Handicapping Southern Nevada 4A Cross Country
In the tradition of the backbone of the Nevada economy, I have decided
to offer a prognosis of the likelihood of our 4A teams here in the South
making it to the State Championships in Reno come November. Cutting the
number of qualifying teams this year from six to four--two each from each
Region, Sunset and Sunrise--will make it extremely difficult for any long
shots or “dark horses” this year.
One caveat: this is all in fun and not to be taken too seriously. I’m
not about to take any wagers. Also, long odds are not a reflection of
disdain or disrespect for any program, coaches, or athletes.
(Phil Lawton)
Sunset Boys
Centennial-- 1:5. Coach Sam Richardson’s Bulldogs should be a lock
to qualify barring catastrophe. Although I have heard a rumor that their
top runner may not be running this fall--moving out of state--and another
top-five runner was left off Sam’s list of “returning runners,”
the transfer of the Davis’ twins, due to a move from Cheyenne to
the Centennial zone, should offset even those setbacks if they proved
to be true. Assuming he returns, junior Blake Schlotzhauher, runner-up
at State last fall, should be the team leader, along with seniors Pierce
Chandler and Andrew Carney. This team is talented and deep.
Durango-- Even Money. This may be Coach Jim Holben’s best team
since he took over the program at Durango. He has three solid returning
runners in seniors Robert Bennett and James Gibson and junior Matt Brack.
The program is awash in sophomore talent as well.
Palo Verde-- 3:2. The preseason Coaches Poll ranks the Panther boys number
two in the South but that has to be largely based on past reputation.
Coach O’Dea took at heavy hit with graduation, losing J.D. Whitehead
and Casey Lee. Transfer student Justin Proctor--returning from Pennsylvania--will
likely give the program a boost. The program is deep; no one recruits
better than Mike O’Dea.
Clark-- 4:1. Clark qualified for State last year but the tank appears
to be close to empty this year. Coach Paul Zwintscher has done wonders
in the past with small numbers but with Israel Zavala and Kumiye Hussein
gone to graduation, junior Riley Berry will be asked to carry a heavy
load.
Cheyenne-- 4:1. Another state qualifier from a year ago. Coach Fred Sowerby
put together a terrific boy’s team last fall but now most of them
are gone: graduated or transferred (see Centennial above). His only returning
top-five runner is junior Sidney Goodall. It will be a reach for Desert
Shield boys to repeat.
Cimarron-Memorial-- 6:1. The Spartans are another solid program but there
are no returning runners who even finished in the top 30 at Regionals
last year. The team’s best runner, Matthew Yadegar, graduated. Coach
Harold Vaughn will have to work some magic to get this team to State in
2003.
Bonanza-- 20:1. Coach Tyrone Hoard has a superb front runner in senior
Trevor Peterson, a state qualifier a year ago, and Jarad Glover and Anthony
Scott have shown potential, but the Bengals are a long shot to make it
to Reno.
Sierra Vista-- 50:1. This program has struggled ever since the school
opened a few years ago. Low numbers have been continual problem. No returning
Lion runner finished in the top 40 last year at Regionals.
Shadow Ridge-- 80:1. The “new kid on the block” is only given
this much of a chance because they picked up a half dozen Centennial runners
due to rezoning. Sophomore Kevin Pierce is one who of them. He could be
a “find.”
Mojave-- 100:1. For all of the success of the track program at Mojave,
it has never rubbed off on the cross country program. Jason Allen, now
a senior, was the only Rattler to crack the top 30 at Regionals last fall.
Coach Shenoa Fehr has her work cut out for her.
Bishop Gorman-- 100:1. Lack of numbers has always been a problem with
the Gorman cross country program. This year the numbers are up but don’t
expect miracles. Jimmy Mitchell, a junior, is the Gaels top runner. He
should improve on his 41st at Regionals last year. Watch out for freshman
Christian Oliver.
Western-- 500:1. (Even money the Warriors will field a full team.) Miracles
do happen. The U.S. hockey team did beat the Russians in the Olympics
back in the 80’s.
Sunset Girls
Centennial-- 1:4. The Lady Bulldogs were an easy qualifier in 2002 and
they graduated no one from their top seven. Coach Bill Miller’s
team is deep and talented, led by a bevy of seniors: Meghan Mathews, Laura
and Melissa O’Connor, LaNaya Wattree, and Sarah Purcell. If that’s
not enough they have junior Emily Bailey, who was 21st at Regionals last
year.
