Loaded Eastern States, Jarrett-Smith Showdown, Danbury-Oakton Clash are big highlights

By Matt Soja,

Dyestat Northeast Editor

Every year the second weekend of October means one thing at Van Cortlandt Park in the Bronx – another Manhattan Invitational. It’s arguably the biggest, most storied, most famous, and deepest invitational in the country. Every fall it impresses the spectators, makes and breaks the runners’ and teams’ hopes and dreams for the season, answers questions about how good some teams really are, resolves many arguments among the fans of the sport, and creates even more of them for the months to come.

This year will be no different. Once again, thousands upon thousands of runners from Maine to Florida (and even Canada) will converge upon the flats of the most famous cross country course in the nation, if not the world. Hundreds of tents will spring up in the muddy grass, the final 550m straightaway will be lined with spectators five people deep, the hot dog and ice cream vendors will have the best day of their year, and yes, there will be races. So many of them, in fact, that they will go off every 12 minutes, making for the most entertaining 3 hours of the cross country season as 13 exceptional varsity races finish between 1:30 and 4 PM. If this does not satisfy a hardcore cross country fan, nothing will.

The current edition of Manhattan has a very strong field as usual, with most of the best teams on the East Coast entered, but the real treat is the girls Eastern States Championship race, which could be the deepest race anywhere in the nation until NTN Nationals. The unusual distance of 2.5 miles and the gorgeous weather forecast for Saturday (sunny and low 60s) should combine to produce an unforgettable meet.

GIRLS EASTERNS (2:37 PM)

Where should one even begin writing the preview about this race? Let’s start with some eye-opening stats.

• Out of the 31 teams on the starting line, as many as 19 are currently ranked in top 10 or on the bubble in their respective region.

• Five of the best seven New York teams, six of the best eight in the Northeast (including all of the top three), as well as three of the top eight in the Southeast, will race against each other!

• The #1 team from each of the three regions is included.

• Six of last year’s top seven are back.

• Even individually, eight of the top 10 girls from New York will toe the line with a galaxy of stars from surrounding states right next to them.

In other words, this is THE RACE to watch, not only at this meet but this whole season. Not until Nike Team Nationals, almost two months from now will we see such a collection of talent, accomplishment, and hunger for national fame in just one race. It will certainly be a better race than any state meet in the US and probably also better than any NTN Regional meet. The spectacular depth will certainly favor teams with a good pack and not necessarily those with the best frontrunners.

The favorite to win this clash of the titans is naturally the defending NTN champion, Fayetteville-Manlius NY. They defeated the #2 team in their state, Burnt Hills, at the McQuaid Invitational two weeks ago, despite the fact their best two girls did not score. If they are back in 100% shape, FM should take this one and establish themselves as firm favorites to win the Federation meet, if not the NTN championship again.

The defending champions from Midlothian VA would love to repeat last year’s upset of the top teams in the North. The best team in the Southeast, they have almost everyone back from last year and are coming off a dominating performance at the Maymont Invitational, where they won by 44 points over strong interstate field. If anyone can stop FM, this should be it!

The best team in Northeast, Hanover NH, has not faced much national-level competition, except for Manchester Invitational three weeks ago whey they lost to Burnt Hills. Based on that, they probably will not knock out the first two teams but could lay down a solid challenge for third. They will be hard-pressed to defend their regional throne against Bowdoin Invitational winners Voorhees NJ (currently NE #2) who looked solid in winning their Shore Coaches Invitational race last Saturday. But the real sleeper could be Emmaus PA, ranked right behind the Jersey girls, because Christina Faust is back from her appendectomy layoff to join the rest of the triplets in what could be the best 1-2-3 at the meet.

Warwick Valley NY has been unstoppable this fall, winning meets on both coasts, including Pepperdine Inviational in California. They have a very tight pack and are looking to move up from #3 in the state – this could be their day to do it. They were only 10^th last year but have almost everyone back.

The other ranked New York teams are Greenwich Central (#4, although there is scuttlebutt about them going to the Burnt Hills meet instead), Saratoga Springs (#6 – they were third last year, although they have been tested only once this year, winning a meet in Virginia), and Shenendehowa (#7, finished third at Bowdoin losing to Voorhees and Greenwich).

