Nov 24 - Nov 11 -- Nov 4 - Initial Analysis -
Nov 24 - Boys Midwest
SteveU’s Predicted Top 10 (last ranking)
1. Mohamud Ige CO (1)
2. Brock Hagerman IN (2)
3. Landon Peacock MI (13)
4. Jeremy Stevens IL (5)
5. Mike Torchia MN (4)
6. Chad Balyo OH (15)
7. Ryan Craven IL (8)
8. Dan Roberts CO (6)
9. Josh Mathis MO (HM)
10. Christian Escareno IL (NR)
Not running: York IL team? (Matt and Eric Dettman), Andrew Perkins WI (not on list), Ben Englehardt OH, Stephen Dak IA (not on list), Rob Finnerty MN (inj).
Ten to Watch (Random Order): Steve Weeks CO, Steve Finley IL, De’Sean Turner IN, Ben Brammeier MO, Tucker Weems KS, Elliot Heath MN, TC Lumbar MN, Noah Shannon CO, Sean Olson WI, Matt Conahan NE.
Honorable Mention: Stephen Dak IA, Tommy Walton CO, Kyle Rood MO, Jon Popejoy IL, Bruce McTaggart IL, Lane Boyer KS, Matt Herzel CO, Evan Jager IL, Jesse Luciano IL, Michael Quick MI, Addis Habtewold MI, Charlie Batch IL, Tim Branigan MN, Chris Lemon OH, Dan Jackson MI, Kevin Havel IL, Jordan Anderson IA, Bo Waggoner, OH, Nathan Blatt OH, Patrick Grosskopf MI, Ben Murphy-Baum MO, Todd Guliza NE, Marshall Kambestad SD, David Pede WI, Josh Ehrhard MO, Bobby Moldovan IN, Brent Imgrund KS, Van Tate MI, Scott Meyers OH, Skyler Schmitt OH, Andrew Lacy WI, Josh Thebeau MO, Kaafi Adeyes MN, Alex Pine SD, David Adams NE, Sufian Kimo NE, Paul Krebs OH, Adam Martin IN, Chris Olinger OH.
11/24 Rankings (last ranking)
(based on season performance)
1. Mohamud Ige CO (1)
2. Landon Peacock MI (13)
3. Brock Hagerman IN (2)
4. Jeremy Stevens IL (5)
5. Mike Torchia MN (4)
6. Chad Balyo OH (15)
7. Andrew Perkins WI (3)
8. Ryan Craven IL (8)
9. Dan Roberts CO (6)
10. Josh Mathis MO (HM)
Breakdown: While the Mid-East meet and certain state results have straightened the prospects out in this region somewhat, there’s still the issue of a lot of guys who haven’t raced in 3 to 5 weeks.
Mohamud Ige CO had his state meet in October, but I’ve still got to figure he’s the favorite. I haven’t seen anything on Dan Roberts CO since Chile Pepper, but am still holding a spot for him down the list.
Landon Peacock MI took the measure of Brock Hagerman IN last week, but I think the Hoosier state champ may have a little more left in the tank for this week, though he has hinted we may not see his full potential until San Diego. Peacock pushes it hard every race and we’ll see if he can hold up for two more efforts.
After skipping Mid-East last week, IL’s Jeremy Stevens should be rested at the line. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes higher than the fourth I’m giving him. Mike Torchia MN has been solid all year and Chad Balyo OH moves up after a strong showing at Mid-East.
IL, with a big group of motivated runners that feel the teams in their state have been slighted by NTN, could qualify at least two more. Ryan Craven’s been very steady all year and Christian Escareno is a big talent who’s finally getting some quality training in after being injured most of the year. If AA champ Steve Finley bounces back from last week, he’ll qualify, too. After Roberts, a Heartland runner should take the final spot, probably Josh Mathis MO, or Tucker Weems KS.
