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New Mexico State Meet November
5th, 2005 |
State Meet Preview - by Adam Kedge & Salomon Gonzales Boys: 1A-2A Team Predictions: 1. Zuni: 2nd Place at Grants and 8th Place at Curtis Williams show that the Thunderbirds can run with the best teams in the state and at the top of the small school division. Their solid pack will be too much for Navajo Pine to handle in a race the size of state. 2. Navajo Pine: A 7th Place finish at the Curtis Williams Invite proved to many that Navajo Pine was a legitimate contender. A poor showing (4th) at last years Championships will make people worry about their ability to perform in a big race. Look for Navajo Pine to be much closer in the Combined Scores than they will be in the A-AA results. 3. Laguna-Acoma: As with last years Hawks; this team has improved as the season has gotten old; probably because they have raced themselves into shape. The other LA was 30 points behind Navajo Pine at Grants, which is roughly the size of the small school’s state meet. 4. Sandia Prep: The Sundevils defeated the Hawks earlier this season but were not able to topple them on their home course. Sandia Prep should run 2 ahead of Laguna-Acoma but their 5th man will hurt their overall team scoring. If anyone is looking for an upset it could come from this bunch. 5. Peñasco: The Panthers have two good front runners and a solid supporting cast. The group as a whole is just not strong enough to contend for a square trophy. Best of the Rest: Jemez Valley, Santa Rosa, Pecos, Crownpoint, Gallup Catholic, Individual Predictions: 1. Ryan Nez, Navajo Pine: His Victory at Curtis Williams shocked many. It is too bad he will not get a chance to run vs. Tebo until the Border War. 2. William Naketena, Zuni: 18th at Curtis Williams and a strong finish give this Thunderbird the edge over the rest of a deep field. 3. Patrick Ortiz, Pecos: Ortiz on the other hand has been tested and has performed better in big meets (UNM and Curtis Williams) 4. Taylor Roholt, Sandia Prep: Taylor has run well all year but has not been tested against a large field. 5. Jon Wheeler, Desert Academy: Wheeler is coming into his own late in the season which spells trouble for the rest of the state. This track sprinter has the best kick in the field and could be dangerous if he is close to the front. Best of the Rest: Randy Nez, Navajo Pine; Martin Aguilar & Ben Sanchez Penasco; Eric Vallo, Laguna Acoma; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Boys: 3A Team Predictions: 1. Cobre: Cobre has a solid season that included two successful trips into the North (9th at Curtis Williams and 4th at the Capital City Meet) that proved that they are the favorites in AAA. They are not deep but a 12 team meet shouldn’t affect their fate. 2. Santa Fe Indian School: The Braves are peeking at the right time. A mile into the Grants race they were running ahead of Zuni and almost even with Gallup. It is hard to judge SFIS early in the school year because this team does not meet until early September. The District 2 champions are ready to make a run at a title. 3. St. Michael’s: The Horsemen have been overshadowed by the girls all season. But this is a solid team with two top front runners. An upset in AAA could come from this bunch. 4. Wingate: The defending AAA champs have rounded into shape to become a trophy contender. Their close 3rd at Laguna-Acoma showed their improvement. 5. Shiprock: The battle between Shiprock and Wingate is too close to call. Wingate edged the Chieftains at the Curtis Williams and since then the two teams have not raced. Shiprock’s distant 3rd at Rio Rancho does not clear up anything. Look for this battle to come down to each team’s 5th man. Best of the Rest: Pojoaque, Ruidoso, Grants, Tohatchi, Individual Predictions: 1. Obed Hernandez, Cobre: 5 Regular season wins + 5th at Curtis Williams + 2nd at Capital City = AAA favorite and one of the top runners in the state; regardless of classification. 2. Matt Fant, St. Michael’s: Of the Horsemen front runners Matt has been the most consistent. He has also outperformed most of AAA in the state’s two big meets (UNM and Curtis Williams.) 