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June 14-16, 2007 Greensboro NC

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steveu's Predictions - Boys

by Steve Underwood, DyeStat news editor

Boys Distances

The Buzz: Intense, as always. The 2M and Mile are almost always super-hyped and fans love the Craig Forys NJ -Matt Centrowitz MD showdown in the deuce (with Evan Jager IL and many others, as well), and the potential of Sam Borchers OH in the mile. Both races are also extremely deep (10 under 4:09 1600; 18 under 9:04 3200). The 800 is, too, (8 under 1:52; 18 under 1:53) and with two sub-1:50 guys, it gets an extra boost.

The 5k is getting more popular, with entries up to 57 and four sub-9:10 runners, and the steeple will have a little buzz with Ryan McDermott NY having a meet and outside national record shot.

What 2 Watch 4: In the 2M, Forys and Centrowitz both have 4:03-04 mile speed, can execute long finishing drives, and have solid kicks. Matt’s disadvantage, though, could be that he simply isn’t yet experienced at racing 8:48-8:55 pace. Look for someone like Arcadia champ Luke Puskedra UT to help keep the pace honest enough that at least high-8:40s is possible, maybe 4:25-26 first mile. That would spread out the field in warm conditions. The best candidates to break up the party at the top are last year’s #3 finisher, Jager, who has returned to top form the last 3 weeks, and Paul Springer PA, who has the #2 time and has beaten Forys at other distances.

In the mile, with Borchers’ overall talent, and almost unmatched ability to surge and kick, it’s his race to win or lose. But, despite what he did last spring, his fast 800s (1:48-49 relays/1:51 opens), and his NIN win in March, there’s still the lack of even another sub-4:10 1600 on his resume and still a lot of mystery around him. Hubers is the obvious next choice, as the top returnee off last year’s third, with a third again at NIN, and consistent 4:06-4:08 1600 times this spring. Behind those two, the field has been turned upside down. Just last weekend, Thebeau, Edwards and Hilditch all exploded into the top five of the field with 1600/miles of 4:08 or faster. Down in the 10-spot, Joseph Franklin FL showed scary talent in winning his state meet and took the Golden West 800 in 1:51+ last weekend.

The 800 should be a fast, exciting affair. Dylan Ferris NC, just a junior, seems to be just beginning to tap his talent as he’s joined the sub-1:50 club, and NJ Meet of Champs winner Sharif Webb is on a fast acceleration curve as well. Cory Primm CA, after a disappointing loss at NIN, has been at or near the top all spring, highlighted by Arcadia and CIF titles. James Gilreath TN had a fast win over Chris Bilbrew AL at Mobile, then hit his 1:50.12 in the mixed race at Music City. Primm’s experience, in the end, gives him a slight edge.

Ryan McDermott NY has been 8th and 2nd in the 2k ST the past two years and is probably due to take it. His 9:08.11 several weeks ago put him #10 all-time on 3k list, but then he was upset by Christian Thompson (not running here) at NY State.

With his 9:00.20 from CT State Open, Adam Vess has really raised the profile of this 5k event. The winning time could be around 14:40 if the conditions are decent. Super soph Doug Smith NJ will benefit from having run this on the track earlier this spring, something few others can boast.

The sport’s best male racewalkers, the Veragas brothers of Texas, are not entered this spring, so Taylor Burns ME is the favorite.

Record Possibilities: The meet (5:49.11) and national (5:43.9) mark could fall in the steeple, and the 5k meet record (14:48.73) should go down. The top finishers have a shot at meet records in the mile (4:02.01), 2-mile (8:44.43), and 800 (1:48.51).

The Predictions:

2-Mile: 1. Craig Forys NJ, 2. Matt Centrowitz MD, 3. Evan Jager IL. Winning time: 8:45.0

Mile: 1. Sam Borchers OH, 2. Ben Hubers GA, 3. Joe Franklin FL. Winning time: 4:05.5.