The “not-running” list is key here. Last I could get information, the Yorkies were not running at FL MW, with a defense of their NTN championship the next weekend in Portland. But if they change their minds, Matt and Eric Dettman will fight for top 10 spots. WI state champ Andrew Perkins has reportedly shut it down for the year, as has Rob Finnerty MN, who’s been plagued by injury all year. IA champ Stephen Dak is not on the list, either
Nov 4 - Boys Midwest
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form, with rank 2 weeks ago)
1. Mohamud Ige CO (1)
2. Brock Hagerman IN (HM)
3. Andrew Perkins WI (8)
4. Mike Torchia MN (7)
5. Jeremy Stevens IL (HM)
6. Dan Roberts CO (2)
7. Ben Brammeier MO (NR)
8. Ryan Craven IL (6)
9. Matt Dettman IL (3)
10. Eric Dettman IL (4)
11. De’Sean Turner IN (5)
12. Tucker Weems KS (HM)
13. Landon Peacock MI (HM)
14. Elliot Heath MN (9)
15. Chad Balyo OH (HM)
HM: Stephen Dak IA, Kyle Rood MO, Matt Conahan NE, TC Lumbar MN, Steve Weeks CO, Jon Popejoy IL, Sean Olson WI, Bruce McTaggart IL, Lane Boyer KS, Josh Mathis MO, Matt Herzel CO, Jacob Boone MO, Justin Roeder IN, Steve Finley IL, Noah Shannon CO, Jesse Luciano IL, Michael Quick MI, Rob Finnerty MN, Addis Habtewold MI, Charlie Batch IL, Tim Branigan MN, Chris Lemon OH, Dan Jackson MI, Steve Finley IL, Jordan Anderson IA, Bo Waggoner, OH, Nathan Blatt OH, Ben Murphy-Baum MO, Todd Guliza NE, Marshall Kambestad SD, David Pede WI, Josh Ehrhard MO, Bobby Moldovan IN, Bret Imgrund KS
Analysis:
I called this “one mysterious region” two weeks ago and it has done nothing to change my mind since. It’s an unwieldy mix of top returnees not running too well (Dan Roberts CO, Rob Finnerty MN, Noah Shannon CO), second tier returnees moving up (Jeremy Stevens IL, Ryan Craven IL, Michael Torchia MN), a few newcomers, and a whole lot of guys who haven’t competed against each other.
The region, extremely spread out, lacks a big meet (other than Roy Griak, which is mainly Heartland) that brings multiple states together. Furthermore, two huge states (Ohio, Michigan) have no one returning from last year’s top 45. Then there’s IL, with the fast 3-mile courses and no competing outside the state. IL will possibly have a number of runners (mainly York HS guys) not competing at FL Midwest. Like the Yorkies, De’Sean Turner IN may also have NTN obligations to consider.
Thus, outside of top returnee Mohamud Ige, the CO state champ, and comebacking IN state champ Brock Hagerman, I have no idea how this region is going turn out.
State meets this weekend in MI, MN, OH, IL, and MO will at least sort out better the contenders within those states, though they will often be racing the clock in different classes rather than each other. Who will run fastest in IL between Jeremy Stevens in A, or Ryan Craven, or the Dettmans in AA? You’d better throw in Jon Popejoy, Bruce McTaggart, Jesse Luciano and some others, too. Will it be Landon Peacock, Addis Habtewold or someone else who was not on the radar last year putting up the best time in MI? Do you like Elliott Heath, T.C. Lumbar, or Mike Torchia in MN?
Things were settled in a few states last weekend that leave no doubt regarding some top FL contenders. As we talked about on the national page, Hagerman is the real deal from IN and could end up winning in Kenosha. Turner and maybe a few other Hoosiers have a shot, too. Sophomore WI champ Andrew Perkins is still young for a FL men’s finalist, but he’s been a steady winner and deserves a high spot.
Stephen Dak IA and Tucker Weems KS were impressive state meet winners last weekend, while Matt Conahan NE was a narrow one.
Notes: Ben Engelhardt OH, undefeated through September, suffered a fractured knee cap from a fall on September 29. He hasn’t raced since and will miss state. However, he’s begun light training and may compete at a “reduced capacity” at Mideast Meet of Champions and FL MW … All of the states in this region will have competed state meets after this weekend.