Lincoln-Sudbury MA (fifth in the Northeast rankings) has some experience in big meets, finishing 7^th at Bowdoin and 5^th at Ocean State, but here they will need to improve substantially if they want another such placing against even stronger competition. Monsignor Donovan NJ (NE #7) won its division at Shore Coaches last week without its best girl, but this will be a completely different race in terms of both weather and competition. Also, Bromfield MA (NE #8) has run only one major meet this year, finishing 6^th at Ocean State, and it remains to be seen if they are race-sharp or ready to confront such a huge competition.

The other two ranked teams come from the Southeast. Blacksburg VA (SE #6) is just coming off a victory at Octoberfest Invitational against tough competition and 4^th place at Maymont, which was their breakout meet. And Tatnall DE (SE #8), a small school, finished 6^th at Maymont.

Additionally, there are several bubble teams which probably will not threaten the top dogs but are worth mentioning to emphasize the quality and depth of the field. Hilton, Holy Names, and Johnson City are all solid NY teams and would be in contention in any other meet. Central Cambria PA is a bubble team from the Northeast and Brentsville VA from the Southeast, one of the few schools in the country to be mentioned in the rankings for both genders.

Almost in the shadow of this tremendous team competition will be the race for individual trophies. If you believe in speed ratings computed by Mr. Bob Meylan on his website tullyrunners.com, almost everybody from top 10 in New York will be here. The highest rated girl in the state, Hannah Davidson of Saratoga, is also the defending champion and a three-time Foot Locker finalist, so she should be the favorite. Fayetteville-Manlius’s best two girls, Hannah Luber and Kathryn Buchan, are ranked third and fourth respectively while their teammate Jocelyn Richards is 8^th. It will not be surprising if all three finish in top 20 to lead FM to victory. Mary Kate Champagne of Seton Catholic is number 5 while Warwick Valley’s Tori Pennings is #7, but her teammate Lillan Greibesland could be right with her. Finally, Caitlin Lane of Greenwich (#9) is a 2-time Footlocker finalist, as is Shelby Greany of Suffern (#10), who finished 3^rd last year.

What do other states have to offer against such an onslaught of New Yorkers? How about Foot Locker finalists of their own, such as Emily Jones from Bromfield who finished 4^th here last year and has defeated Lane by 3 seconds (18:04 to 18:07) at Ocean State? Another one is Carly Seymour from Central Cambria who was 6^th here last year. Not a Foot Locker finalist, but Georgia Griffin from Hanover NH will definitely be close to the podium, as she has been dominating the New England competition, wining among other the Manchester Invitational. The Lautzenheiser sisters (Kathleen and Leia) from Midlothian VA are back after placing in top 20 last year, as are the Faust triplets from Emmaus. There are many others, including Melanie Thompson (Voorhees), Sarah Pagano (Immaculate Heart NJ), and Meghan Lutz (Nazareth PA) who are likely to break into top 20 individually, but it’s going to be easy to overlook them in such an amazing field.

GIRLS A (2:49 PM)

With almost all of the best teams stuffed into the championship race, there is not much wealth to go around for the other six varsity races, only with a few exceptions. The A division is not one of them as traditional power Colonie NY should win this one without any major threat. The only unknown is whether the Canadian team from Thousand Islands, Ontario can produce a surprising performance south of its border.

GIRLS B (3:01 PM)

This is also a pretty weak field, and Corning NY should capture the title with its star Kate Rosettie taking the individual honors.

GIRLS C (3:15 PM)

New York’s #10 team Queensbury did not make it into the championship race, so it should steamroll this one, and it is possible that on top of that its best two girls, Danielle Winslow and Carly Wynn, take 1-2 individually, as they rested last weekend when the rest of their team finished 2^nd at the Grout Run. Rhode Island’s LaSalle, a Northeast bubble team, will finish right behind them.

GIRLS D (3:25 PM)

Bay Shore NY has been a very successful program for the past few years but has been hit by graduation quite hard. Nevertheless, they should take this division handily. Individually, it will be Jillian Smith’s first trip to Van Cortlandt, and it should be interesting how the New Jersey 800m champion and mile star from Southern Regional will handle this short course after her 19:24 Holmdel debut last Saturday. Do not be surprised if she wins this one as well.

