Boys - The National Scene:
Let’s start with two state-meet clashes of definite Foot Locker Top Ten contenders last Saturday. There’s an old saying that ends with “fooled me twice, shame on me,” or something like that. With a second victory over his friendly rival Sandy Roberts, this time at the North Carolina 4A state meet, Jack Bolas has justified an ol’ switcheroo in my rankings between the two experienced FL finalists.
Showing his finishing speed, Bolas outsprinted Roberts in the final 100 meters and won, 15:34-15:39. “Jack’s got a hell of a kick,” his coach, Ron Olsen told the Chapel Hill News. “He’s just got to be close enough to use it, and he was close enough.”
Roberts, who reportedly didn’t go all out in his regional loss to Bolas last week, made no excuses. The Broughton senior said he tried to break Bolas, but couldn’t. The winner, whose Chapel Hill team could get an NTN invite, would have tough 3-week triple if he goes for it, though.
Kenny Klotz will have a similar, but different situation. He led his team to the Oregon 4A title by beating rival Issac Stoutenburgh of Crater, 15:35-15:56. Catholic Central finished NW#1 and has accepted an invitation to NTN. Klotz, then, will have to be one of the top two finishers from teams from the FL West states to earn a return bid to San Diego. Right now, that’s his plan and it looks like he has a very good shot at doing that.
Stoutenburgh had earned a big-time win over Klotz and Washington’s Jeff Helmer at the Jim Danner meet, but this time it was the Ram senior taking clear control past midrace after a nice taper in the weeks leading up to it. “At two miles I just kind of took off … then held on from there,” Klotz told DyeStat Senior Editor Marc Davis.
Catholic Central coach Dave Frank gave me a little perspective when he added, “I had the pleasure to be around during Galen's time here, and I believe Kenny's effort on Saturday to be almost the equivalent of Galen's senior year effort.”
So in the next rankings, look for Bolas and Klotz moving up among the top 10.
Meanwhile, things were pretty status quo among the rest of the top contenders.
Californians, like AJ Acosta and the Mercados, are generally in the middle of the league-section prelim-section final “Road to State.” Some of the sections are finishing up this week; all will be done by the 19th.
One athlete who ruled his state without question all year long is PA’s Craig Miller, who finished in fine fashion last Saturday in Hershey by pounding out a 15:30 and winning by four seconds. Victory was bittersweet, though, as his team lost by a single point (though they weren’t a clear pre-race favorite).
This weekend should mark coronations for two Southern stars who are FL veterans, Michael Eaton in KY and Justin Harbor in FL, though the latter will probably get more competition.
Regionally Speaking …
… Here’s some of what’s going on:
Midwest: This was the big finale in the region with five state meets (MO, MN, MI, OH, IL), and as there was only one where I had begun to have a clear favorite, I was fascinated to see how it would all turn out … The state with the clear fave was Michigan, where I watched Landon Peacock of Cedar Springs lead the D2 race by as much as 16 seconds at 2M before settling for a 15:10-15:19 win over Patrick Grosskopf of Corunna. While Landon has to move up on my list, anyone else from the Wolverine state is going to be a really long shot, even with several others between 15:19 and 15:40. Grosskopf, however, has just enough front-running stones that he might be able to get out there and hang on. He will not get left behind early, that’s for sure …
Our NTN Regional Editor Scotty Bush told me Winnebago senior Jeremy Stevens was going to be the class of the IL state meet and, sure enough, his 14:18 3M in winning the ‘A’ race by 14 seconds was the performance of the day. He was the No. 6 returnee from the MW, but has really had a better season than all those ahead of him except Mohamud Ige, CO. In my eyes, he’s right up there now behind Ige with Brock Hagerman, IN. It couldn’t have hurt that he reportedly got all kinds of post-race pointers from surprise 2002 FL national champ and fellow Illinoisan Matt Withrow … The AA race was a war, with the first 10 finishing within 11 seconds. Steve Finley (14:21) got the title, followed by Ryan Craven, and Evan Jager. Names like Matt and Eric Dettman, Jesse Luciano, and Bruce McTaggart filled the second half of that group. I suspect you could have gotten several different winners from a race with that top ten at any given point of the season, so how they’ll do in Kenosha is anyone’s guess. But you can bet they ALL think they have a chance and that counts for something in a race where you have to get up there or get swallowed alive …