Initial Analysis - Boys Midwest
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Mohamud Ige CO
2. Dan Roberts CO
3. Matt Dettman IL
4. Eric Dettman IL
5. De’Sean Turner IN
6. Ryan Craven, IL
7. Michael Torchia MN
8. Andrew Perkins WI
9. Elliot Heath MN
10. Ben Englehardt OH
HM: Josh Mathis MO, Matt Herzel CO, Jacob Boone MO, Jeremy Stevens IL, Steve Weeks CO, Jon Popejoy IL, Justin Roeder IN, Steve Finley IL, Noah Shannon CO, Jesse Luciano IL, Josh Mathis MO, Michael Quick MI, Rob Finnerty MN, Chad Balyo OH, Tucker Weems KS, Addis Habtewold MI, Charlie Batch IL, TC Lumbar MN, Ryan Craven, IL, Tim Branigan MN, Chris Lemon OH, Dan Jackson MI, Landon Peacock MI, Brock Hagerman, IN, Steve Finley IL, Jordan Anderson IA, Bo Waggoner, OH, Nathan Blatt OH, Ben Murphy-Baum MO, Todd Guliza NE, Marshall Kambestad SD, David Pede WI, Matt Conahan NE, Josh Ehrhard MO, Bobby Moldovan IN, Bret Imgrund KS
Analysis:
The Midwest is one mysterious region this year, with just two returnees, some newcomers, some guys coming from the middle of last year’s pack, and the big question whether superpower York will run. Matt Dettman, for example, would be a strong contender for first or second, but he probably will use NTN as a potential qualifier if that deal is worked out again between Nike and Foot Locker.
Mohamud Ige, the top returnee, is the man at the top. His key appearance, at Great American, was a very solid, if not spectacular, runner-up finish to Sandy Roberts in the ROC. He has several state and regional-level wins.
The other returnee, Dan Roberts, has moved 1,500 miles across the country. Amazingly, he’s in still in the same region, as Vicksburg MI and Crested Butte Academy CO are on opposite ends of the vast MW. He popped up at Stanford, then Chile Pepper last week where he was third. A 4:09 1600 runner, he still must be considered near the top of the rankings.
After that, it’s extremely difficult to sort the contenders from pretenders. To really find someone who has made some statements, you have to go down to the 8th and 9th returnees, Ben Englehardt, who is unbeaten in Ohio, and Michael Torchia, who counts the huge Roy Griak meet among his wins.
Minnesota’s Rob Finnerty, the No. 3 returnee, was so impressive as a freshman. But he has consistently been beaten by top state rivals. Neither Noah Shannon, Matt Conahan, Jeremy Stevens, or even Tucker Weems – the next four coming back – has stepped up like their ready to make national headlines.
In between, you have to rank the Dettmans, Matt and Eric, even though they almost certainly won’t run Foot Locker regionals and haven’t raced outside anyone outside Illinois. Ryan Craven has beaten both of them once and lost to them once. One of the most impressive slates has been rung up by Indiana’s De’Sean Turner, who has won several invitationals and is down to 15:13, after not running here last year. Ditto with soph Andrew Perkins, last year’s indoor mile record-setter who has dominated Wisconsin. Elliot Heath, who shares top billing in Minnesota with Torchia, could join his brother Garrett as an FL finalist.
A deep well of contenders follows them, including question marks like Brock Hagerman IN (9th two years ago), Addis Habtewold MI (Ethiopian who used to just play soccer), TC Lumbar MN and Chad Balyo OH (just behind Torchia/Heath and Englehardt, respectively), Ben Brammeier MO (6th Great American ROC), Rim Rock winner Jacob
Boone MO, and another 10 or 15 who could easily move up. The upcoming state meets should sort some of this out.
