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Arcadia Invitational
41st version of largest outdoor high school meet in the US.
April 11-12, 2008 - Arcadia CA High School
DyeStat on-site coverage
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A Dozen Arcadia Plotlines to Follow This Weekend
By SteveU, DyeStat News Editor
1. Will German drop the bomb? – It would be simple to use a “plotline” like “Who will win the boys 3200,” or “how fast will it go?” Yes, there are at least three superstars in this race – Luke Puskedra, Dominic Channon, and German Fernandez. But we have a pretty good idea what kind of shape Puskedra is in (see Nike Indoor) and we really have a pretty fair idea about New Zealand’s Channon (he’s run 8:09.61 3k, but finished 28 seconds behind Fernandez at World XC). So what is really the biggest question? It’s whether German will show that he has the ability to beat a great field and crack a really good time on the oval – earning him the respect he probably deserves outside of California. The hardcore cynics gave some grudging acknowledgement to his record Cali. state XC win, and taking the USATF XC Jr. Trials, but point out how he got outrun at Foot Locker. The 8:53.6 3200 he laid down as part of a league meet quadruple was eye-opening, but questioned by those same cynics. German himself has said he wants to give Jeff Nelson’s 29-year-old USR a serious shot. This is a good chance to shut up the naysayers for good.
2. Is Jordan finally ready for sub-10? – When Jordan Hasay steps to the line for the girls 2M Saturday, some may look at it like a repeat of last year – with a fit Hasay stepping to the line after passing on the World Cross and 10:00 staring her in the face. But note the differences: Last year, Hasay had dealt with a long struggle as whether to attend that Kenyan world cross meet before pulling out; this time, the call was made in advance. Last year, Jordan dropped a pair of 10:04 3200s before the meet, plus a 4:39 1600, and there was plenty of attendant pressure with the race being changed to 2M and the sub-10 attempt hyped; this year, no 3200s in the bank (though a few 3ks) and no hype. Jordan’s best run to date has been a 4:42.50 1600, so is her fitness as good? The thing is, she was fit enough to do it last year, but pacing was always an issue, as was timing. Maybe this year, things are aligned for the feat to finally occur.
3. Hasay Question 2: Will she get pushed in the deuce? – When Foot Locker champ Ashley Brasovan first said she would come west, she had just won her national title and, with a 10:13 3200 from the previous spring, looked like the candidate to drop a huge Arcadia time. But she has suffered back injury problems that caused her to bypass Nike Indoor and stay out of racing until a 10:33 last week. A sub-10:30 certainly seems attainable, but sub-10:10 looks out of reach until she’s had more chance to train and race. The other candidate for sub-10:10 would be Christine Babcock, who could run the mile, the deuce, or both. A fresh Babcock could certainly push Hasay and give folks the matchup they never got in XC. There’s also World XC performer Laurynne Chetelat, who is the only prep to beat Hasay over 3200, when she topped her, 10:23-10:30 in Sacramento last spring (Hasay had already run the 1600). But is Laurynne a sub-10:10 runner? Stay tuned.
4. How good is Blake Shaw? – How fast is 1:49.41? How fast is 1:49.41 in March? Yeah, buddy, it’s big time. But to get some perspective, you have to remember the Texas calendar. Athletes are going to drop the big times that early in a state that has its state meet in early May. Few of them, even the great ones, will make it to Nike Outdoor, but then guys like Blake will often come back in summer track and run times that make the top 10 lists. Given that districts are already going on in the Lone Star State, it’s a big deal that Arcadia management got Shaw out here. A quick glance shows that just three runners have broken 1:48.5 this decade. If Shaw is ready for something like that, or better, it would probably make for the best boys running event outside of the deuce in this meet. And he'll likely be pushed by James Eichberger AZ and a few others.
5. Is Nico ready for a new PR? – Not too many people realize it, but when Spencer McCorkel and Nico Weiler both went over 17-6 last year, it was only the 2nd time in prep history that two vaulters have done so in one year. The other time was 1981. McCorkel is vaulting in college now, but Nico is enjoying his senior year. The 17-06.50 mark, however, has remained – through summer, winter, and this spring, so far – as his PR. There have been plenty of jumps at 16-06, 17-00, and 17-02, but the PR stands. Can Nico finally surpass the barrier and start working toward 18 feet? Arcadia would be a good place to start.
