Oregon State Meet Preview by Dave Devine There will be two distinct storylines unfolding in the large school division of the Oregon state cross country championships at Lane Community College on Saturday, and both will likely contribute to a feeling of déjà vu among high school fans. The girls’ race stands a very good chance of being a coronation ceremony for a team that has carved out a dynasty over the last five years. Jesuit of Portland, ranked #1 in the DyeStat Northwest polls all season, is poised to collect their sixth straight state title, after beating Sunset handily last fall for number five. The boy’s 6A race, meanwhile, is shaping up to be a repeat battle for a hotly contested crown, with the two teams which have divided the last five large school trophies—NW#3 Central Catholic and NW#5 Jesuit—reliving the ’06 throwdown that saw Central Catholic take the win by a mere two points. Three weeks ago at the Adidas Classic—a meet which has become a barometer of state meet match-ups in the last few years—Central Catholic impressed with their 59-94 win over an off-form Jesuit squad. But last week, both teams looked formidable at their respective district meets, and Coach Rothenberger will surely have his Jesuit charges primed for a closer contest in Eugene on Saturday. Here’s a quick look at a class-by-class breakdown of some of the favorites in each race: Boys 6A
Team The battle for first should be between a Central Catholic team hitting on all cylinders at just the right time, and a Jesuit squad which entered the season amid high expectations, and is now rebounding behind revitalized leader Brian Manning. Lincoln High, last year’s third place team only 6 points behind runner-up Jesuit, was dismantled by graduation and top returner Nathan Mathabane’s decision to compete in open races this fall, which leaves several teams battling for the other podium positions. North Medford, South Eugene and West Salem have all looked strong this autumn, while Grant High has flown somewhat under the radar, but could surprise with a surge into trophy contention. Individual A runner from Central Catholic has won the last five large school individual titles (Galen Rupp ’02, ’03; Kenny Klotz ’04, ’05; Taylor Morgan ’06), and since Morgan returns as a senior attempting to continue that streak, he must be considered a factor. With the state course finishing on the track with a 300 meter sprint, Morgan’s 1:52 800 meter chops certainly come into play. The challenge, of course, is that he’ll have to be close enough to Franklin senior Bryce Burgess to unfurl that kick, and there is no guarantee of that happening. Burgess has looked like a champion-in-waiting his few serious races this fall, and anyone else will be hard-pressed to beat him. Morgan may not even be the most likely candidate on his own team, with the rise of sophomore Musa Ahmed as a contender. Brian Manning of Jesuit, laid low with a mid-season illness, seems fit and ready to roll now, after a 15:38 scorcher at the Metro District meet. Leo Castillo (Hood River), Nathan Knutson (Grant), Dave Marks (Lakeridge), Josh Paul (North Bend), Samot Turina (Central Catholic) and Manning’s teammate Peter Maag have all looked impressive as well, and should be in the mix up front. Girls 6A Team It speaks volumes about the strength of the Jesuit girls team this season, that the #3-ranked team in the Northwest—St. Mary’s Academy—is in the race with the Crusaders on Saturday, and will be hard-pressed to present a serious challenge. Jesuit’s top two of Adrienne McGuirk and Noelle VanRysselberghe couldn’t look stronger right now, while St. Mary’s number one, Alexandra Jones, is nursing a sore IT band that kept her from the district meet. St. Mary’s strength is in their tight pack, but with Maria Salazar soaring to a huge PR last week and Jesuit’s stunning depth, St. Mary’s will have difficulty weaving that pack into Jesuit’s top five in a way that would produce an upset. After these top two, South Eugene looks like a strong contender for third, with Tualatin, Sunset and Westview all fielding strong units as well. Individual Jesuit’s Noelle VanRysselberghe led Adrienne McGuirk in last fall’s state meet (4th and 5th), but this season McGuirk has looked fantastic, most recently destroying the course record at the Metro District meet with a blazing 17:36. No one else in the field even has a mark under 18, with the closest being VanRysselberghe, owner of several 18-flat clockings. Those two should go 1-2, with Gresham’s super soph Khalia Tidwell, Hood River’s Erin Jones, Lincoln’s Betsy Kolberg, Centennial’s Michelle Dettman, and a healthy Alexandra Jones from St. Mary’s all in close contention. Boys 5A Team The NW#1 Crater Comets should cruise to