Top 15 Returnees
1. (3rd) Mohamud Ige CO 15:33
2. (7th) Daniel Roberts CO 15:42
3. (11th) Rob Finnerty MN 15:51
4. (15th) Noah Shannon CO 16:02
5. (17th) Matt Conahan NE 16:04
6. (20th) Jeremy Stevens IL 16:06
7. (21st) Tucker Weems KS 16:06
8. (26th) Ben Engelhardt OH 16:08
9. (28th) Michael Torchia MN 16:11
10. (32nd) Josh Ehrhard MO 16:15
11. (36th) Bobby Moldovan IN 16:18
12. (39th) Kevin Havel IL 16:19
13. (40th) Ryan Craven IL 16:19
14. (44th) Elliott Heath MN 16:25
15. (49th) Michael Quick MI 16:27
1. Mohamud Ige, 2006, Denver South H.S., Denver CO
2005 CC: 2nd Great American ROC 15:13, 1st Centerra 16:03
2005 Track: 3rd GWI 9:03.54, 4:11.97 Music City
2004 CC: 13th FLN 15:44, 3rd FLMW 15:33
2. Daniel Roberts, 2006, Crested Butte HS, Crested Butte CO
2005 CC: 2nd Chile Pepper 15:30, 14th Stanford 15:56
2005 Track: 1st Mich. D-2 4:09.45, 5th NON 4:11.45
2004 CC: 18th FLN 15:53, 7th FLMW 15:42
3. Matt Dettman, 2006, York H.S., Bensenville IL
2005 CC: 1st Peoria 14:32 (3M), 8th Palatine 14:41 (2.96M)
2005 Track: 4:15.42 2nd 2A State, 4:14.29y 1st MW Dist. Gala,
2004 CC: 34th FLN 16:30, DNC FLMW, 4th NTN 16:08
4. Eric Dettman, 2006, York H.S., Bensenville IL
2005 CC: 2nd Peoria 14:42 (3M), 3rd Palatine 14:25 (2.96M)
2005 Track: 9:07.94 1st Prospect
2004 CC: DNC FLMW, 29th NTN
5. De’Sean Turner, 2007, Warren Central H.S., Warren IN
2005 CC: 1st Culver 15:27, 1st Region 15:13
2005 Track: 4:17.23 6th State, 9:24.21 9th State
2004 CC: DNC FLMW
6. Ryan Craven, 2006, Prospect H.S., Mt. Prospect IL
2005 CC: 1st Palatine 14:06 (2.96M), 3rd Peoria 14:44 (3M)
2005 Track: 9:09 2nd Prospect
2004 CC: 40th FLMW 16:19
7. Michael Torchia, 2006, Lourdes H.S., Rochester MN
2005 CC: 1st Griak 15:34, 1st Mayo 15:31
2005 Track: 9:29.58 1st State, 4:28.72 4th State,
2004 CC: 28th FLMW 16:11
8. Andrew Perkins, 2008, Watertown HS. WI
2005 CC: 5th Griak 15:53
2005 Track: 4:15.07y 2nd MW DistGala
2004 CC: 1st FLMW Fr./So. 16:38
9. Elliott Heath, 2007, Winona H.S., Winona MN
2005 CC: 1st Ev Berg 15:56, 1st Lakeville 15:29
2005 Track: 4:17.57 3rd State
2004 CC: 44th FLMW 16:25
10. Ben Englehardt, 2006, Westerville HS, OH
2005 CC: 1st Tiffin 15:30, 1st Malone 16:02
2005 Track: 9:23.32 3rd State
2004 CC: 26th FLMW 16:08
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Nov 24 - Nov 11 - Nov 4 - Initial Analysis -
Nov 24 - Girls Midwest
SteveU’s Predicted Top 10 (last ranking)
1. Betsy Bies, SD (3)
2. Keara Sammons, CO (2)
3. Bridget Franek OH (5)
4. Bria Wetsch, MN (6)
5. Elizabeth Yetzer MN (1)
6. Merideth Snow MO (4)
7. Katelyn Bastert IL (11)
8. Bekah Smeltzer MI (HM)
9. Lindsay Anderson ND (8)
10. Kellee Lemcke MI (NR)
Not running: Jenny Morgan MI (inj.), Eileen Creutz MI (inj.), Katie Vanatta CO, Sarah Kehe IN (swimming), Westfield IN girls (Maggie Bingham, Kristina Krasich)
Ten to Watch (Random Order): Alexandra Banfich IN, Dani Parry CO, Alison Eckert SD, Claire Maduza WI, Sarah Wickman IA, Ellie Rastall CO, Erin LaFave MI, Sarah Foster OH, Shannon Phelan IL, Lauren Haberkorn IL.