Palo Verde-- Even Money. Coach Robert Davis graduated three of his top
five--Kathryn Bigger, Natilie Fehrensen, and Dana Pinapfel--but he returns
his 1-2 from a year ago: Melissa Voss and Christina Culver. The program
is deep in talent and well coached.
Bishop Gorman-- 3:1. The fate of the Lady Gaels on October 31st will
likely hinge on whether or not Deleyna Jensen can come back from extensive
injuries. (She is expected to be back racing by mid October.) Led by the
Avena sisters, senior Christa--state champion in 2001--and sophomore Katie--the
best freshman in southern Nevada last fall--and junior Katie Fine--a state
qualifier in 2001--this is a team that could surprise. Coach Jessica Zarndt’s
energy, enthusiasm, and recent college running experience could be a real
plus as well.
Cimarron-Memorial-- 4:1. Natasha Wicks is off to college but Shoshanna
Yadegar returns for her senior year and with Jessica Scobell taking over
the coaching reigns, this is another program that has to be given short
odds. Whitney and Ashley Foltz and Kathleen Andrews give the Lady Spartans
three other returning runners from the team that qualified for State a
year ago.
Durango-- 8:1. The Lady Trailblazers were hard hit with graduation and
transfers but Coach Holben has recruited well and he returns his best
runner, junior Tasha Larson. Sophomores Lindsay Pardee and Amber Reynolds
should also be among the front runners on a team that just missed qualifying
for State a year ago.
Clark-- 30:1. Coach Zwintscher will have a superb front runner in Amanda
Gramly, who out of the chute, looks like “the girl to beat”
in southern Nevada, but he has little else, at least to start the season.
No other returning Charger girl broke 24 minutes at Regionals last fall.
Bonanza-- 50:1. It will take a massive recruiting effort on the part
of Coach Kacie Hoard if the Lady Bengals are to be heard from this year.
Only senior Elaine Collins (30th) was sub-24 at Regionals last fall and
three of the top four Bonanza runners have graduated.
Shadow Ridge-- 80:1. Like their male counterparts, the girls at this
new campus will be starting from scratch, but maybe not. To quote Coach
Miller of Centennial: “We lost 8-10 girls to Shadow Ridge, nothing
that will hurt us this year, but they’ll start with a decent program
and should win a couple of duals.”
Sierra Vista-- 100:1. The Lady Lions failed to put even five runners
on the line at Regionals last fall. Their best runner, Tammy Wynn (now
a junior), was injured and didn’t run at Regionals last year. The
only other athletes who did run last year have graduated. Massive recruiting
may help, but this is likely a “wait ‘till next year”
team.
Cheyenne-- 100:1. Another suffering program, at least for the girls.
Coach Sowerby only put four girls on the line at Veteran’s Memorial
Park last November at Regionals and none of them finished in the top 25.
Mojave-- 100:1. Ditto Cheyenne and Sierra Vista as far as incomplete
teams a year ago. The Lady Rattlers top runner from 2002 was Nixe Alvarez,
now a senior, who placed 29th at Regionals. No other Mojave girl was in
the top 50.
Western-- 500:1. The Lady Warriors did not have a single runner who competed
at Regionals last fall. All I can say is, Western should have one heck
of a volleyball team.
Sunrise Boys
Basic-- 1:5. The best weapon the Wolves have is their coach, Larry Burgess.
Basic boys teams--all coached by Coach Burgess--have qualified for 19
consecutive state meets, beginning in 1984. This year’s team will
be led by junior Josh Sillitoe, who was 12th in last year’s State
Meet. Other returning runners include senior Kayden and sophomore Kasey
Campbell and seniors Troy Stedman and German Marquez. Look for freshman
Chris Stiles to crack the top seven.
Chaparral-- Even Money. The Cowboys will be led by individual state champion
Patrick Swick and seniors Galen Smith and Agustin Luna (4th and 17th at
Regionals). Sophomore Robert Davis gives Coach Avis Allen a credible fourth
runner but after that the well is dry. The problem will be finding that
fifth runner. Chaparral has always been a “lean” program,
mean--ever since Patrick Swick arrived four years ago--but always lean.