Surprisingly enough, MN came through about like I thought it would, with Mike Torchia of Rochester Lourdes easily winning the ‘A’ race in 15:29, then Elliot Heath and TC Lumbar going 1-2 in AA with slightly slower times of 15:36 and 15:38. I still think Torchia’s a top-five guy, but so competitive will it be that the others are going to have to really have super days to make it. A keen observer in MN tells me to look out for Willmar standouts Kaafi Adeyes and Abdi Awale, who will be leading their team to NTN, but also running FL MW. “These two talented runners of Somali heritage are soccer players first and foremost up until now, at least,” he says, “and if they train hard and serious for this which they should be doing since they've got a date with the NTN, they could surprise.” …
OH has some solid runners this year, but there’s no Jeff See or Levi Fox (1-2 in FL MW last year), I don’t think. Chad Balyo of Springboro, the D1 winner in 15:32, was the best of the day – as anticipated. I think he’ll have to run the race of his life to make it, though. I expected Ben Brammeier to be the fastest in MO last weekend at their state meet, but it was another FL contender, Josh Mathis of Potosi, who ran away with the Class 3 race in 15:42. Brammeier, though, won Class 4 in 16:00 and will definitely still be gunning for San Diego berth.
West: A quintet of state meets (WA, OR, NM, AZ, NV) dominated the action in this region, too, and while none of them were the dominant Golden State, they bear a closer look … We talked about Klotz and Stoutenburgh already in OR and I really don’t think anyone else has a shot, but we’ll get a better idea after next week’s Border Clash as to whether anyone’s riding a late-season peak …
The other half of the Border Clash equation is, of course, WA. As expected, Jeff Helmer of Henry Jackson was the decisive winner last week in 4A, with a 15:40. In this case, though, I give runner-up Michael Chinchar a longshot chance, or maybe a few of his followers, too. 3A winner Max O’Donoghue-McDonald (15:54) is another to watch …
NM and NV both have solid returnees from last year’s FL West top 35, and they got the job done last weekend. In fact, NM junior Matthew Tebo of Eldorado will probably be battling the leaders at Mt. SAC. He finished his season-long dominance of NM with a 15:40 in 5A, 25 seconds up on teammate Kevin McNally. Ryan McNiff and Simon Gilna also bear watching … The times 16:58 and 17:10 may not seem like much for FL regional contenders, but NV 4A winner Joe Parker and runner-up Daniel Geib came to Mt. SAC last December and finished 26th and 32nd and are the 10th and 12th returnees, so don’t discount them. Marie Lawrence “only” ran 18:28 on the course, to give you an idea.
Is there a Kenny Cormier in AZ this year? Last year’s FL national champ may not have a successor on the boys side (don’t forget about Kari Hardt for the girls, though), but James Bogner was fastest on the day at 16:13 to win 5A-D2. Tolan Thornton, who was the 9:09 revelation at NON last spring, was 2nd in the tough 1A/2A behind Craig Curley, but ahead of favored Weston Jones.
South: THIS is the biggest weekend in the South as TX, FL, AL, KY, and VA hold their state meets. That the aforementioned Michael Eaton will tear up KY and be the only reasonable contender (and in his case, as close to a lock as you can have) from his state for FL South is pretty clear. In AL, there doesn’t appear to be a Robert Bedsole or a Scott Fuqua this year, but 9th-grader Billy Matthews has been cleaning up and certainly could be one of the best freshmen in the region. After that, it gets a lot more interesting. …
In Florida, as we’ve seen, Justin Harbor is the heavy favorite for best of the day and to return to San Diego, but I like James Osborne to give him a battle (for best time; they’ll be in different classes) and then to have a strong chance to qualify. Jonathan Blocker, Steven Bell, and Aaron Kindt are three more to watch for … VA’s top FL South returnees are Brad Siragusa and Patterson Wilhelm, but it is Michael Spooner who is expected to put up the best time at The Plains Saturday and make the best run at a berth. There could be others though, like Devin Cornwall, who could battle to sneak into the FL top ten.