Honorable Mention: Brooklyn Ridder OH, Angela Bizzari OH, Emily Infeld OH, Krista Eckert SD, Kelly Bogard WI, Elizabeth Bruce CO, Amy Laskowske IL, Katie Haines MI, Becca Addison MI, Courtney Calka MI, Stephanie Morgan MI, Katie Follett CO, Marissa Treece MI, Mikel Beckman MI, Katy Achtien IN, Christy Titus OH, Amber Stack IL, Brittany Dlhy IA, Stephanie Mundt IA, Caitlin Comfort IL, Megan Kelly ND, Hannah Roeder IA, Nikki Swenson MN, Hanna Grinnaker MN, Claire Hall IA, Laura Roxberg KS, Jill Lagashulte IA, Cassie Sokol IA, Amanda Burger OH, Christina Schneider OH, Emily Pritt OH, Erika Alpeter OH, Cassandra Schenck OH, Brooke Eilers MI, Megan Jackson IN, Jocelyn Burke WI, Brittani Johnson MO, Kathi White NE.
11/24 Rankings (last ranking)
(based on season performance)
1. Elizabeth Yetzer MN (1)
2. Keara Sammons, CO (2)
3. Betsy Bies, SD (3)
4. Bridget Franek OH (5)
5. Bria Wetsch, MN (6)
6. Merideth Snow MO (4)
7. Katelyn Bastert IL (11)
8. Alexandra Banfich IN (7)
9. Lindsay Anderson ND (8)
10. Eileen Creutz MI (12)
Breakdown:This is the fifth region I’ve previewed and I think I’m getting more daring with each one. Well, we know there’s going to be upsets, right? Why not actually pick some? There’s deep talent everywhere in the country, but the NE and MW girls seem the best and there’s going to be an awful lot of great runners home tuning into the webcast December 10. But I’m not so radical in the girls who are going, but the order they will be going in.
Yankton, SD’s Ramsey Kavan won here last year and the way her former teammate Betsy Bies has been running in 2005, I think she can do the same, even if she didn’t have the previous qualifier experience that Kavan had going into her senior year. She’s only run one 5k this year, a 16:59, and has had little comp besides the Eckert sisters from rival Sioux Falls Roosevelt. No matter, she’s going to do it.
That means my previous favorite Elizabeth Yetzer is not. Even though she set a state record (later broken by Bria Wetsch) in MN, she just doesn’t look quite as strong as she needs to be. I’ll be the first to congratulate her if she wins, but I’m picking her fifth.
Of course, that doesn’t mean she’s gotten that much worse, but that there’s so many other great girls ready to step up. You know Keara Sammons CO is always going to be right up near the top and I’ve got her number two. Mid-East and Ohio champ Bridget Franek, very strong and in control, will get third. Although she lost to her in their last head-to-head, I’m predicting Wetsch will again beat Yetzer by a few seconds, just like she did in a separate race at state.
Two great, dominant state champs are next, Merideth Snow MO, and Katelyn Bastert IL, are next. And please let it be said for the record, I would not be surprised to see ANY of these first seven girls win Saturday at Kenosha.
In eighth I’m going to pull up someone who I’d long ago buried in the “honorable mention” category, despite her qualifying last year. Bekah Smeltzer MI has been coming back from injury all year and, finally at her D2 state meet, showed the form that made her a qualifier last year, winning a thrilling duel with Erin LaFave (one of my “Ten to Watch”). Incidentally, Michigan had incredible depth, with 13 girls between 17:41 and 18:01 at state. Two of the very best, D1 Eileen Creutz and Clarkston star Jenny Morgan, will be out of FL with injuries.