GIRLS E (3:37 PM)

This might be the best non-Easterns girls’ race of the day. Ward Melville NY, ranked #9 in the state, should take this one narrowly over local favorites Bronxville NY, a traditionally strong program, and a Northeast bubble team Cranston West RI. Melville was third at Ocean State Invitational two weeks ago, and today’s competition will be much less demanding. Their Suejin Ahn could also grab the individual gold.

GIRLS F (3:49 PM)

The last race of the day should go to one of the best squads from New Jersey, Lenape, which last weekend won the big school division at Shore Coaches Invitational, and is a bubble team in the region. Individually, Jaclyn Marshall of Kings Park NY, one of the best runners in the state, looks like the favorite.

BOYS PREVIEW

The boys’ field has traditionally been split into six races of almost equal strength, but as its name suggests, the “A race” promises to have the most exciting individual battle between Brandon Jarrett and Doug Smith, and well as the deepest team competition. The B race, on the other hand, features a showdown between the #1 teams in the Northeast and Southeast, Danbury CT and Oakton VA. With the exception of Brookline MA and Baylor TN, the top 4 teams from New York, Northeast, and Southeast are all running, making this one of the most exceptional meets of the entire US cross country season.

BOYS A (1:16 PM)

Like a Hitchcock movie, the varsity portion of the meet will start with a bang, nay, an explosion to build suspense for the rest of the day, with two of the best harriers in the United States meeting for the first time this year. Brandon Jarrett of St. Benedict’s Academy and Doug Smith of Gill St. Bernard’s are without a doubt the best two runners in New Jersey, and they are ranked respectively 6^th and 13^th in the DyeStat Top 25 national list. They have been getting close to the 15-minute mark in 5k races recently, and if they get to push each other through the race, they could register a spectacular time.

However, as I type this less than 48 hours before the gun, there is a Biblical flood coming down from the skies outside the window, so the course is likely to be water-damaged if not still muddy on Saturday. Thus, Tom Gruenewald’s 12:10.6 course record from last year will probably be safe despite the best intentions of both parties involved. The short 2.5 mile course will probably favor Jarrett, but Smith could pull as upset if he runs a smart race and pulls away before they hit the last 550m straightaway.

Not to be outdone, this could also be the deepest boys team race of the day, with three teams ranked in top 6 in their region. vNew York’s Shaker (#3) and Smithtown (#6) will be challenged by Merrimack NH, Northeast #6, in what should be a very close battle. vShaker finished fifth, second, and second is its last three invitationals and is hungry to finally win something. Smithtown had not faced major competition this year until last week’s defeat of Arlington at Sunken Meadow, while Merrimack’s biggest accomplishment was winning the Ocean State Invitational two weeks ago. Other impressive teams include Niskayuna NY (bubble team), Cicero NY, and Lincoln-Sudbury MA.

BOYS B (1:27 PM)

The 2007 edition of Thrilla in Bronxilla features the best team in the Northeast, Danbury CT, and the best of the Southeast, Oakton VA. Who will be Muhammad Ali and who will be Joe Frazier probably depends on how race-sharp Danbury is. So far they have run only one major meet in Hartford a few weeks ago. Last weekend was supposed to be their tune-up race at Wickham Park, but their plans melted away with the heat-caused meet cancellation. Thus, Manhattan will be Danbury’s second race of the season, and for their star Matt Terry, who was nursing an injury in September, the first major outing of fall 2007! Will this inexperience suffice against Oakton, which has a tight pack and two weeks ago finished second to Medina OH in very strong Maymont Invitational?

Behind these two, Washingtonville NY should capture third with Holy Ghost Prep PA, Chaminade NY, and West Windsor Plainsboro North NJ right behind.

The individual race is loaded as well. The two top teams will start out with very low scores, as both Will Ahearn and Matt Terry of Danbury, as well as Neal Hendricks and Joe LoRusso of Oakton should all finish in top 6 or 8, with the Danbury duo holding the slight edge. During the awards ceremony LoRusso should not be confused with Joe Rosa of West Windsor Plainsboro North NJ, a freshman who last Saturday dropped a stunning 16:24 at Holmdel, almost breaking the freshman course record. But the highest honors might well go to New Yorkers, Colby Delbene of Pawling (ranked #3 in the state by Tullyrunners) and Julian Scheinbaum of Scarsdale (ranked #10). This might not be as fast as Jarrett-Smith, but perhaps the deepest race in terms of quality individual performances.