TX is definitely the most intriguing state out there and I can’t wait to see how it all gets sorted out this weekend. The key regional race was 5A-2 where Duncan Phillips of A&M Consolidated (15:29) took the measure of Daniel Gerber (15:34) and Habben Berhame (15:36). That could be three of the best five or so in the state, all classes, right there. Undefeated soph Colby Lowe of Southlake Carroll, who put up the big 14:38 (3M?) early-season and won 5A-1, will be tested on the big stage. … Kyle Goldsmith and Travis Fort (4A) are definitely two more to watch at Round Rock Saturday. …
Last weekend had plenty of action, too, with state meets in NC, SC, GA, MS, TN, and AR. Beyond Bolas and Roberts in NC, however, there’s not a lot that should impact the leaders at FL South. … In NC, the only other real FL contender would be independent schools champ Lewis Woodard. … In SC, Chris Scanlon (15:51) and Chad Holt (15:59) were the class of the public school championship, but independent schools champ Graham Tribble (15:16; No. 14 returnee from FL South 2004) is the most likely to shine at McAlpine.
Ben Hubers has been dominating GA all year and IS a good bet to make the top ten on Nov. 26. The McEachern senior easily won the 5A race at Carrollton, with his 15:29 and longshot contender Jay Heller of Walton’s 15:52 the only sub-16s of the day. … TN’s top three of Rob Sorrell, Clay Hannah, and Todd Smalling will have a shot, too, especially Sorrell. … From the AR state meet Alex Bearden (16:27) is the top contender, while the MS championship revealed Daniel Simpkins (16:05) as the top individual.
I would say this region has a “big four” of Bolas, Roberts, Eaton, and Harbor; for one of them not to make it would be a huge upset. But after that, the next six spots are really wide open, with probably 15-20 good contenders. After this weekend, we’ll know a lot more.
Northeast: Several huge meets will begin the final dissection of the FL NE contenders this week, with state class or group championships in NY, NJ, and MA, plus the New Englands in VT, then more state meets in DE and MD. Whew!
In my mind, there’s 2.5 races to watch here.
The New Englands, of course a great traditional meet, will bring together the best from five states. CT’s Jay Koloseus and Tradelle Ward, NH’s John Schroeder and Alex Hall, and RI’s Tom Webb are clearly the runners to beat and this should be a great clash. Koloseus, who won the CT Open last week in 15:33 is really riding a wave up the FL NE list and I think he’ll win decisively here.
Then the Class AA race in NY will pit most of the state’s best together for a thrilling race to start the long day. It’s kind of like how the Daytona 500, NASCAR’s biggest event, comes at the start of the season! Saratoga’s Steve Murdock is red hot and should prevail in a test with Ben White, Brian Rhodes-Devey, all the Fayetteville-Manlius guys, and other studs. I’m told it should be in the 20s to start the race! … Later, the Class B race with Noel Bateman and Dan Busby will be a barnburner. In fact, they may need to burn a barn to keep warm!
Now, I’m not sure the NJ group meets at Holmdel will be quite the revelatory experience on the boys side that the aforementioned races are. Ben Massam and Craig Forys will be in different races, as will Chris Horel and his CBA teammates. But it will be interesting to see if Horel runs at the level that made him the fastest from the region at Manhattan.
It will also be fun to see how well Steve Duplinsky dominates the MD state meet.
Last week, the biggest meet was the PIAAs where, of course, Miller concluded his state career in fine fashion. I thought Jake Walker would win the Class AA race, but he had a bad day and was fourth. It will be interesting to see if he can bounce back for FL or if those who chased Miller to the tape in AAA (Keith Capecci, Vince McNally, etc.) have a better chance to be outside qualifiers.