Also in my top 10 are Lindsay Anderson, the ND champ whose older sister has made it, and Kellee Lemcke, who rebounded from a late-race near-collapse at her MI D1 state meet to get second at Mid-East. A second or third team from this region would be awfully good, too.
Nov 4 - Girls Midwest
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Elizabeth Yetzer MN (1)
2. Keara Sammons, CO (2)
3. Betsy Bies, SD (5)
4. Merideth Snow MO (3)
5. Bridget Franek OH (9)
6. Bria Wetsch, MN (4)
7. Alexandra Banfich IN (HM)
8. Lindsay Anderson ND (6)
9. Katie Vanatta CO (HM)
10. Dani Parry, CO (7)
11. Katelyn Bastert IL (HM)
12. Eileen Creutz MI (HM)
13. Allison Eckert SD (8)
14. Claire Maduza WI (NR)
15. Sarah Wickman IA (HM)
HM: Ellie Rastall CO, Jenny Morgan MI (10), Angela Bizzari OH, Emily Infeld OH, Krista Eckert SD, Elizabeth Bruce CO, Amy Laskowske IL, Katie Follett CO, Katy Achtien IN, Erin LaFave MI, Sarah Foster OH, Christy Titus OH, Amber Stack IL, Betsy Kim IN, Brittany Dlhy IA, Stephanie Mundt IA, Caitlin Comfort IL, Ina Ables MO, Molly Waterhouse MI, Rebekah Smeltzer MI, Kortni Dukes OH, Shannon Phelan IL, Danielle Meiners OH, Sarah Leeper OH, Megan Kelly ND, Kelsey Bulat IA, Alyshea Valencia KS, Hannah Roeder IA, Beth Tacl MN, Michelle Volz MN, Claire Hall IA, Bethany Snow MO, Sarah Larsen IA, Laura Roxberg KS, Terry Phillips MO, Jill Lagashulte IA, Meaghan Nelson IA, Kalli Dalton IL, Cassie Sokol IA
Analysis:
I don’t know if I’d say the FL MW girls region is quite as “mysterious” as the boys, and, considering developments in the NE, I’m not quite as geeked about the level of quality here as I was a few weeks ago when I made my “Frodo” comment.
It’s still an incredible region, though, and I’m still knowing there will be some awfully good girls left at home.
Things have been sorted out nicely in CO, IN, WI, SD, IA, and ND the last couple weeks; Saturday, it’s OH, IL, MI, MN, and MO.
As I’ve said in this week’s national report (CO) and last week’s column (SD), Keara Sammons and Betsy Bies have established their place atop the list after wins in their respective state meets. But that doesn’t mean I don’t consider Coloradans Dani Parry, Ellie Rastall, Katie Vanatta, and Katie Follett, or South Dakotans Alison and Krista Eckert to be serious contenders. The depth may not be quite the same in IN, WI and IA, but I’ve added their fastest champions, Alexandra Banfich, Claire Maduza and Sarah Wickman, respectively, to the lists.
This weekend, I expect Elizabeth Yetzer and Bria Wetsch to be the class of MN, and Merideth Snow the same of MO, and don’t know how serious the FL contenders beyond that will be. OH and IL may be another story. While Bridget Franek and Katelyn Bastert have to be strong favorites in those respective states, I’m impressed with the depth. In OH, you’ve got Emily Infeld, Sarah Foster, Angela Bizzarri, Christy Titus, and X. Beyond Bastert in IL, there’s Amy Laskowske, Caitlin Comfort, Shannon Phelan, and Amber Stack.
My home state, MI, is even more confusing to me (real good, eh?). Last year’s finalists, Rebekah Smeltzer and Molly Waterhouse, have not run to the same level most of the year, though they looked better at region last week. Supremely talented Jenny Morgan (10:24y/4:48 last spring) has been plagued by injury and illness. Eileen Creutz, last year’s D1 champ who may have felt a bit like Rodney Dangerfield at times, has become quite dominant in the last month, especially with the big Portage win.
Again, when I look at my list, I can’t believe all the girls I’m leaving off. But there’s 11 states and that’s only 1-plus spots per state. Should Colorado have four? Well, they qualified four for nationals last year, so maybe they’re justified. After Saturday, maybe I’ll have a better idea.
