steveu's Foot Locker
analysis of the favorites and contenders by Stephen (steveu) Underwood -
strictly for DyeStataholics and Distance Nuts

steveu picked 56 of the 80 qualifiers.

Northeast - South - Midwest - West

Northeast

Boys

Foot Locker Northeast Boys: Only got five of ten here (worst, predictions-wise) … Neither of the two NE returnees from San Diego made it to the line (Ryan Sheridan, Craig Miller), but the next three back from the 2004 NE race (Tradelle Ward, Ayalew Taye, Noel Bateman) all qualified this time … One of our insiders had been telling us all year that Bateman was going to pop one, and he was right … You couldn’t know how the Tayes were going to be over hill and dale until challenged, and they came through with flying colors … Greg Kelsey, Ward, Jeff Perrella, Keith Capecci, and Josh Hibbs had ALL been playing second (or more) banana in their states all year to the Millers, Massams, Murdocks, and Koloseuses and so on, and look how they came up … Kelsey, of course, finds himself in Portland and SD back-to-back … In these runners’ wakes, of course, are Ben Massam, Craig Forys, Steve Murdock (will run NTN, though), and Tom Webb … Definitely a race for underdogs over the favorites.

Girls

Foot Locker Northeast Girls: Picked seven of ten here, but boy, it did not come out like I thought … The five who qualified last year and returned – the current and former Saratogans and Aislinn Ryan – pretty much all made it with flying colors … It seemed for awhile this fall like Nicole Blood and Caitlin Lane had regressed, but they were absolutely as good or better than ever last Saturday – wow! … Blood is now in position to get a national title again (what a wrap that would be on her CC career!), but Ryan is now the surprising underdog and we’ll wait to see if San Diego will again be hers … I think Danielle Tauro will have another gear; we didn’t see quite her best … Great job backing up their creds by Liz Costello and Bri Jackucewicz … And what a race for Liz Deir … Heartbreak, though, for several runners, most notably Kara McKenna getting nosed out by her teammate Shelby Greany for the last spot, as well as Cassie Hintz, Amanda Marino, and Amanda Griggs

South

Boys

Foot Locker South Boys: Picked eight of ten (best region, prediction-wise) … All four South boys returning from nationals made the team, just in a different order, while two of the other top eight returnees also made it … Sandy Roberts was expected to win early in the year, but had lost to Jack Bolas in three races before here. He told The Charlotte Observer that he’s still peaking and still hopes to win in San Diego, so don’t count him out … Our regional editor John Sullivan told me that The Woodlands runners rise to the occasion at FL South, so I shouldn’t have been surprised Daniel Gerber returned to great form (actually surpassing anything he’d done all year) … Texans Duncan Phillips and Colby Lowe ran very strong as well … Insiders also told me Harbor would have plenty more than he’d show in recent races and they were right … No. 6 returnee Brad Siragusa hadn’t shown much this year until state, but nailed that spot after a great state meet.

Girls

Foot Locker South Girls: Again, got eight of ten (best region, prediction-wise) … Five of the six returning girls from the South who ran in San Diego last year made it back … I have a feeling we are going to learn a lot about the talent of Nichole Jones this week and the remaining 1.5 years of her career … And that goes for Kathy Kroeger, too, who’s just a freshman … It was a good race for seniors, with five of the top ten … A lot of people down in Fla. seem pretty excited about Bona Jones making it … While Ashley Brasovan did have the big race experience of Great American (though she was in the seeded race, where she won by almost a minute), she wasn’t “ready for everyone going out like that,” she told regional editor Ben Ackerly. She’s got plenty of years to get it right, though … Were the Southlake girls just trying to qualify, or did they push it to the limit?

