Boys
At least six new faces will be on the medal stand at Foot Locker Midwest Saturday afternoon as runners appear at press time (Friday noon) to be assured of dealing with the cold, rain, and muck that this race has often been famous for.
Wisconsin's Ryan Gasper and Michigan's Justin Switzer, last year's 7th and 8th qualifiers to the FL Finals, return and both seniors have had solid seasons. Neither is a sure bet to qualify, however, or even be the top finisher from their respective states.
Four other runners, none of whom competed here last year, have had the most dominating seasons in the region. One of them, undefeated Illinois champ Sean McNamara, is not on the entry list and it appears he and his team, the Dukes of York, are saving it for the Nike Team Nationals invite they earned next week. The others, senior state champs Jeff See (OH), John McGuire (CO), and Kiel Uhl (IA), each bring in impressive credentials.
See's story is most intriguing. Hailed as the second coming of Alan Webb after a 4:06 mile at AOC as a soph, he battled injuries most of his junior year. This fall he has come back strong in CC, finishing second at Great American Nike ROC and winning his division (2nd fastest overall) in the big Portage (MI) meet. But fellow Ohioan Levi Fox was within seven seconds of him at state and then beat him to win last week's Mid East meet, with See taking just fourth. Which Jeff See will we see in Kenosha and has Fox, a senior, surged into the top 4-5 contenders?
McGuire has quickly emerged as Colorado's best runner and will seek to follow some recent greats from his state like Ryan Deak, and Bradley Harkrader, although great runners from that state haven't always met expectations here. He won the seeded boys race at Great American and ran a stunning 15:06 at altitude to win his state meet. Uhl has ruled the Heartlands this fall, winning at Roy Griak and Rim Rock. Each has been idle, racing-wise, since October, so we'll see if that has any effect.
Back to Wisconsin and Michigan: Chris Rombough has been the top Badger last spring and this fall, beating Gasper at state after a track season that saw him run 9:12. Both, of course, have valuable experience on the course and Gasper knows how to come from behind. Michigan's Switzer won his division at state, but Portage division winner (fastest time) Dan Roberts had the fastest time in a smaller class and was 9th here last year. Roberts' upper-body strength may also be quite well suited for the tough conditions.
Switzer, meanwhile, was a favorite heading into his Nov. 6 state meet, but Portage overall leader (15:06) Dan Roberts (2006) could run faster in another division. He was 9th in FLMW last year. Gasper was beaten in his state meet by Chris Rombough (2005, 24th in MW last year), who has the creds to qualify.
That's eight serious contenders and it would be pretty surprising if at least six didn't earn a San Diego ticket. They are that good and experienced.
After these eight, look for Brock Hagerman (2006, IN), Justin Roeder (2006, IN), Mohamud Ige (2005, CO), and Michael Krisch (2006, MN) to be the strongest contenders among a slew of others. Ige gave McGuire all he wanted at Colorado state, but will have to prove he can be a "mudder" here. Hagerman ruled Indiana most of the year, but ran out of gas at his state meet after leading at two miles and Roeder picked up the title. Krisch was the best in the Gopher State most of the year, but Yahya Iman beat him at state.
Girls
All eyes will be on the defending national champ when the gun goes off at what is expected to be a wet, cold, muddy course Saturday in Kenosha.
Katelyn Kaltenbach (CO) was the queen last fall at both Foot Locker Midwest and then the national finals, but has not raced since the Liberty Bell meet in September due to an injury. Her team won state as she sat out four weeks ago, but she had begun training and reportedly has made fast progress.
Her home state is full of MW title contenders, however. Smoky Hill teammate Morgan Schulz, 5th here last year, is one of three other returnees. But the two best runners in Colorado, or even the region, could be a pair who weren't even here last year. Whitney Anderson has exploded this fall to a 3A state title (fastest of day at state), a 16:56 at altitude, and a runner-up effort at Great American Nike ROC. She has to be considered a national title contender. Molly Palmer beat Schulz for the Rocky Mountain State's 4A crown, stamping herself as an instant threat to win or place high here.
And if that wasn't enough from Colorado, a third Smoky Hill runner, Keara Sammons, has to be considered, plus Kate Follett, Maddie McKeever, and Rachel Gioscia, who are each among the top 16 returnees from FL MW 03. They have all put up some serious creds this fall at one time or another.
But lest one thinks that it will be an all-Colorado show in Kenosha, consider these runners:
Ramsey Kavan (SD) stunned everyone when she was 2nd here last year and 6th in the nation. Although her competition hasn't been as stiff this fall, she has rolled through unbeaten for a team that has earned a Nike Team Nationals bid and she will compete in both events.
Jenny Morgan (MI), 9th last year (5th returnee) while representing Ohio, stood out all fall until a fall at state for MW#1 Clarkston. Her team wasn't allowed by the state to go to NTN, so she'll put all her energies into qualifying for San Diego. State D-2 champ Rebekah Smeltzer (fastest in Mich. overall) and Rachel Wittum, each coming off outstanding seasons and the 8th and 11th returnees, respectively, are strong Michigan contenders, too.
Adele Mitchell (IN) and Angela Bizzarri (OH) were 12th/13th (6th/7th returnees) last year and each won state titles. No reason to think they won't be in the mix. Also watch for Brittany Tinsley, who won a smaller division in Ohio with a faster time, then ran away from the Mid East field, which include Mitchell.
Katelyn Bastert (IL) and Meredith Snow (MO) are two more state champs to be reckoned with. The former didn't race outside Illinois, but went 16:51 3M in her state meet. She isn't on the early entry list, though. The latter was 30th here last year, and has ruled Missou in as FL returnee Amber Warren hasn't competed.
Then count on some only slightly lesser lights from these states and others, as well as some surprises, to get a few spots. That's what happens every year and you can double those odds in bad weather.
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