Plano, with a best-of-meet 10:45 to 10:49 3200.
Johnson, in turn, has been one of the season’s revelations. She was unbeaten until state, having dominated the Southlake Carroll and Nike South invites (sans Andrews). She did not compete here last year.
Andrews and Johnson head up the list of top individual contenders for the five qualifying spots – though it’s possible Andrews could also head up a qualifying squad from The Woodlands, if they can improve from their 4th in the 5A race last week. With nearly all of the top girls from Texas entered, plus a few out of state talents, the battle for the five individual spots will be VERY competitive. Amazingly, 9 of the top 10 finishers from last year’s NXN South were non-seniors and all – save Sveinsson – are expected to toe the line Saturday.
- Heritage TX jr Aly Nielson – An eye-opening 3rd here last year (17:31.10) behind Sveinsson and Andrews, Nielson went on to place an impressive 10th at NXN Finals. She has since been a little off the radar in TX this fall, with the aforementioned talents and Johnson having eaten up most of the headlines, but she was 4th in the 5A state race behind Andrews, Johnson, and Amanda Russell.
- Vista Ridge TX seniors Amanda Russell and Ashley Isham – The previously mentioned Russell and Isham have been a powerful 1-2 punch for the last few years, taking 4-5 here in ’08, then going on to make Foot Locker Finals as well and competed in both national meets. While Russell ran well last week, Isham was a disappointing 14th, but never count out these two.
- Belton TX sr Regan Tindell – When Tindell crossed the line in Portland last fall in 12th place, it gave Texas an amazing four girls in the top dozen – and that after grabbing the final qualifying spot in 8th overall from NXN South. That tabbed her as one to really watch this fall, but like Nielson, she hasn’t really built on that yet. Still, she has continued to be competitive in a very competitive state, and was 6th in the 5A state. Also 2nd at Nike South and Chile Pepper.
- Klein TX jr Hillary Montgomery – Didn’t compete in this meet last year, but like Johnson, has been in the improvement fast track. After taking 4th in the tough Region 2-5A meet, she impressed even further with 5th at 5A state.
- Ft. Worth Boswell TX sr Maggie Escobar – 10th at NXN South last year and this fall’s 4A state champ, she was the best at UIL outside of the 5A girls and 5th fastest overall.
- Elkins AR sr Grace Heymsfield, Elkins – The sole NXN qualifier from this region last year that was not from Texas was Heymsfield, who was 7th, is the #6 returnee, and was also 44th at NXN Finals. She claimed the 3A title in Arkansas a few weeks ago.
Newcomers
- St. Thomas Aquinas LA sr Malia Cali – It might seem that with all those returnees, that there’s no room for any newcomers, but no one should sleep on the possibility of Cali qualifying in style. Running her first NXN race, the 2008 NSIC 2M champ will try and earn her first national meet appearance in XC after missing FL Finals from FL South the past two seasons. Cali is unbeaten this year with her one major out-of-state outing being a fast win at the Mobile Challenge of Champs.
- Conway AR sr Erika Setzler – The Arkansas 7A champ was fastest overall in the state and took a strong 4th at Chile Pepper, six seconds behind Tindell and ahead of Escobar and Heymsfield.
Five other state champions are entered, thought it will be extremely tough for any of them to make the top 10, let alone the top five, with the rest of the talent in the field:
- Becca Blubaugh (Airline, LA - 5A)
- Kayla Stricker (Oak Grove, MS - 6A)
- Jessica Hembree (Tahlequah, OK - 5A)
- Laurie Byrd (Round Top-Carmine, TX - 1A)
- Shannon Klenke (Duchesne, TX/T.A.P.P.S. - 5A)
Girls Teams – Another battle of Houston?
Sixteen teams will battle in the Girls Championship for the two Portland berths, including the top six in the latest DyeStat ESPN RISE South Top 10 (plus #9), and two more bubble teams. But it should really come down to three north suburban Houston-area teams, all within a few miles of this course.
And the two qualifiers WILL be from Texas – since there are no non-Texas entries.