Midwest

Boys

Foot Locker Midwest Boys: Predicted six of ten qualifiers … The two from Kenosha who returned after making it to San Diego last year both qualified again (Mohamud Ige, Dan Roberts), plus two of the other top four … Which of the top three from this region does best at nationals may depend on who expended the most effort at Kenosha and has the most left to give … Brock Hagerman has definitely been running conservatively in his last two races, and Ige looked relaxed enough … Landon Peacock, however, has run pretty hard three straight races. Quite the fighter, though … Illinois getting seven in the top 16 was a by-product of talent, sure, but also the concerted effort led by Steve Finley to have a collective game plan for any of the top dogs he could recruit. Boy, did it work (other states, take note) … Christian Escareno didn’t follow the plan, going out hard then badly running out of gas (217th). But his fifth in the Mid-East meet after a season of injury leaves no doubt of his talent and he’ll be back … Roberts moved more than 1,000 miles west yet stayed in the same region. He also overcame injuries to get a return ticket to San Diego from the Crested Butte Academy program.

Girls

Foot Locker Midwest Girls: Got seven of 10 qualifiers right … All three of the returning 2004 qualifers from Midwest (Keara Sammons, Allison Eckert, Elizabeth Yetzer) earned their ticket again … Yetzer and Bria Wetsch looked like far and away the big two in MN this year, but better make it three after Hanna Grinaker’s run. The resolution of an iron deficiency made it clear she’s a huge talent … The presence of the Dakotas, the least populous states in the region, will again be felt with Betsy Bies (SD), Eckert (SD), and Lindsey Anderson (ND). All three will be back next year, too. Anderson’s sister, Krista (05), had an outstanding career, but never qualified. Lindsey still has a way to go before matching her sister’s 10:24y at NON … As great a day as it was for IL boys, the girls couldn’t match it. State champs Katelyn Bastert and Lauren Haberkorn were 75th and 39th, and Shannon Phelan (NTN) skipped it. Amy Laskowske was best in 32nd.

West

Boys

Foot Locker West Boys: Got all eight qualifiers correct … just none in the right spot … However, given the “team” effort and lack of competition among the eight once they separated themselves, the order hardly mattered … The problem is, the race didn’t really tell us much about who’s ready to contend for the FL national title … Eventually, though, it was fairly evident that Matt Tebo, Jeff Helmer, and Issac Stoutenburgh couldn’t have gone much faster, that AJ Acosta may not have survived a major move, and that the Mercados, Michael Coe, and Ben Sitler had the most left … Surprisingly, Diego Mercado bounced back fine after the crash in Fresno the week before … Jake Matthews was agonizingly close, but couldn’t close all the way on the eight … Soph sensation German Fernandez closed into the top 10 early in the last mile, but then ran out of gas and faded to 40th … Although none of them had great races, watch for Mikel Thomas CA, Matthew Frerker WA, Max O'Donahue-McDonald WA, and Dustin Martin NM, to join Tebo as top returnees for next year.

From NTN: Kenny Klotz ran an outstanding race to earn the first FL berth, as expected, but Michael Cybulski fell early and wasn’t able to get up in contention … Taylor Nepon ran an outstanding race to lead Mead and earn the second spot.

* - Finish among West entrants
** - Nepon ranked 14th in last West rankings before final FL West/NTN lists.

Girls

Foot Locker West Girls: Picked five of eight qualifiers … The Jordan Hasay over Marie Lawrence result joined the Nicole Blood over Aislinn Ryan outcome as major FL region stunners … Fatigue will be a factor for many runners who’ve raced consecutive weeks in different parts of the country, but Hasay looks like she may be able to survive it best … Important to note that Lawrence ran faster than she did here last year; on the other hand, she wasn’t at her best, it seemed … Crystal Reed, Christy Adamyk, and Alex Kosinski all had great races at the right time, beating girls who’d beaten them the previous week at CIF … Of the 22 California girls who finished in the top 50, only four graduate … 23 girls broke 19 this year compared to 13 last year … Freshman Kevyn Murphy CA just missed the top eight in ninth, but looks to have a great future ahead … as do NM freshmen Tess Amer and Julia Brasher, who were 24th and 25th … Some pretty notable seniors in their states completed their careers, i.e. Vanessa Ortiz NM, Irena Ossola NM, Wendy Parker NV, Hilary McClendon ID, and Samantha Gaffney UT.

From NTN:  Annie St. Geme gave Betsy Bies all she wanted and, in the process, easily claimed the first FL berth … Cassie Ricks led Fremont with a fine race and got a little less competition than expected from other West rivals.

* - Finish among West entrants
***- Ricks ranked 11th in last West rankings before final FL West/NTN lists.

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