the 5A title behind the Elliott brothers, but if they’re caught looking ahead to the NTN Northwest Regional in Boise next week, a tough squad from Hermiston, featuring a pair of brothers as well (the Ringe’s), could certainly swoop in and challenge. After that, Ashland could be battling it out with Century, Cleveland, Sherwood and Summit for podium positions. Individual Marshfield’s Jared Bassett has some of the fastest times of the season, but could be challenged by any one of several Crater runners for the individual win (Zach or Josh Elliott, a healthy Ryan Santana), as well as Hermiston’s Jordan Ringe or Terry Johnsen, and Springfield’s Tim Costin. Don’t count out Bend’s Scott Gage, who ran away from the Adidas Classic division 1 field with a blistering opening mile. Girls 5A Team This could be a sweep for the Crater Comets, with the girls’ team, while not as highly ranked as the boys in the multi-state NTN region, certainly looking like the class of the Oregon 5A field. Summit, with a healthy Alyssa O’Connor, might have challenged, but she is unfortunately injured for the second state meet in a row, and her teammates may lack the upfront firepower to take down the Comets. Crescent Valley and Corvallis are two other teams that have looked strong, while state 1-2 finishers from last year, Ashland and Hermiston, will undoubtedly be looking to get back on the podium. Individual No team in 5A features a better top three than Crook County, and all three come from the same family. Lacking the depth to qualify a team for the state meet, the Foley sisters will still be unmistakable upfront, likely led by senior Michelly, who has the fastest time in the classification this fall. Not far behind will be sisters Kellie (fr) and Leslie (so), as well as Crater’s lead duo of Kayleigh Tyerman and Riley Swanson. The aforementioned Alyssa O’Connor would have been a factor individually, but in her absence has emerged perhaps the revelation of the fall: Summit teammate and state sprint champion Kellie Schueler finding the legs for 5k. She has a PR of 19:15 from her October 27th conference meet, and does anyone think she wouldn’t have a chance if she manages to hit the 300-meter track finish within closing distance of the leaders? Boys 4A Team Last year North Bend won a close race with Estacada, and they could find themselves in a battle for their title defense this year, but the contenders will be Marist, who look to have the edge after several impressive performances this season. Most likely fighting for the bronze will be Sisters and Hidden Valley, among others. Individual The boys’ 4A individual race could be among the best of the day, with Spenser Lynass of North Bend the top returner from last year and holding the added incentive of a tight team race, and Phoenix junior Elliott Jantzer hot on his heels in third last fall, and likely to be pushing to the wire again this year. After those two, Lynass’ North Bend running mate Trevor Berrian and Marist top gun Matt Hollander figure to be among those racing for third. Girls 4A Team Siuslaw have won three state titles in a row, and they’ll be back and going for number four on Saturday. Molalla, Sisters, North Bend and Phoenix would be likely challengers to the title, with Molalla runners-up last fall and seeking to reverse that order this November. Individual Henley junior Taylor Wallace is way out there in this classification, with the next closest competitors likely to be Marist senior Meghan Whalen and Ally Manley of Brookings-Harbor, a freshman who presents the dangerous possibility ninth grade girls always do, of running way beyond expectations in the state meet race.
Boys 1A-2A-3A Team In last year’s state meet Catlin Gabel defeated Westside Christian with four in the top 20, and both teams will be back to make another push again, likely opposed by Union, Oakridge, and Southwest Christian. Individual Catlin Gabel’s top pair of Sam Estrem and Ian Wayne will have a title defense motivating their run, but they’ll have their hands full with Max Long (Oakridge), Jacob Bowdoin (New Hope Christian), and Caleb Goins (East Linn Christian), among others. Girls 1A-2A-3A Team The girls of Catlin Gabel will be back to defend a state title that contributed to a 2006 sweep of the 1A-2A-3A titles by the Eagles, and they’ll meet fierce opposition from St. Mary’s and Heritage Christian, among others. Individual Lakeview’s Ashley Baldovino won this race last year as a freshman, and she’s a strong bet to repeat in 2007. Challenging for second could be Catlin Gabel’s number one, Hayley Ney, as well as East Lin Christian’s Amy Renfro, both of whom have a number of individual wins on the season.
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