800: 1. Cory Primm CA, 2. Dylan Ferris NC, 3. Sharif Webb NJ. Winning time: 1:49.8

5k: 1. Adam Vess CT, 2. Doug Smith NJ, 3. Mike Spooner VA. Winning time: 14:45.0

2k Steeple: 1. Ryan McDermott NY, 2. Phil Cawkwell NY, 3. Taylor Morgan OR. Winning time: 5:45.5

1 Mile Walk: 1. Taylor Burns ME, 2. Matthew Forgues ME, 3. Grant Bacon ME

 

Boys Distance Relays

The Buzz: Fairly high. The boys distance relays are always good at NON, but there isn’t that super buzz like there was, for instance, the year Alan Webb was anchoring South Lake VA’s DMR. The best event should be the 4x 1Mile, although that’s also the most unpredictable. Team’s with great marks coming in haven’t often bettered them here and it’s rarer to see a team hit its potential than in the other two long relays.

What 2 Watch 4: In the boys 4x 1Mile, look for things to come down to the final leg, and probably the final lap for Collegiate NY and Trabuco Hills CA. Then we’ll see who can kick best between respective anchors Chris Williams and J.T. Sullivan. We probably won’t see anything in the mid-7:30s or better in the 4x800 this year, but top seed Cleveland Heights hasn’t really been pushed. Look for them to start pulling away early and win with relative comfort. In the DMR, Willmar MN, Kroy (York) IL, and Jackolope (Pinckney) MI all have fast seed times, but the national leader is La Sierra CA (10:09). Seeded right behind La Sierra is Colts Neck NJ, which all but ensures that this will be another “can-Craig-Forys-catch-the-leader” scenario. With one of the Knight twins anchoring La Sierra, it will be tough.

Record Possibilities: The meet/national marks for the 4x8 (7:32.89) and DMR (9:49.78) are well beyond this year’s entries. The 4x1 Mile meet record of 17:18.33 set by Fay-Man NY last year could well go, but it will take a superior effort to get that 17:06.6 USR from 31 years ago.

The Predictions:

4x 1Mile: 1. Collegiate NY, 2. Trabuco Hills CA, 3. Chardon OH. Winning time: 17:20.5

Distance Medley: 1. La Sierra CA, 2. Colts Neck NJ, 3. Guilderland NY. Winning time: 10:06.0

4x800: 1. Cleveland Heights OH, 2. Kroy (York) IL, 3. Danbury CT. Winning time: 7:39.8

Boys Sprints/Hurdles (revised 6/15)

The Buzz: Moderate to high, depending how serious a track fan you are. Some will be disappointed that Bryshon Nellum is not in the 200 and 400, but it’s his graduation weekend, so he’s reportedly shooting for USATFs next week. While the 100 and 200 are somewhat lacking in star power, the 400 is still a super-loaded event, with 10 at 47.01 or better.  This is despite a great potential showdown between Antonio McKay and Sean Holston being diffused by a late injury to McKay. We could see a sub-46, even without the Long Beach Poly and McEachern GA stars.

The 400H race should please any serious track fan. While most of these guys aren’t experienced at this distance, this year has set a new standard in the 300H with Jeshua Anderson’s USR, 2 of the fastest 3 times ever run, and a record 5 under 36.10 in one year. All but one of those 5 (Robert Griffin TX) will be here and a sub-50 could be in the cards, which has only been done by four preps in the past. The 110H field, led by defending champ Johnny Dutch (also in the 400H) is pretty strong, too.

What 2 Watch 4: Off his summer racing last year, William Wynne GA is the fastest of the top seeds in the 400H. The key will be if the faster (in 300H) Anderson can make the adjustment to the longer race. If he doesn’t, then someone like NJ champ Emmanual Meyers, with his 51.98, is right in the mix. Super soph Reggie Wyatt (35.90 300H) is improving by leaps and bounds and will be a factor, as well (His 35.90 behind Anderson in the California state meet 300H is a national sophomore class record). Then there’s Johnny Dutch, whose better race is the 110H, where he should repeat, but who would like to make up for last year’s DQ (and this year’s 300H state meet loss to Spencer Adams) here. North Carolina has 4 of the top 8 110H seeds. Could they sweep the medals?