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Girls - The National Scene:
Two Midwestern girls caused the biggest rethinking of my national contenders and rankings last week as the season builds to its climax. Meets in New York and New Jersey are likely to have the biggest impact this week (and the next).
First, let’s review:
Minnesotans Elizabeth Yetzer and Bria Wetsch split two head-to-head races early in the season. Since then, however, both girls have had relatively low national profiles. And since Yetzer won that second meeting at Roy Griak, in addition to having the credentials of a Nike Outdoor 2-mile champ and No. 3 returnee, she’s kind of maintained the high national rank while I’ve let Wetsch slide down the list.
Well, I may need to “re-ar-range” things a little bit.
After Yetzer laid down the proverbial gauntlet with a state meet record 14:00 in the AA race, taking down the 14:07 of venerable Olympian Carrie Tollefson, Wetsch responded like the maturing champion she’s becoming. Laying off the torrid pace set by Nikki Swenson in the Class A race, she pushed ahead in the middle and crossed the line in 13:55.
“I really wanted to win,” Wetsch told the Chaska Herald. “I had to work hard and keep going at it.”
Meanwhile, to the west, Betsy Bies, Yankton SD, was taking the line for her first 5k of the season, at the Dakotas USATF meet. All year long she had been winning and breaking (or at least challenging) course records at 4k in and around her state. But she hadn’t faced any real outside competition and, let’s face it, many of us (maybe even me) don’t take the 4k and 2-mile CC times as seriously as we should, like they’ve got a Rodney Dangerfield kind of thing going on or something.
Sixteen minutes and 59 seconds later, Bies was in the chute and right there near the top of the national performance list. Goodbye, 4k credibility issue.
Incidentally, Bies’ and Yetzer’s teams will be headed to NTN. Bies’ graduated teammate Ramsey Kavan did the 3-week triple last year and there’s no indication she and Yetzer won’t try it this year.
In other action, Megan O’Reilly, Mt. Spokane WA, and Marie Lawrence, Reno NV, were taking care of state meet business last weekend. O’Reilly ran 17:25 to win her 4A meet by 35 seconds, while “Mel” was cruising 18:22 and victorious in her 4A by a whopping 1:46.
The other most significant development nationally was regarding someone who didn’t finish a race: Former FL national qualifier Brittany Sedberry, Ocean City NJ, in her sectional meet. Thankfully, it wasn’t a recurrence of the injury that kept her out much of the season, but rather a strep throat, reports Ed Grant. He adds that she’s expected to be at the line Saturday in her Group III meet, where she will battle Colts Neck duo Ashley Higginson and Briana Jackucewicz.
The Group IV race will reunite Danielle Tauro and Amanda Marino, who have gone 1-2 with sub-18s two of the last three weeks.
That brings us to New York, where lots of interesting things are happening. First, Saturday’s state public school class championships will bring back together the state’s studdettes who last met at Eastern States at Vanny last month. Assuming she’s been on cruise control the last few weeks, defending national FL champ Aislinn Ryan should rule the Class AA race, but it should be very interesting after that between Saratogans Lindsay Ferguson and Hannah Davidson, Hilton’s Amanda Griggs, and Suffern’s Shelby Greany, among others.
Then it’s worth noting that Caitlin Lane and Nicole Blood, running independently after leaving Saratoga last spring, put up a couple of times last weekend that can invite some nice comparisons with their former teammates … all in the interest of gauging Northeast and national contenders, of course. Lane ran 17:01 and Blood 17:05 at the Adirondack Jr. Olympics at the Toga State Park, the same course where Davidson and Ferguson ran 17:04 and 17:13 the week before in the Suburban Council meet. Good stuff, good stuff.
State meets in VA, FL, TX and more will also highlight this weekend’s slate, as will the section prelims and finals in CA.
But more on those …
Regionally Speaking
… Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on:
West: Outside of the national berths that Mel Lawrence NV, Megan O’Reilly WA, and probably Kari Hardt AZ, are expected to get, the top 10 is pretty much likely to be dominated by California girls. … Still, looking at the five state meets (NV, AZ, OR, WA, NM) in this region last week, let’s look at who else might be in position to grab one of those spots, or at least come close.