6. Which Purvis will be the most impressive? – Sisters Ashton and Julian could arguably be THE two leading lights for girls running events this side of a mile. There could be arguments or upsets, but their case is solid. Both are World Youth Games medalists. Ashton was dominant most of the winter in the 60 and 200, while Julian recently popped a legal US-leading 13.81 in the 100H (and has a PR of 13.32). So who will put up the best performance. The younger sister is the favorite in both the 100 and 200, but the older sis will have Dahlys Marshall and Brianna Stewart to contend with. Marshall beat Julian at Stanford last week – even though the time was slower than 14 seconds after Julian had put up the best qualifier.
7. What kind of 5k can Chris Derrick run? – It’s a bit of a stretch, but those wondering how those incredibly fast times at the magical, mystical Detwiller XC course in Illinois translate to the track will finally have some numbers to work with, however limited. Chris Derrick, who won IL state on that course last fall with a 13:50 3M that was basically the best-ever there, will doing almost the same distance (5k) on the track Saturday in the first-ever running of the distance at Arcadia. Derrick has said he’s not putting pressure on himself for a big time, but he has a lot of pride and would like to produce a mark that would make his fellow distance stars in the deuce take notice. He won’t exactly be lacking for competition, either, with Jersey stars Brandon Jarrett and Doug Smith both capable of beating him on a good day. Jarrett was under 9:00 at NIN and Smith ran 14:40 for 5k on the track last spring. Under 14:30 would be solid for the NTN champ; sub-14:20 pretty darn good; and sub-14:10 would get people excited.
8. Can Akawkaw catch Jasmine? – Girls track fans dreamed during the fall and winter of what could have been the greatest prep girls 4x400 in history, with 53-second talents Turquoise Thompson, Jasmine Joseph, and Akawkaw Ndipagbor all lining up for Long Beach Poly. Thompson transferred, but the school is still a powerhouse. In the open 400, though, it will be intriguing to see if Joseph (53.15 PR and #1 53.95 this spring), a junior, can continue to stay ahead of her freshman teammate (53.73 PR, not under 54 this spring). If both could PR, that would put them in the running with the Purvises for the girls sprint stars of the meet.
9. Are there any Nellums in the crowd? – Last year here saw the serious beginning of a long year of incredible races and top honors for Bryshon Nellum, who lit it up at 200, 400 and on the relays all spring long. Proof that perhaps a Nellum only comes along once in a while, there is no one within a shout of his times on the horizon here. But there are young talents preparing to step up. Watch Californians Charles Saseun, Randall Carroll, Chris Owusu, and out-of-staters Dominick Roberts (CO) and Allante Battle (AZ) to see who breaks out and perhaps launches a championship season.
10. Is Dayshan Ragans ready to become the next big California thrower? – This meet’s historians could tell you for sure, but the list of boys throwers who have hit big PRs here over 200 feet in the discus (or over 60 feet in the shot) surely must be long and distinguished. The discus circle is particularly inviting here; Darius Savage cracked 200 here en route to a fine season two years ago. This year’s big guy on the cusp of greatness is Dayshun Ragans. While many of the other nation’s best throwers hit the indoor circuit hard, Ragans is just getting warmed up. Although a few others beat his mark indoors, Ragans is the leading shot returnee (64-01) and is already #2 in the US in the discus this spring (197-05). Don’t be surprised at all if he’s the next to hit the big 2-0-0.
11. Where will the best girls relay performance come from? – Unlike past years, when there’s been established relay powers in the short or long relays – like an already-heralded Eleanor Roosevelt or Corona del Mar group in the middle or long relays – this year’s groups really features a lot of teams that are reestablishing themselves after losses to graduation or transfers, or just haven’t hit the ultra-elite yet. Does Long Beach Poly have 45-second or 3:40 potential in the 4x1 or 4x4? Will Westfield VA, Xavier Prep AZ, or Corona del Mar threaten 9:00 in the 4x800? What can Saugus, Corona, or Crescenta Valley do in the DMR or 4xMile? Maybe the best marks will come in the less-heralded sprint medley and shuttle hurdle relays, where James Logan is loaded in all three events.
12. Will Danbury CT rule the distance relays? – The award for most intriguing out-of-state group for this year probably goes to these guys. The distance crew from this Connecticut powerhouse looks truly formidable after their indoor success, led by 4:13 1600 man Willie Ahearn, 2:28 1k standout Parker Boudreau, and versatile distanceman Matt Terry. The peak of their efforts was probably the killer 17:28 4xMile they produced to win the NSIC title last month. In the DMR, they “merely” went 10:07 last spring, without losing to graduation. Look for them this weekend, and at the end of the season – along with (not at this meet) Neuqua Valley IL and Southlake Carroll TX (already 7:46 4x800 and 10:02 DMR) – to be the best distance relay quartet in the country.
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