Holston should be a candidate for at least low 46 in the 400, with Brandon Bing PA and Gil Roberts OK moving into prime medal contention with the injury to McKay. TX and NC runners should battle it out in the 100 and 200. It’s not easy to get top TX talent here, with their state meet so early, but Whitney Provost (10.45/20.99) and Mychal Dungey (20.87) are solid. Trenton Guy Jr, fresh off of Golden South wins, plus Trevor Graham and Antonio Sales lead the NC charge.

Record Possibilities: The meet records in the 110H (13.32) and 400H (49.79) could fall, with the 49.38 US standard reachable maybe for Anderson if he really adjusts well. The 100 and 400 flat records are tough, but the 200 meet standard is just 20.76 – a “maybe” for this crowd.

The Predictions:

100: 1. Whitney Provost TX, 2. Trenton Guy Jr. NC, 3. Terrell Wilks CT. Winning time: 10.38.

200: 1. Trenton Guy Jr., 2. Ryan Bailey OR, 3. Mychal Dungey TX. Winning time: 20.88.

400: 1. Sean Holston VA, 2. Brandon Bing PA, 3. Gil Roberts OK. Winning time: 46.30.

110H: 1. Johnny Dutch NC, 2. Charlton Rolle NC, 3. Spencer Adams NC. Winning Time: 13.42.

400H: 1. Jeshua Anderson CA, 2. Reggie Wyatt CA, 3. William Wynne VA. Winning time: 50.02.

 

Boys Sprint Relays (revised)

The Buzz: Moderate. There won’t be anything like that roar you heard at Penn, when Long Beach Poly was doing its thing against the Jamaicans in the 4x400, but in almost every race there’s reasonable depth and a very, very good team at the top.

What 2 Watch 4: In both the 4x1 and 4x2, Fort Bend Hightower, known here as “Team Texas,” has a solid edge on the field. The question is whether they’ve been training hard enough in the last 5 weeks, without a meet to maintain that edge. In the 4x1, their US#2 40.57 is just .01 off the US lead, which was achieved by Klein Forest TX in the same 5A State meet race. They have almost half a second on South Shore NY, which is another .29 ahead of Cahokia IL. Look for that battle for 2nd to be much closer.

Hightower also has the US#1 mark in the 4x2, 1:23.92, and is more than a second ahead of the next two seeds, Miami FL Northwestern and Madison OH Trotwood. The same Hightower quartet is set to go in both races.

The top California teams, Long Beach Poly (graduation) and JW North (only Reggie Wyatt), are not here, so the battle will be between several teams in the 3:13-3:15 range.  Monmouth, with the Cox brothers, could be the quartet to pull it out.

The 1600 sprint medley should belong to Track Eastern/New Bern NC. Even without non-graduated Karjuan Williams, this team has speed to bern, er, burn. They hit 3:24.5 several weeks ago with a young and talented group. They will have to have a lead of a few seconds, though, to hold off East Forsyth NC anchor Dylan Harris in the 800. The 800 SMR, without US#1 and record-holder LB Poly, is up in the air between several 1:30-31 types.

Record Possibilities: Hightower is just 0.25 short of the 4x2 meet record, and 0.61 behind the national record, both by O.D. Wyatt TX in 1998. New Bern set the meet record with last year’s group; they have 2 seconds to cut to reach that and another 1.32 for the USR. The others are probably out of reach.

The Predictions:

4x100: 1. Team Texas, 2. Cahokia IL, 3. Miami Northwestern FL. Winning time: 40.65

4x200: 1. Team Texas, 2. Trotwood OH, 3. Racer X (West Charlotte NC). Winning time: 1:24.25.

4x400: 1. Monmouth NJ, 2. Cleveland Heights OH, 3. East St. Louis IL.  Winning time: 3:13.15.