Behind Mel in NV – well, virtually behind – sr. Wendy Harris won the 1A/2A race last weekend in 19:50. Harris knows what it’s like at Mt. SAC: The senior was 16th last year at FL West (11th returnee), ahead of Hardt and Cali. Girls like Alex Kosinski, Shannon Murakami, and Katy Andrews. She is clearly her state’s other best shot. … What about after O’Reilly in WA? Jessica Pixler was next on the watch in that 4A race in 18:10, with Anna Layman and Paige Pattilo following 13 and 14 seconds later. Kelsey Walker is WA’s top FL West returnee from last year (finished 33rd); she was 3rd in the 3A race behind Michelle Schubert and Stephanie Marcy. Truth is, I don’t think there really is a clear number two in the state now.
Hardt (18:42) won by 1:33 in her state 4A-II race, but 5A-II winner Tara Erdman (19:11) is a very solid performer, and Kristen Phillips (19:15) and Lindsay Prescott (19:18) weren’t far behind. … In NM, 5A winner Vanessa Ortiz (18:29) and the St. Michaels’ 1-2 of Irena Ossola and Tess Amer (both 18:42) will go to Mt. SAC with solid experience, with Ortiz and Ossola coming from 28th and 34th at FL West last year.
Claire Michel is the highest OR returnee, finishing 39th in FL West last year, and she was true to that form in her state meet, winning 4A in 18:32, beating Jennifer Macias 18:43 and Alyssa O’Conner 18:45. In 3A, however, Ilsa Paulson went 18:31 over Holly Dieu 18:37.
While Cali runners move through the sections, there will be one state meet this week … in Hawaii. Lauren Ho, 9th at FL West last year, will try and defend her title.
Midwest: With five state meets in the region (OH, MI, MN, IL, MO), there’s plenty to talk about, starting with Ohio. … I moved Bridget Franek up last week, feeling like I’d underrated her. I still feel that way. The Mantua Crestwood senior completed her year-long state domination last week with a D2 romp in 17:34, 36 seconds up on a very good Emily Infeld. I’d like to say Infeld, along with other fine Ohioans like D1 champ Brooklyne Ridder (18:19), D1 runner-up Angela Bizzarri (18:20), D3 champ Sarah Foster (18:29), and some others have a great chance, too, but I just can’t. There’s too many other 17-somethings in this FL Midwest field.
Besides MN, one of the surprises was IL, where Katelyn Bastert wasn’t quite as blazing as earlier in the year and was nudged out for fastest time of the day. While Bastert was dominating Class A for the third straight year (16:53 3M, wins by 31 seconds), soph Lauren Haberkorn was stunning in AA with a 16:51, topping Shannon Phelan (17:06), Caitlin Comfort (17:16), and Amber Stack (17:25). … While Amy Laskowske (6th-17:28 in AA) had something of an off day, don’t be shocked if she bounces back well for FL MW. She was 16th last year (11th returnee).
There were plenty of fast girls times in MI last weekend, some expected and some not. Saline’s Eileen Creutz taking D1 with the best time of the day, 17:41, was not a big surprise, but did anyone expect Rockford’s Katie Haines at 17:48 or Grand Haven’s Becca Addison at 17:55? Not me. I was intrigued, however, to see the Morgan sisters close in 4th and 6th at 17:55 and 17:57. Jenny Morgan is hopefully on the elevator ride up after a season marred by illness and has said all year that she has some unfinished business in Kenosha and San Diego. Stephanie has been rock-steady as a freshman. … But that was only part of the fireworks. I had all but counted out 2004 national qualifier Bekah Smeltzer, who had been coming back from a summer injury all fall. Well, she’s all the way back, as displayed by a spectacular photo-finish win in 17:45 over Erin LaFave, who herself showed the whole state she’s for real. …
Don’t discount D3 winner Mikel Beckman (18:04) or D4 winner Marissa Treece (17:58) either. … Ok, so I’m giving major props to my home state. What can I say? We’re deeeepp! Whether we’re 2-3 qualifiers deep or a bunch of kids in the top 30 deep – now THAT, I don’t know.