3. Justin C. Miller, Grants: Justin just missed a trophy at the Curtis Williams invitational. He will not leave Gallup without an award this time. 4. Steven Johnson, SFIS: Steven’s runner-up performance at the District 2 meet has propelled him into contention for a colored medal. His season has not been the most consistent but he is running fast at the right time. 5. Samuel Kilinekole, Ruidoso: Samuel’s 3rd place finish against a tough Ruidoso field makes him a favorite for a medal but he failed to finish in the top 10 when he journeyed to Las Vegas Robertson. Best of the Rest: Mike Hart, St. Mikes; Almanis Begaye, Shiprock, Justin B. Miller, Grants; Robert Lovato, SFIS; Joe Mendez, Cobre; Anthony Gonzales, Robertson ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Girls: 1A-2A Team Predictions: 1. Navajo Prep: This is, by far, the best team in the small school division. Navajo Prep has not had the opportunity to face Pojoaque for the #2 spot in the coaches’ poll and that is why the two teams have traded that spot over the year. Look for this team to dominate 1A-2A and make an argument in the combined team scores. 2. Navajo Pine: The two best teams in 1A-2A are in the same district. Navajo Pine doesn’t have the firepower to match its district rival but they do have enough strength to hold off the rest of the state. 3. Zuni: The Thunderbirds passed their first test of the season when they defeated 4A Del Norte at the Jemez Valley Invitational. Following that victory they have only suffered defeats to two other small school teams. They are the likely choice to take home the Green Trophy. 4. Crownpoint: This team runs in on of the toughest areas in the state for small school girls teams. In Grants and at Gallup; Crownpoint has finished behind Zuni making many believe that they do not have the depth to defeat the Thunderbirds. But their 1st place finish over Santa Fe Prep (East Mountain) proved that they are better than the North/Central teams. 5. Laguna-Acoma: Will the real Lady Hawks please stand up? Which team will show up to state? Will it be the one that finished 2nd at their home invite or the one that scored over 300 points at Grants and finished 2nd to last at the Curtis Williams Invitational? Best of the Rest: Sandia Prep, Peñasco, Santa Fe Prep Individual Predictions: 1. Ashley Quintana, Pecos: This 3 time state champion is the overwhelming favorite in the small school division. She hasn’t lost to anyone in AA and has only lost to 3 New Mexico girls total. 2. Shahanna Begay, Navajo Prep: Begay came the closest to Quintana this year at the Curtis Williams invitational when she finished in 11th place and 48 seconds behind the Lady Panther. 3. Jill Alcorn, Cloudcroft: Begay and Alcorn have not met this season but Begay has the edge on comparison times. Alcorn has run some fast times in the south but has not been tested in a northern race. Alcorn is the defending runner-up from last year and did race well at the Border War and during Track. 4. Chantel Hunt, Navajo Pine: Chantel just missed a trophy at the Curtis Williams finishing 21st, giving her the 3rd best finish by a small school girl. 5. Kadee McCray, Navajo Prep: Kadee has been the backbone for Navajo Prep over the last years. Best of the Rest: Rosa LaCerva, Santa Fe Prep; Cassandra Sanchez, Laguna-Acoma, Racquel Baca, Alamo Navajo ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Girls: 3A Team Predictions: 1. St. Michael’s: The Lady Horsemen finished strong and may contend for the Combined Scores Title with the Eldorado Eagles. St. Mikes is a small but complete team. The Lady Horsemen only have 6 runners but they all might earn a trip to the Border War if they run as well as they did at the district championship (perfect 15 vs. Pojoaque). 2. Pojoaque: The Elketts lost 47-59 to Los Alamos (at LA) without Sofia Torres, who was their #1 in Alamosa and has been their #2 throughout the year. The young Pojoaque team has run somewhat inconsistently this season; with less than average races at Highland and Capital City, but they are so strong that even a less than average performance should earn them the red trophy. 3. Shiprock: The defending state champs are peeking at the right time. The Lady Chieftains have traveled far from home to test themselves against some of the toughest teams in the Albuquerque and North Central areas. 4. Cobre: The addition of the Diaz twins propelled Cobre into contention in 3A. They may not have enough depth to get to the podium. 5. Wingate: Finished 1 spot behind Shiprock at the Curtis Williams Invitational. Best of the Rest: SFIS Individual Predictions: 1. Irena Ossola, St. Michael’s: After her 5th place finish at UNM Irena has been on a role. Her victory at the Curtis Williams lifted her back to the top the standings as the best runner in the state. 