Initial Analysis - Girls Midwest
SteveU’s Top Ten Contenders (Quick List)
(based on combination of credentials and current form)
1. Elizabeth Yetzer MN
2. Keara Sammons, CO
3. Merideth Snow MO
4. Bria Wetsch, MN
5. Betsy Bies, SD
6. Lindsay Anderson ND
7. Dani Parry, CO
8. Allison Eckert SD
9. Bridget Franek OH
10. Jenny Morgan MI
HM: Katelyn Bastert IL, Angela Bizzari OH, Katie Vanatta CO, Eileen Creutz MI, Emily Infeld OH, Krista Eckert SD, Elizabeth Bruce CO, Katie Follett CO, Katy Achtien IN, Erin LaFave MI, Sarah Foster OH, Christy Titus OH, Sarah Wickman IA, Betsy Kim IN, Brittany Dlhy IA, Stephanie Mundt IA, Ina Ables MO, Molly Waterhouse MI, Rebekah Smeltzer MI, Alexandra Banfich IN, Kortni Dukes OH, Danielle Meiners OH, Sarah Leeper OH, Megan Kelly ND, Kelsey Bulat IA, Alyshea Valencia KS, Hannah Roeder IA, Beth Tacl MN, Michelle Volz MN, Claire Hall IA, Bethany Snow MO, Sarah Larsen IA, Laura Roxberg MO, Terry Phillips MO, Jill Lagashulte IA, Meaghan Nelson IA, Kalli Dalton IL, Cassie Sokol IA,
Analysis:
Maybe it’s just a Midwestern bias, but it seems, perhaps more than any other girls region, that it’s going take an effort like Frodo made to get to the top of Mount Doom to get to the FL Finals out of Kenosha this year. The Midwest has won the team battle at FL two years in a row and, despite losing the top five to graduation, the streak could continue. Some sub-18 quality girls are going to be staying home from San Diego this year and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. There’s just too many good runners here.
It’s not just that you have five returnees from last year, but that you’ve got numerous outstanding runners who could now be factors due to steady or dramatic improvement, who missed or did poorly last year due to injury, or who even weren’t competing at this point last year.
There is one girl who deserves the mantle of heavy favorite, and that is Elizabeth Yetzer, who squeaked in eighth last year and has since become at least one of the top three runners in the country. First she improved to seventh at FLN. Then she WAS the nation’s best 2-miler last spring (10:15y), thanks to her Nike Outdoor victory, and also ran 4:43y. This fall she was surprised by state rival Bria Wetsch in an early meet, but beat her at Roy Griak and has won everything since.
With her consistency and experience, Keara Sammons deserves the No. 2 ranking, even though she still lacks a really big victory. Her last year of racing, beginning when she was only third on her own Smoky Hill team, has brought high placings in every meet and wins over major opponents, even if she doesn’t beat them all.
After that, sorting out the contenders is very, very difficult, given who’s raced who, who’s raced different distances, who’s new or has better credentials, and who’s progressing or regressing. Merideth Snow is just the 7th returnee, but she had a good spring, ran 17:55 at Great American, and has been healthier than her foes. She is No. 3.
Next is Wetsch, who has improved dramatically, split two races this fall with the region’s best runner, and beaten other standouts at Griak.
Bies hasn’t faced much competition this fall, but the fact that she has been breaking or just missing course records from her accomplished former teammate, Ramsey Kavan, speaks highly of the season she is having. The fastest rising star, though, is probably Parry. The Colorado senior has been competitive, but really impressed with her fourth at Griak, then beating Sammons a few weeks later (whom she lost to earlier). Only a lack of previous credentials keep her from rating higher, but that could soon change.
Alison Eckert follows, having joined her twin sister Krista and the Yankton girls in putting South Dakota on the map last fall. After a super spring in which she ran 10:27, she was in an early-season car accident and Krista has led the team. But Krista also was the family leader at NTN and she could certainly join or replace her sister in the top ten.