Now in Missouri, if you just put Merideth Snow on your list, I think you’ll be good. She won her Class 4 race in 17:52, 1:14 ahead of second. The next best times were Brittani Johnson (18:43) and Rachel York (18:54) out of Class 3. Snow was the only Missou runner in the top 50 last year. … In MN, Nikki Swenson (14:16 4k) and Hanna Grinnaker (14:18) would be your next two after the big two.
South: There were six state meets in the region last week and five more this week, but let’s start in GA (my old state) where the season’s fourth battle of “The Emilies” was to take place in the 4A race at Carrollton. … Though Chamblee’s Emily Reese had a 2-1 lead in three invitational matchups that have produced some of the best running in state history, it was McIntosh’s Emily Borsare that really raised eyebrows with her 16:59 5k in her region race. Borsare moved out to a lead of 20 seconds in the third mile, only to collapse in the final 100 as Reese won in 18:49 in hot conditions on a slow course. …
Meanwhile, Collins Hill’s Jackie Drouin, who also had a great season, including a win over Reese, came on and won 5A with what turned out to be the time of the day (18:30). All three girls have a solid chance to qualify at McAlpine….
Really, this week will settle more of the questions as far as predicting the South. … In FL, will freshman Ashley Brasovan continue her season-long state dominance? Will veteran star Kelly Parrish rise to the occasion? Or will someone like Bona Jones step in and pull a fast one? Unfortunately, it will be a virtual race as all three girls are in different classes at Saturday’s state meet …
Such won’t be the problem in TX as the prime time players seem to all be in 5A. At last week’s region 5A-I, a trio of FL national qualifiers met for the umpteenth time, but on this day, Keller’s Carlene Mayfield (11:08 2M) reversed the season’s trend and beat her Southlake Carroll neighbors. In fact, it was Montwood’s Christina Munoz in 2nd (11;18), with SLC girls Brooke Upshaw (11:33) and Miranda Walker (11:42) in 3rd and 4th. Upshaw had been dominating their meetings in district and various invites. … The other best contenders are probably Westfield teammates Britney Green (11:01) and Nichole Jones (11:04) from 5A-III.
In VA, soph Aurora Scott is clearly the best runner, but as a private school athlete she’s not part of the VHSL meet. That will leave it to Catherine White, Rachel Rose, Kayley Byrne and others to battle it out Saturday. A healthy Scott should be battling in the top three at McAlpine; the others are longshots for a top ten spot. …
Kate Niehaus and Callen Fike had the dominant victories that were expected in SC and NC last weekend.
Northeast: The titanic battles in NY and NJ this weekend and next, that we’ve mentioned in the national section, overshadow everything else in this region. It’s not out of line to say that those two states could eat up, say, eight of the top ten spots in FL Northeast….
Cassie Hintz of Maine, running independently, is another definite favorite. Last week I had another top ten spot pegged for Kacey Gibson from PA. Well, like a colleague of mine has said, “That’s why they run the races.” … While Gibson has had a fine season, she couldn’t do it last Saturday; she was 2nd in the AA race at the 2-mile, then faded badly. … In AAA on the other hand, it was a very determined senior Liz Costello of Big Spring sizzling through the course in a record 18:18, leaving Lara Crofford and Sarah Morrison more than 20 seconds in arrears. I can’t say I wasn’t warned.
Some contenders, at least for the final spots, should be distinguished from those in the 5-state New Englands this weekend, too. CT Open leaders Kelly Sorrell (15:13 4k) and Kristin Mitchell (15:15), RI’s champ Samantha Garwych (19:11), and NH Meet of Champs leaders Ashley Morgenstern (18:26) and Georgia Griffin (18:34) – all from last week – could be battling for the top spot. ME and VT champs Abigail Iselborn and Caitlin Pecor are the top candidates to lead their states into battle.
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