Qualifiers in 2004 and 2005, SO#1 Kingwood hopes to have its first team qualify in the new format after a three-year hiatus. The squad is the slight favorite by merit of its 5A championship in Texas last weekend. Led by Rosemary Steup (4th in scoring) and Sophie Blake (5th), Kingwood won by 30 points over previous SO#1 (now #2) College Park. Southlake Carroll was 3rd, another 17 points back, and The Woodlands 4th.
College Park had beaten Kingwood by 7 points in their first meeting, at the PUMA College Park Invite, back in mid-October. But at state, Kingwood beat College Park at nearly every spot where they had previously lost to them.
The Woodlands won NXN South last year with 70 points, then Cinco Ranch prevailed in a tight battle for 2nd with 106, to Kingwood Park’s 108, Vista Ridge’s 111, and Southlake Carroll’s 113. But The Woodlands and Cinco Ranch don’t have the same combination of top-end talent and depth as last year. Vista Ridge has a big dropoff after its top two and while Southlake Carroll qualified the first four years of NXN, easily the best track record for the region, they are a longshot this time.
Kingwood Park, however, has stepped up big in 4A. They had the best overall team time of the day in the entire Texas state meet, scoring 45 to win by 38 in their class over Highland Park. They scored 2-3-5-10 for their first four, led by soph Zahri Jackson and junior Nicole Aponte, 3rd and 4th overall. They lost their top girl from last year’s effort at NXN South, Bree Schrader, who transferred to College Park. But Aponte is new, Jackson has really improved, and other returnees and newcomers have stepped up as well.
Boys Individuals – Lutz should lead parade of TX 5A stars
As a soph last fall, Lutz was the dominant runner in Texas before Reed Connor woke up and started a season-ending surge to the NXN title. Lutz was still 3rd at state, 3rd at NXN South, and 5th at NXN Finals. Last spring, the Marcus prodigy won the Texas Relays 3200, then saw his season compromised by an injury. This fall saw him lose an early season race to Connor Adams as he worked his way back into shape.
But now Lutz has had a stunning string of performances that has propelled him to a US#2 ranking and a chance to close this season, finally, at truly peak form.
- 1st Nike South, 15:35.7 in mud, beating Ryan Dohner, Parker Stinson
- 1st District 6-5A, ridiculous 14:50.49 in mud, beating Connor Adams by 42 seconds, Neal Smith by a minute
- 1st Region I-5A, 14:37 3M, beating Adams by 39 seconds, and several other state contenders by far more
- 1st TX 5A State, 14:45.24 5k, winning by 23 seconds over Mark Pinales
The skein is not unlike the red-hot sequence Connor had last fall en route to an NXN title. Lutz is, no doubt, the heavy favorite Saturday.
The five NXN finals qualifiers are likely to come from the top Texas 5A runners. If Boerne Champion and The Woodlands hold last week’s form from state – with their teams having strong packs and no superstars at the top – then expect the list of individual qualifiers to Portland to go no more than five deep on the finishers list. The top contenders:
- Cedar Park TX senior Parker Stinson – With the illnesses he and his Cedar Park teammates have suffered, it’s likely this was not the season Stinson envisioned after he won the 5A track 3200 in 8:54.70, the best time of the year in TX. After several early season wins, he’s been 3rd at Nike South, 2nd at District, 1st at Region, and 3rd at 5A state. He has basically traded wins and losses with Mark Pinales and Ryan Dohner. Still, the talent is there and Stinson should be in strong form this week, with a great chance for the top three or possibly to lead a qualifying team if his mates can rise to the occasion. He was 7th here last year and is the #2 returnee.
- Round Rock TX junior Mark Pinales – With his runner-up finish in 5A state last week, Pinales is definitely the revelation of the year in Texas for boys. Who would have thought at season’s start that he’d beat Stinson, Adams, Dohner, Arnier, Smith and all the rest? Pinales did not run here last year. He ran 9:15 for 3200 last spring and did not make state in track. But his improvement became apparent in an early-season runner-up showing against Stinson. At Nike South, he was 4th, but then beat Stinson at District. Stinson and Dohner got him back at region, but Pinales had everyone’s number but Lutz’s at state.