2. Tess Amer, St. Michael’s: Tess has shown that she may be the best #2 runner in the Southwest. She may also be the 2nd best runner in the state. She has beaten Irena 3 times this year (Alamosa, UNM and Valley) but it seems like the senior (Ossola) has the ability to step it up and beat the diminutive Amer when she needs to. 3. Rachelle Billie, Shiprock: Knee problems slowed Billie early in the season but she has finished the season strong. 4. Jarita & Erica Diaz Cobre: Two picks for the price of one. These 8th grade twins are ready to take home some hardware. The two finished in front of Murray and behind Billie at the Capital City Meet and then went 1-2 at Ruidoso. 5. Patty Murray, St. Michael’s: Murray has been solid all season. (10th at UNM, 6th at Curtis Williams and 7th at Capital City.) Not bad for a #3. Best of the Rest: Arlinda Mitchell, Wingate; Camille Martinez and Sofia Torres, Pojoaque; Katie Behm, St. Mikes ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Boys: 4A Team Predictions: 1. Academy: The Chargers have won 6 titles in 7 years and have not lost to a New Mexico team this year. Academy is the favorite and a national power. 2. Los Alamos: LA is running well at the right time. The Hilltoppers can run with the Chargers through their 3rd man but fall off after that. 3. Capital: The Jaguars finished in front of LA at UNM but have fallen a bit since then. Injuries have hurt this group but they are getting healthy at the right time. 4. St. Pius X: Pius has a strong group of runners but their #4 and #5 will have to step up if they have hopes of taking home a square trophy. 5. Silver: The Colts early season top 3 performances (Alamogordo and Cobre) had people thinking that a southern team could contend in 4A. Silver returned their top 3 from last year and received an early Christmas present when foreign exchange student, Robert Krebbs, ended up being their #1 man. Best of the Rest: Piedra Vista, Española Individual Predictions: 1. Ryan McNiff, Los Alamos: Ryan is running hot at the right time. He finished the regular season with wins at the Capital City Invite and on his home course. 2. Ben Johnson, Academy: Ben has runner-up performances at 5 of the biggest meets in the State (UNM, Academy, Curtis Williams, Albuquerque City and Los Alamos). Could state be the day he comes in 1st? 3. Simon Gilna, Los Alamos: Simon was the runner-up last fall and seems to be getting healthy at the right time. We all know that it will rain red and green at the finish line we just don’t know the order. 4. Dustin Martin, Academy: A fast start by Dustin would set the stage for an interesting race. Dustin led the race at 2 miles last fall (and at the Curtis Williams Invite) and may have enough in him to finish the job this time. 5. Jeremy Newland, Aztec: Jeremy was 9 seconds ahead of Petty at the end of the Valley Invite. Luis Chavez will also be in the running for the 5th spot. Best of the Rest: Luis Chavez, Capital; Jason Petty, St. Pius X, Nathan Romero, Los Alamos ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Boys: 5A Team Predictions: 1. Highland: Nobody will underestimate Highland this November. Last state meet they snuck up on La Cueva to get within one point of the title. Their impressive showing at the Los Alamos Invite indicates they are timing their peak just like last fall. 2. La Cueva: the top ranked team in 5A was beaten by Sandia this past week. They ran without #2 man Jeff Dallman who Coach Clark cautiously held out. 3. Rio Rancho: The Rams were ranked in the top-10 of the SW Region early in the year. They hit a dry spell for a few weeks but bounced back this past weekend to end Gallup’s dominating 23-year win streak at the district meet. 4. Gallup: Once the superpower of the state the Bengals now must scratch and claw for a trophy like everyone else. There are at least 4 teams that can win the big school section. History and tradition may be enough to catapult the Bengals back on top. 5. Sandia: Each week Sandia gets better and better. The Matadors are beginning to understand why their new coach Curtis Williams is so uncompromising. Mr. Williams, on behalf of the kids and coaches from around the state, thank you for coming back home to New Mexico. Best of the Rest: Eldorado, Cibola Individual Predictions: 1. Tebo, Eldorado: Matt’s dominance in New Mexico has earned him the single named status usually reserved for supermodels and Brazilian Soccer players. Last November he won as a sophomore and the next two Novembers will determine if his name will be mentioned with the greats of New Mexico’s past. 2. Nick Arguellas, Highland: Nick finished off the regular season with a 3rd place finish at the Albuquerque City Championships and a 5th place performance at Los Alamos. His team needs for him to put up a low number if they expect to win the team title. 