BOYS C (1:39 PM)

Queensbury, ranked #1 in New York, should win this one easily. Last Saturday they continued their undefeated streak by winning Grout Invitational. Liverpool, a NY bubble team, has a very solid top three but not as much depth. Fayetteville-Manlius is not the same squad as when they owned this course (among others) a couple of years ago but should make a run for top spots, while Clarence NY and Thomas Jefferson VA will complete the top five.

Queensbury’s Matt Flint is favored to take the win as this race is not as strong on the individual side as the others.

BOYS D (1:51 PM)

The second best team in the Southeast, Midlothian VA, is coming up to Van Cortlandt to face off against rapidly improving North Penn PA, which moved up to #4 in the Northeast this week after dominating the Salesianum Invitational last weekend. The short course should favor the Pennsylvanians who are a middle distance powerhouse. Ithaca, falling to #8 in New York, should easily take 3^rd if not better.

The spectators will be privileged to see a great battle for individual glory between Midlothian’s Jason Witt, ranked #20 in the United States by DyeStat, and North Penn’s Zack Hoagland who ran the 4^th best time in the history of the Salesianum course, just a little bit slower than Alan Webb. Based on that performance alone, Hogland could take it all here. But do not forget Pat DuPont from Fairport, who has the 4^th best Tullyrunners rating among NY harriers.

BOYS E (2:03 PM)

Perhaps the deepest boys race today. This one should be decided between Germantown Friends PA, ranked #3 in the Northeast, and Brentsville VA, which just moved up to #4 in the Southeast. In their last major race two weeks ago at Paul Short, the Philly team knocked out another top Southeast team, Quince Orchard MD, so it should be the slight favorite. But Brentsville also beat Quince Orchard last week, beating them by 25 points at the Octoberfest Invitational, so the score could be very close. Canadians from Thousand Islands are the unknown factor, so don’t be surprised if they turn out to be better than either American team. Henderson PA is another bubble team who is looking to make some noise.

Just like in the team competition, the individual crown should be decided between harriers from the top three US teams. Max Kaulbach of Germantown has gotten and Honorable Mention in DyeStat’s latest Top 25 national list. Ray Delgado of Brentsville ran 15:58 to take 5^th in the deep Octoberfest field last weekend. And Chris Aldrich of Henderson, one of the best Pennsylvania harriers, will be running his first major race of the year here. It’s anybody’s guess who will come out on top.

BOYS F (2:15 PM)

Two weeks ago Warwick Valley and Don Bosco Prep handily won their divisions at the Warwick Mania meet, so it will be quite exciting to see them go head-to-head. WV, ranked #4 in New York (and some say they should be higher) are slight favorites but this time will not have the advantage of their home course. Cornwall, #9 in New York, is coming off its Brewster Invitational triumph and should be third.

Individually, Peter Dorrell of Blacksburg VA is currently ranked #14 in the nation by DyeStat and has been beating the top runners in Virginia and the Southeast, so he could get another scalp here. His major challengers include Brian Leung of West Windsor Plainsboro South NJ, who last week won his Shore Coaches race by over a minute in 15:52, as well as the top two teams’ leaders – Brad Ackerman of WV and Rob Molke of DBP.

BOYS G (2:27 PM)

The last varsity boys race of the day should be dominated by Shenendehowa, ranked #2 in New York. Their last major outing was the Bowdoin Classic at the end of September, where they placed second to Brookline MA. At that meet, they edged CBA of New Jersey by 21 points, so the Colts will now get their chance for revenge. Also in contention will be another Jersey team, Morris Hills, fresh off a good performance at Shore Coaches Invitational, where they won their division with a better time average than CBA. The only team that could break up these three is probably Shoreham-Wading River, a bubble team from New York.

Individually, it should be a duel between two of the best runners in New York. Kyle Merber of Half-Hollow Hills is ranked #5 on Tully’s NY leaderboard while Shen’s Mike Danaher is #7, so it should be a close battle.