- Klein Oak TX senior Ryan Dohner – Despite his disappointing 11th last week at 5A state, don’t sleep on Dohner. A better indication of his talents came with his runner-up finish at Nike South, and close 2nd behind Stinson (and ahead of Pinales) at region. He is also the #3 returnee from last year’s NXN South after placing 9th overall. Dohner also had the #3 3200 time of all TX non-seniors last spring at 9:04.17 – which is also 3rd best among all of Saturday’s entrants. Also, given the way Klein Oak is coming on as a team, it’s not impossible at all that they could claim a team qualifier – they were just 12 points behind The Woodlands in 2nd last week.
- Arlington Lamar sr Jeff Arnier – Arnier first really made waves in a narrow 3-second defeat to Lutz early in the season. He was just 9th at Nike South and 6th in Region 1-5A, but came on for an impressive 4th at 5A state.
- Flower Mound sr Connor Adams – With an early-season win over Lutz and a series of victories and fast times, Adams was the hot new face on the Texas and national scene. It turned out, however, that Lutz was only a shadow of what he would become and Adams wound up at the effect of (and well beaten by) his blazing performances at district and region. At 5A state, Adams was 7th, but don’t count him out just yet on Saturday.
- Lubbock Coronado jr Donovan Torres – Torres gained significant notice with a narrow defeat to Adams at the McNeill Invite – which came after Adams had beaten Lutz and gained a high ranking. The rest of his season was solid; he was a well-beaten 5th at Region I-5A, but a stronger 5th at 5A state.
- Two other 5A standouts who should be fighting for at least the top 10 if not the top 5 are Northside Stevens’ Jacob Benn and Southlake Carroll’s Neal Smith.
Other state champs competing:
- Chris Marchman, Sheridan, AR 6A (1st AR-OK All-star)
- Andrew Evans, Shiloh Christian, AR 4A
- Christian Heymsfield, Elkins, AR 3A
- Mitch Landry, Haughton, LA 4A
- Max Holman, Tupelo, MS 6A
- Nathan Christianson, Boerne Champion, TX 4A
- Nick Guerra, East Bernard, TX 2A
- Travis Roberts, Sanderson, TX 1A
- Dennis Hodapp, St Michael, TX TAPPS 5A
Boys Teams – Boerne challenges the big boys
With Sveinsson out on the girls side, the most intrigue and excitement is how TX 4A powerhouse Boerne Champion will fare against 5A powers The Woodlands, Klein Oak and Cedar Park.
With its 1-2 punch of Nathan Christianson and Travis Barclay, and five in the top 15 overall, Boerne hung a ridiculous 30-point score on the 4A field, a gaping 90 points ahead of El Paso Jefferson. Their avg. time of 15:49.42 was also ahead of The Woodlands’ 15:55.64, adding to their argument as the state’s top squad after their Nike South victory.
Last year at NXN South, Bourne Champion was 3rd with 106, trailing Cedar Park (98), and The Woodlands (71). This looks like the year they get in for one of the two spots.
As for The Woodlands, they don’t have the top end talent they did last year with Reed Connor or even Drew Butler (who was more a middle-distance star). But they still have a talented group, led by Tom Sanderson, and they still have the mind-boggling depth and numbers that The Woodlands always has.
At the 5A state meet last week, Cedar Park had the best three with Stinson, Austin Geerts, and Jay McIllece. But a minute gap between their 3rd and 4th was too much to overcome. If they can close that back up, they’ll be in the hunt.
Klein Oak, on the other hand, tested The Woodlands even further, finishing just 12 points back – and that was with Dohner having an off day. Six of those points were lost on the 5th man as well – a spot where TWH will be virtually impossible to beat. But if Klein Oak can get a good race from Dohner and close the gaps at 2-3 or 5, they’ll be right there, too.
The Woodlands, however, can point to having won despite Ross Moulder having an off day. And while 1-2 runners having an off day could doom Klein Oak or Cedar Park, it won’t have the same effect on the defending champs.
Boerne’s depth isn’t quite as awe-inspiring, but they have a great top two – clearly the best #2 man in the war – and a tight 3-4-5.
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