3. Matt Everett, La Cueva: Matt’s the nephew of former New Mexico standout and Foot Locker Finalist Chip Smith. Watching him run takes some of us old timers back 20 years. 4. Kevin McNally, Eldorado: Kevin has defeated everyone in 5A with the exception of Tebo. If he does it again on Saturday his team may take home a trophy. 5. Anthony Roybal, Cibola: Non-running related health problems will prohibit Anthony from being at 100% on Saturday. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Girls: 4A Team Predictions: 1. Academy: The Chargers have a deep team that is ready to step to the top of the podium. Academy finished off the regular season with a 55-65 2nd place effort to Eldorado and a 29 point win at Rio Rancho, without their #1 and #2. 2. Los Alamos: Don’t count the defending champs out too quick. They could have some magic left in their warm-ups. 3. St. Pius: The ladies from St. Pius X pack well. They’ll need to stick together to hold off KC and Taos. 4. Kirtland Central: Kirtland has been running under the radar most of the year. Look for the Lady Broncos to try and buck-off St. Pius from marching on to the podium. 5. Taos: Freshmen Stephanie Riley looks will try and lead the Tigers as they have hopes of moving up from their 4th place finish last November. Best of the Rest: Del Norte Individual Predictions: 1. Katie Wiederholt, Del Norte: Katie secured the favorite spot by holding off Harper in last weekend’s District 5 – 4A championships. 2. Lyndsay Harper, Academy: Lyndsay may need to pull out that 2:14, 800 meter speed to hold off Blum and the rest of 4A. 3. Ali Blum, Los Alamos: Ali is inheriting the role of the next great Hiltopper. At last weekend’s district meet she lead her `toppers to an impressive perfect-15. 4. Amanda Throckmorton, Academy: A&P (twins Amanda and Paige), as papa Throckmorton calls them, just may be enough for Academy to grocer a win in 4A. 5. Johniell Charles, Kirtland Central: Johniell was 7th last fall and has the fitness to run near the top this year. Best of the Rest: Analisa Sandoval, Los Alamos; Megan Stockton; Ashley Lovato Belen; Paige Throckmorton, Academy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Girls: 5A Team Predictions: 1. Eldorado: The Eagles are undefeated this year and defeated Gallup 23-37 two weeks ago on their home course. This weekend their closest competition will come from St. Michael’s in the combined team scores. 2. Gallup: The Bengals topped off their season with a 99 point victory at Grants. Gallup have had a solid season which included a runner-up performance 74-84 to regionally ranked St. Michael’s on their home course. 3. Sandia: It will be an interesting homecoming for the state’s most legendary coach. Curtis Williams has his team ready to go but they will have to settle for a lower position on the podium…this year. 4. Highland: Finished 1 point behind Sandia at the Albuquerque City Championship. Highland is strong 1-4 but may not have the depth to take home the green trophy. 5. Carlsbad: This may look like a sentimental southern pick but it is not. Carlsbad has the best 1-2 punch in 5A and may be deep enough to crack the top 5. The Best of the Rest: La Cueva, Clovis, Individual Predictions: 1. Vanessa Ortiz, Cibola: The winner of the UNM meet stumbled briefly at Gallup but rebounded to a course record at the Albuquerque City Meet. Vanessa should breeze to the title but she will be racing hard to run the fastest time of the day. 2. Julie Brasher, Eldorado: The year long #1 girl for the nationally ranked Eagles has grown up fast. But this shouldn’t surprise anyone who has watched this girl race regionally and nationally at Junior Olympics for a few years now. 3. Brandy Castillo, Carlsbad: The faster of the “Castillo twins” will battle fellow freshman Brasher for the red medal. Brandy has run some fast times in the southern part of the state and has ventured ‘up north’ to test her skill. 4. Jordan Brown, Gallup: Another in a long line of consistent Lady Bengals. 5. Geneva Torres, Rio Rancho: Geneva has had a solid yet unspectacular season. Will state be the day she breaks through? Best of the Rest: Brittany Castillo, Carlsbad; Kelly McCabe, Highland; Erin Madden, Eldorado, Carolyn Ehn, Albuquerque High, Terra Brown, Gallup
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