Green Valley-- 3:2. The defending Sunrise champions may be hard pressed
to repeat. Gone is Jim Thorne (third at State); gone are top-four runners
James Hunt and Robert Ragan (both graduated); and gone is coach Jeff Doyle--retired
from coaching. But this is also a resilient program always with big numbers.
Beau McDougall, a junior, the number three runner on the team last year,
looked very strong at the recent Bristlecone Challenge. Senior Richard
Bean and junior Rob Stuart also return and even pole vaulter Danny Corrigan
is out of the team and looking good.
Coronado-- 5:1. Coach Steve Behm’s boys just missed making it to
State
last year. This year with one less qualifier it will be even tougher.
The Cougars lost two of their trio of stars with Alex Wilcox and Sean
Stafford off to college. Garron Combs, an individual state qualifier (He
nipped Beau by a second at the Bristlecone “fun run/time trial.”)
is back as a senior, but no other returning Coronado runner finished in
the top 25 at Regionals last November.
Silverado-- 8:1. The Skyhawks return their top runner, sophomore Raphael
Rodriguez Jr., a state qualifier in 2002, but Coach Whitaker graduated
three of his top five. The only other returning runner who finished in
the top 50 at the Regionals last fall is senior Matt McDonald (23rd).
However, this is a rich program and numbers are never a problem. They
could surprise.
Foothill-- 20:1. The Foothill boys underachieved big time last fall and
anchored the “Henderson Division” (not counting Vo Tech).
They do return four of their top seven, including senior Jason Owen and
junior Geoff DeFalco, who were 18th and 26th at Regionals. But with Coach
John Dixon unofficially retired from coaching, the Falcons aren’t
likely to earn a ticket on the bus to Reno in November.
Rancho-- 80:1. Coach Mike Gorsline is the eternal optimist, and he has
worked hard to make this a respectable program. He is touting that he’ll
have “almost 50” runners out for cross country this fall but
reality is a dish served cold. No Rancho runner cracked the top 30 at
Regionals last fall. And no Rancho runner has stood on the podium since
Brent Bowers won State in 1978. Still, all seven runners who ran at Regionals
return as seniors. Clint Johnson, who was 31st last November 2nd, was
the top runnin’ Ram in 2002.
Eldorado-- 100:1. The Sundevil boys are another team with little chance
to make it to State. Their number one runner, senior Chris Hoppie, could
make as an individual; he just missed last year, finishing 15th at Regionals.
However, the program is thin (only six runners toed the line at Veteran’s
Memorial Park last year) and the next Eldorado runner after Chris finished
48th.
Desert Pines-- 100:1. This is another struggling program. Last year the
Jaguar’s boys team--with only five runners entered--finished 7th
at Regionals, thanks to Oscar Garcia, who was 5th individually. Oscar
graduated in June. Judas Perez, a junior this fall, and Ivan Gonzalez,
a sophomore, are the top returning runners from a year ago. They were
37th and 48th at Regionals.
Vo Tech-- 100:1. Veteran coach Tony Kyriacou takes over as Head Coach
of the Roadrunners this fall. That’s the good news. The bad news
is that Coach Kyriacou’s best runner, Ray Rodriguez, has moved to
Cedar City where he will run for SUU this fall. This will be a very young
team, as it was last year. Mike Hartwell and Elliot Zaimez, both sophomores
this fall, were the next two finishers at Regionals and neither was able
to crack the top 40.
Liberty-- 100:1. I plead ignorance here. This is a new program at a new
school that initially didn’t even plan to field an athletic program
(Roman-Greco P.E. notwithstanding). They will surely have growing pains
their first year. Still, this is fertile recruiting country and there
is the likelihood that rezoning will bring in some experienced--albeit
young--runners from Silverado or other Henderson schools.
Las Vegas-- 100:1. Coach John Padilla has worked hard to make the cross
country program at Las Vegas High respectable, but he has had little success
recruiting. Only six boys made it to Regionals and the highest Wildcat
finisher was 44th.
Valley-- 200:1. The Viking boys failed to field a full team at Regionals
last fall and their top finisher Brian Frei, who finished a respectable
32nd, has graduated. Coach Andy Risheg faces a heavy task.