1600 Sprint Medley: 1. New Bern NC, 2. East Forsyth NC, 3. Don Bosco NJ. Winning time: 3:23.00

800 Sprint Medley: 1. Willingboro NJ, 2. Teaneck NJ, 3. DeMatha MD. Winning time: 1:30.30.

 

Boys Throws

The Buzz: Pretty big. Each of the four throws have major individual stars that will bear watching. This is most true in the HT, with Walter Henning NY, and the shot, with Jimmie Pacifico OH. Luke Bryant and Iain Trimble, a pair of Kansas stars, also bear watching.

What 2 Watch 4: Having just missed his USR last week at Golden West, Henning will make probably his final attempt with the HS implement this weekend. The future of the event, in new 243-footer and late entry Conor McCullough, will also be there and Henning will have to be at his best for the win. In the shot, with Michael Carter’s legendary 81-03 still 10 feet beyond him, Pacifico won’t be shooting for records, but will hope to move into at least the 72s and into the top 5 on the all-time list. He won’t be pushed unless he has an off day.

Bryant is actually the #2 seed with 205 in the DT, but has been far more consistent than top seed Geoffrey Tabor OK. Trimble has also been extremely consistent in a very inconsistent event.

Record Possibilities: Henning obviously could break his own record of 255-11 and McCullough will shoot to at least bust his new soph mark, if not Henning’s 2006 MR of 247-00 or more. The other throws marks should be safe.

The Predictions:

Shot Put: 1. Jimmie Pacifico OH, 2. Benjamin Stephen IN, 3. Joe Kovacs PA. Winning mark: 72-03

Discus: 1. Luke Bryant KS, 2. Nick Brayton IA, 3. Geoffrey Tabor OK. Winning mark: 207-06

Javelin: 1. Iain Trimble KS, 2. David Musson WA, 3. Chase Dalton OR. Winning mark: 226-00.

Hammer: 1. Walter Henning NY, 2. Conor McCullough CA, 3. Wes Wright GA. Winning mark: 257-00.

 

Boys Jumps

The Buzz: Not bad. The best buzz should be in the pole vault, where Spencer McCorkel AR is back and vaulting strong after recovering from a hand injury, and in the high jump, where 7-03 and 7-04 jumpers Grant Lindsey TX and Randal Carter NE will do battle.

What 2 Watch 4: McCorkel seems to have overcome his consistency issues and has been over 17 feet several times this year. With Maston Wallace TX not in the field, he should be able to beat the only others to beat 17’ in the field, super soph Corey Shank (the future of the event) and Casey Roche, the 17-05 performer who’s struggled with injury. High jump fans will be thrilled to watch Carter in his first national meet and hope to see 7-05 or better.

The horizontal jumps, on the other hand, are wide open. Marquise Goodwin, another nice Texas catch for this meet, has been pretty consistent with legal 24-6 to 25-0 jumps. He’s got to rate a slight edge. In the TJ, #2 seed Tyron Stewart TX seems to have the best season of marks, but really any of those seven at 49-00 or better have to rate a good chance for gold.

Record Possibilities: Most of the jump records are truly not for the faint of heart. Carter or Lindsey has a shot the 7-04.50 HJ meet mark, but the 7-07 USR is WAY out there. If McCorkel has a good day, he will top Mike Morrison’s MR 17-03 from last year, but Tommy Skipper’s 18-03 is too tough. The same basically holds true for the set of long jump records (25-06.75 and 26-09.25), while both triple jump marks are probably safe.

The Predictions:

High Jump: 1. Randal Carter NE, 2. Grant Lindsey TX, 3. Paul Annear WI. Winning mark: 7-05

Pole Vault: 1. Spencer McCorkel AR, 2. Corey Shank IN, 3. Kevin Schipper IN. Winning mark: 17-05.50

Long Jump: 1. Marquise Goodwin TX, 2. Zedric Thomas LA, 3. Bradley Starks VA. Winning mark: 24-06.50

Triple Jump: 1. Tyron Stewart TX, 2. Zedric Thomas LA, 3. Chrys Jones KY. Winning mark: 50-06

 



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