Franek, the ninth returnee from last year, has been arguably the best of a blistering group of Ohio runners this year, which includes Angela Bizzarri, Emily Infeld, Sarah Foster, and Chrisy Titus.
Morgan was ninth in 2003, then missed last year after falling in her state meet and dealing with injury at FLMW. An outstanding talent, she then ran 4:48/10:24y (fourth Nike Outdoor) last spring, but hasn’t yet hit her stride this fall.
What’s scary is that a second ten from this region could include Krista Eckert, the four other Ohio stars, 16:32 three-miler Katelyn Bastert of Illinois, Katie Follett and/or Katie Vanatta of Colorado, 2004 Michigan champ Eileen Creutz, and Erin LaFave (beat Morgan recently) … and still have the whole states of Indiana and Iowa left.
Bios
1. Elizabeth Yetzer, 2006, Lakeville North H.S., Lakeville MN
2005 CC: 1st Griak 17:45, 2nd Lakeville 14:04, 1st Victoria Lions 13:39
2005 Track: 1st NON 10:15.73, 4th NON 4:43.12
2004 CC: 7th FLN 18:04, 8th FLMW 18:18
2. Keara Sammons, 2006, Smoky Hill H.S. Centennial CO
2005 CC: 3rd Great American ROC 17:37, 2nd Centerra 18:39, 2nd Liberty Bell 17:51
2005 Track: 3rd Golden West 10:27.91, 5th Arcadia 10:36.13y,
2004 CC: 11th FLN 18:20, 6th FLMW 18:16, 5th NTN 18:24
8. Merideth Snow, 2006, Eureka H.S., Wildwood MO
2005 CC: 1st Mo. Southern 17:29, 6th Great American ROC 17:55
2005 Track: 3rd Acradia 10:34.80y, 5th Golden West 10:30.17, 9th NON 10:40.64y, 4:57.99 1st State
2004 CC: 12th FLMW 18:32
4. Bria Wetsch, 2006, Holy Family Catholic, Chaska MN
2005 CC: 1st Lakeville 13:44, 2nd Griak 17:57
2005 Track: 10:51.28 State 1st, 4:57.5 1st Section,
2004 CC: 23rd FLMW 18:57
5. Betsy Bies, 2007, Yankton H.S., Yankton SD
2005 CC: 1st Augustana 14:46, 1st Yankton 13:44, 1st Kobernick 14:12, 1st EDC 14:54
2005 Track: 10:45.59 2nd State, 10:10.73 (3k) 2nd Sioux City, 4:58.5 Acola Relays
2004 CC: 15th FLMW 18:38, 15th NTN 19:08
6. Lindsay Anderson, 2008, Leeds H.S., Benson Co., ND
2005 CC: 14:33 (4k) 1st Mandan, 3rd Griak 18:09
2005 Track: 4:57.64y NON
2004 CC: DNC FLMW
7. Danielle Parry, 2006, Rocky Mountain H.S. CO
2005 CC: 4th Griak 18:13, 1st Centerra 18:34, 3rd Liberty Bell 18:02
2005 Track:
2004 CC:
8. Alison Eckert, 2007, Roosevelt Sioux Falls H.S., Sioux Falls SD
2005 CC: 15th Griak 19:17, 2nd Conference 14:33
2005 Track: 4:54.98 1st Yankton LC, 2nd Golden West 10:27.13
2004 CC: 22nd FLN 18:35, 7th FLMW 18:17, 13th NTN 19:07
9. Bridget Franek, 2006, Mantua Crestwood H.S., Hiram OH
2005 CC: 1st Spartan 18:02, 1st Malone 17:42
2005 Track: 4:45.68 1st State, 7th NON 4:49.13
2004 CC: 14th FLMW 18:35
10. Jenny Morgan, 2006, Clarkston H.S., Clarkston MI
2005 CC: 1st Spartan 18:13, 1st Jackson 18:21, 2nd Oakland Co. 18:52
2005 Track: 4th NON 10:24.23y, 4:48.07 1st State, 4:52.94y 1st MW Dist.
2004 CC: DNF FLMW
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