Sunrise Girls
Green Valley-- 1:4. Even with a new coach and one of their best runners,
Jackie Favreau, graduated, the Gators are loaded; it would be huge upset
if they fail to make it to State. They won their Region last year with
a score of 39 and return five of their top seven, including Lindsay Harris
(3rd at Zone and 15th at State). Tiffany Tandy, Staci DeGagne, Maxine
Peck, and Hannah Zane all finished 21st or better at the Regional and
all are back.
Foothill-- 3:2. The Foothill girls return their top five runners. Led
by seniors Megan Karl, runner-up at Regionals in 2002, and Megan Belingheri,
seventh at Regionals, the Lady Falcons have a good chance to repeat their
second-place finish from last fall. Kelli Nelson, a sophomore, and Alissa
Nelson and Randee Worthen, both juniors, all finished in the top 20 at
Regionals last year. The unknown factors will be a new coach and incoming
runners. No other returning Falcon girl finished in the top 40 at Regionals.
Basic-- 3:1. At first glance the Lady Wolves are in big trouble as far
as making it to State this fall. Lost to graduation are their two top
runners, Sam Serrano and Renee Caseman; and their number three runner,
senior Brienna Krahenbuhl, has left the program, apparently. This leaves
Caprice Hughes, Courtney Durand, and Ashley Perkins, who finished 23-24-27
last fall at Regionals, not exactly eye-opening stats. But Coach Burgess
usually finds a way. The Lady Wolves have qualified for State 17 times
in the past 21 years. The wise guys Don’t bet against the RunninWlf.
Coronado-- 15:1. Coach Behm has had better success with his boys than
his girls. Only six runners were entered at Regionals last fall and the
Lady Cougars fourth-place finish with 145 points won’t come close
to getting it done this year, with only two team qualifiers. This was
a very young team last year with the five top finishers all sophomores
and freshmen. Courtney Rowe and Jesse Trumbo, now juniors, finished 9th
and 20th at Regionals last year and will likely be the team leaders again
this fall, assuming they return.
Silverado-- 25:1. The Lady Skyhawks have struggled in recent years and
the program is not likely to turn around this year, based on returning
runners. Junior Kelly Fernandez was fifth at Regionals last fall but was
a big gap behind her. Number-two runner Rachel Combs has graduated and
the other Silverado girls finished between 35 and 50.
Rancho-- 75:1. Based on Mike Gorsline’s enthusiastic report of
a big turnout of runners this year, the Lady Rams are projected to lead
the Northeast Division, for what that’s worth. All seven of Coach
Gorsline’s girls are back. Seniors Erin Forget and Katrina Opena
and junior Jennifer Arthurholtz finished 23-31-30 at Regionals last fall.
Eldorado-- 100:1. It would take a minor miracle to get the Lady Sundevils
to State. Their best runner Yolonda Chee, fourth at Regionals a year ago
and a three-time state qualifier, has graduated. Catlin Cummins, who will
be a senior, finished 17th last year at Regionals, but the program lacks
depth with only five runners competing at the Regional in 2002.
Las Vegas-- 100:1. Six of Coach Danya Wilson’s top seven from a
year ago could return, including Giselle Fajardo, their number one runner.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that no Lady Wildcat runner
finished higher than 25th at Regionals and the team finished next to last.
Liberty-- 100:1. See comments re. Liberty boys.
Vo Tech--100:1. Like their male counterparts, this is a very young team
with few experienced runners. The Lady Roadrunner’s best runner
last fall was a freshman, Danielle Bussell, who placed 36th at Regionals.
Five of the other six finishers were sophomores but none of them made
it to the top 40.
Valley-- 200:1. The Lady Vikings barely managed to field a team, having
only five runners at the Regional. Senior Robyn Vasatka, 26th at Regionals
last November, was the only runner to run under 24 minutes for the 5K.
Desert Pines-- 200:1. Six Lady Jaguars were entered at Regionals last
fall. Three of the six have graduated, including their 2-5 runners. The
top returning runner from last fall was Denise Gonzalez (31st), who will
be a senior this year.
Chaparral-- 200:1. Coach Allen was unable to field a full team last fall;
only four runners ran at Regionals. The good news is that all four could
be back this fall, including Janelle Sanchez, who finished 9th and qualified
for State. Unfortunately, none of the other three Lady Cowboys finished
in the top 40.
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